Micron Technology Compared to Nvidia's Growth Trajectory
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy MU?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Significant Revenue Growth: Micron Technology reported a 57% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 FY2026, with adjusted earnings soaring 169% to $5.5 billion, showcasing strong performance driven by AI demand, which may attract more investor interest.
- Competitive Pressure: Despite strong demand for Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM), significant competition from Samsung and SK Hynix poses a threat, especially with rumors that Micron's HBM4 chips failed to meet Nvidia's requirements, potentially impacting market share.
- Stock Volatility Risk: Micron is viewed as a cyclical stock, with investors concerned that the current memory supply-demand imbalance could quickly evaporate, leading to a sharp decline in share price, which explains its low forward P/E ratio of 11.8.
- AI Demand Outlook: Despite cyclical challenges, analysts believe that the demand for Micron's high-performance memory driven by AI will continue to grow, potentially positioning it closer to Nvidia than Intel in future market competition.
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Analyst Views on MU
Wall Street analysts forecast MU stock price to fall
26 Analyst Rating
24 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 420.950
Low
235.00
Averages
336.12
High
500.00
Current: 420.950
Low
235.00
Averages
336.12
High
500.00
About MU
Micron Technology, Inc. provides memory and storage solutions. The Company delivers a portfolio of high-performance dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND, and NOR memory and storage products through its Micron and Crucial brands. The Company's products enable advancing in artificial intelligence (AI) and compute-intensive applications. Its segments include Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU), Mobile Business Unit (MBU), Embedded Business Unit (EBU), and Storage Business Unit (SBU). CNBU segment includes memory products and solutions sold into the data center, PC, graphics, and networking markets. MBU segment includes memory and storage products sold into the smartphone and other mobile-device markets. EBU segment includes memory and storage products and solutions sold into the intelligent edge through the automotive, industrial, and consumer embedded markets. SBU segment includes SSDs and component-level storage solutions sold into the data center, PC, and consumer markets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Demand Drivers: The surge in demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), particularly for AI training and inference, has led hyperscalers to increase their chip budgets, directly boosting Micron's sales, with projected earnings per share reaching $8.42 in 2026.
- Price Increases: Due to a shortage of DRAM memory chips, Micron's average selling price rose 20% sequentially in Q1, with gross margins expanding from 46% to 57%, enhancing the company's profitability and competitive position in a fierce market.
- Future Outlook: While Micron plans to invest $20 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, the cyclical nature of the industry suggests potential volatility in its earnings, with analysts raising their earnings expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $33.73 and $43.54 per share, respectively.
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- Stock Surge: Micron Technology's stock has skyrocketed 250% since September, achieving a market cap exceeding $460 billion, reflecting strong market confidence in its future growth and raising questions about its potential to reach a $1 trillion valuation soon.
- Demand Drivers: The surge in demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), particularly for AI training and inference, has led hyperscalers to increase their chip budgets, directly boosting Micron's sales, with projected earnings per share reaching $8.42 in 2026.
- Price Increases: Due to a shortage of DRAM memory chips, Micron's average selling price rose 20% sequentially in Q1, with gross margins expanding from 46% to 57%, enhancing the company's profitability and competitive position in a fierce market.
- Future Outlook: While Micron plans to invest $20 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, the cyclical nature of the industry suggests potential volatility in its earnings, with analysts raising their earnings expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $33.73 and $43.54 per share, respectively.
See More
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- Massive Investment: Micron plans to invest $50 billion in Boise, Idaho, to build two new 600,000-square-foot chip factories, expected to open in mid-2027 and by the end of 2028, aimed at addressing the unprecedented global DRAM supply tightness.
- Global Expansion: In addition to the Boise factories, Micron is constructing a $100 billion facility in Syracuse, NY, and a $9.6 billion factory in Hiroshima, Japan, bringing total investments to $200 billion to break the AI memory bottleneck.
- Cash Flow and Financial Pressure: Although Micron generates over $22 billion in cash flow before capital expenditures, its cash reserves are only around $10 billion, indicating significant financial pressure that could impact future stability amid aggressive expansion plans.
- Market Reaction Volatility: Following the investment announcement, Micron's stock fell 3% but rebounded by 6.9%, reflecting market confidence in its long-term growth potential, although short-term risks related to DRAM price fluctuations remain a concern.
See More
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Samsung's Memory Chip Prices: Samsung Electronics experienced a positive impact from a report indicating rising prices for its advanced memory chips.
Impact on Micron Technology: The price surge is expected to benefit Micron Technology, Samsung's U.S. competitor, although Micron's shares were declining in early trading.
See More
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- Surging Demand: The rapid expansion of AI data centers has led to a significant increase in demand for memory chips, making Micron Technology one of the top performers in recent months, with investor returns soaring by 420%.
- Market Outlook: Market research firm TrendForce projects that memory market revenue will skyrocket from $235 billion last year to $552 billion by 2026, indicating strong growth potential that further solidifies Micron's market position.
- Earnings Expectations: Consensus estimates suggest Micron's earnings per share could reach $33.73 in the current fiscal year, quadrupling from last year, and while growth rates may cool in the coming years, the ongoing demand for AI servers is expected to sustain its profitability.
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