KeyBanc Lowers Price Target for Viper Energy (VNOM) to $54, Maintains Overweight Rating
Analyst Ratings and Price Target: KeyBanc analyst Tim Rezvan lowered Viper Energy Inc.'s price target to $54 while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting updated natural gas price forecasts and production estimates post-acquisition of Sitio Royalties Corp. All covering analysts continue to rate the stock as a Buy.
Company Position and Growth Potential: Viper Energy Inc. is recognized as the largest public minerals company, with strong growth prospects driven by organic expansion, selective acquisitions, and buybacks, alongside plans to sell noncore assets to unlock additional value.
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- Price Fluctuation Analysis: VNOM's 52-week low is $34.71, with a high of $52.03, and the last trade at $38.63 indicates stability within this range, potentially influencing investor buying decisions.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $38.63 is close to the 52-week low, suggesting a cautious short-term market sentiment towards the stock, prompting investors to monitor future market dynamics to assess risk.
- Technical Indicator Reference: VNOM's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, which may attract more technical analysis investors, thereby impacting future trading volume and price movements.
- Industry Comparison: Compared to other energy stocks, VNOM's price performance shows notable volatility, leading investors to consider overall industry trends and individual stock performance differences to formulate more effective investment strategies.
- Position Change: Nemes Rush Group fully liquidated its 319,503 shares of Viper Energy during Q3, with an estimated transaction value of $12.18 million, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Portfolio Adjustment: This exit reduced Viper Energy's stake from 1.33% to 0%, reflecting a portfolio hygiene move after experiencing market volatility, which long-term investors should consider.
- Market Performance: Viper Energy shares are currently priced at $38.48, down 20% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's approximately 15.5% gain during the same period, suggesting a lack of market confidence in its future earnings.
- Cash Flow Distribution: Despite Viper Energy producing over 108,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and generating $165 million in cash available for distribution in Q3, the reported net loss due to non-cash impairment charges indicates challenges in its profitability model.
- Divestment Action: Nemes Rush Group sold 319,503 shares of Viper Energy in Q3, with an estimated transaction value of $12.18 million, marking a complete exit from the company and indicating caution towards volatility in energy stocks.
- Holding Change: As of September 30, Nemes Rush reported no holdings in Viper Energy, which previously constituted 1.33% of its reportable AUM, reflecting a strategic response to market fluctuations.
- Stock Performance: Viper Energy shares are currently priced at $38.48, down 20% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which has risen by 15.5% in the same period, highlighting its relative weakness in the market.
- Cash Flow Distribution: Despite Viper Energy producing over 108,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and generating $165 million in pro forma cash available for distribution in Q3, a net loss was reported due to non-cash impairment charges, indicating challenges in its profitability model.
Dividend Predictability: Dividend amounts for companies like Viper Energy Inc are influenced by profitability, making them unpredictable; the recent dividend yield is 3.3%.
Options Trading Insights: The stock's historical volatility and trading history can guide decisions on options, such as selling covered calls at specific strike prices.
Current Market Activity: On a recent trading day, S&P 500 options showed a put:call ratio of 0.46, indicating a preference for call options among traders compared to the long-term median.
Author's Perspective: The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Nasdaq, Inc.

New Investment in Viper Energy: Guardian Wealth Management, Inc. disclosed a new position in Viper Energy worth approximately $5.12 million, representing 3.02% of the fund's assets under management as of September 30, 2025.
Performance Overview: Viper Energy has shown strong performance over the past decade, with a stock increase of 298% and a current dividend yield of 5.8%, making it attractive for income-oriented investors.
Business Model: The company operates on a royalty-based model, which allows it to generate steady cash flows while minimizing risks associated with direct oil and gas operations.
Market Context: Despite its strong historical performance, Viper Energy's stock has recently declined by 15.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 30.4 percentage points.
Market Rotation Insight: Goldman Sachs highlights a recurring trend where underperforming stocks from the previous year, termed "laggards," often outperform the S&P 500 in the first quarter of the new year, based on 23 years of market data.
2025 Laggards Performance: The current laggards for 2025 are showing significant underperformance, with an average decline of 19% and a 36% drop relative to the S&P 500, indicating a larger pool of beaten-down stocks than usual.
Potential Recovery Stocks: Goldman Sachs has identified several stocks, including Fortinet, Pool Corp., and Hormel Foods, that are considered mispriced and could lead a rally in early 2026, despite most analysts being neutral or bearish on them.
Caution on Predictions: While the laggard-to-leader strategy has historically shown promise, it is not guaranteed, and investors should remain cautious as January 2026 approaches, as it may bring unexpected movements from previously overlooked stocks.










