Morgan Stanley's 2026 Outlook: The report provides forecasts for the price-to-book (PB), return on equity (ROE), and dividend yield of various Chinese banks' H-shares for the year 2026.
Bank Performance Metrics: Key banks such as ABC, ICBC, and CCB show varying PB ratios, ROE percentages, and dividend yields, with ICBC having the lowest PB at 0.48x and CM Bank leading in ROE at 12.6%.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for each bank, indicating significant short selling activity, particularly for PSBC and CM Bank, with ratios of 51.978% and 45.638%, respectively.
Market Reactions: The stock prices of the banks reflect mixed performance, with some banks experiencing slight increases while others show declines, highlighting the volatility in the Chinese financial sector.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00939 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00939 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00939 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00939 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 7.770
Low
Averages
High
Current: 7.770
Low
Averages
High
M Stanley
maintain
$9.9
Al Analysis
2025-12-24
Reason
M Stanley
Price Target
$9.9
Al Analysis
2025-12-24
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for CCB (China Construction Bank) was kept at "Overweight" due to an increase in its target price to HKD 9.9 by Morgan Stanley. This suggests a positive outlook on the stock's performance, indicating that analysts expect it to outperform the market or its sector.
M Stanley
M Stanley
Neutral
to
Neutral
maintain
2025-12-19
Reason
M Stanley
M Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-19
maintain
Neutral
to
Neutral
Reason
The analyst rating for ICBC (01398.HK) is "Neutral" with a target price adjustment from 5.81 to 5.8. The reasoning behind this rating is not explicitly stated in the provided text, but it can be inferred from the context that the overall market conditions for Chinese banks are being considered. The related news mentions that Morgan Stanley sees "absolute upside potential" for Chinese banks and anticipates a cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by the People's Bank of China in the first quarter of 2026. This suggests a cautious outlook for ICBC, reflecting a balance between potential upside and current market performance, leading to a neutral stance rather than a more aggressive buy or sell recommendation.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for 00939
Unlock Now
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
upgrade
2025-12-19
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-19
upgrade
Reason
Morgan Stanley adjusted its earnings forecasts for CCB (00939.HK) primarily due to a slower recovery pace of state-owned banks' net interest margins (NIMs), which led to a reduction in NIM forecasts for 2025-27. However, the broker also noted higher-than-expected growth in fee income for 3Q25, prompting an increase in the relevant forecasts. As a result, Morgan Stanley slightly raised its 2025 post-tax net profit forecast for CCB by 0.1%, while lowering the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. Consequently, the target price for CCB was elevated from HKD9.5 to HKD9.9, leading to a rating of Overweight.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
maintain
2025-11-17
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
2025-11-17
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from Goldman Sachs is based on the 3Q25 results of the six major SOE Chinese banks, which met expectations and showed positive growth in PPOP and NPAT, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecasts. The narrowing decline in Net Interest Margin (NIM) and cost savings in funding were highlighted as key factors that positioned the banks favorably to maintain stable NIMs. Despite an anticipated slowdown in loan growth in the short term, the overall performance led Goldman Sachs to raise their PPOP/NPAT forecasts for 2025-27 by an average of 1%, while keeping the ratings unchanged and slightly increasing target prices for most banks.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
