<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
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<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
Citi's Ratings and Target Prices for Chinese Developers (Table)
Citi's Ratings for Chinese Property Developers: Citi has provided investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, with ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Sell/High Risk" based on their performance and short selling ratios.
Target Prices Overview: Target prices for selected developers include Agile Group at HKD 0.53, C&D International Group at HKD 22.5, and China Overseas at HKD 17.2, reflecting varying levels of investor confidence.
Citi's Ratings for Brokerage Platforms: The investment ratings for Chinese brokerage platforms and project managers also indicate a "Buy" recommendation for companies like KE Holdings and Greentown Management, with target prices set at USD 22.6 and HKD 3.45, respectively.
Market Reactions and Short Selling: The report highlights significant short selling activity across various stocks, indicating market volatility and investor caution, particularly in the context of the Chinese real estate sector.
