M Stanley Slightly Increases CHINA LIFE's Target Price to HKD25.7, Maintains Overweight Rating

Goldman Sachs adjusted its analyst rating for CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) based on the company's strong performance in its 3Q25 results, particularly noting that its investment income exceeded expectations. This led to a significant increase in their full-year net profit forecast by 69% and a 7% increase in the 2025-27 first-year premium forecasts. Additionally, the positive performance of the bank insurance sales channel and management's optimistic outlook for 2026 contributed to the adjustments. Goldman Sachs also raised its per-share dividend forecasts by 10% due to an expanded investment portfolio and stronger premium inflow, with this year's dividend expected to grow by 23% YoY, surpassing previous estimates. Despite these positive adjustments, the target price was raised from HKD22.5 to HKD24.5, while maintaining a Neutral rating.

CMB International maintained a Buy rating for China Life due to the company's impressive 3Q25 results, which showed a nearly doubling of net profit to RMB126 billion, representing a 92% year-over-year increase. This strong performance, driven by both insurance service results and investment results, led CMB International to raise its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY2025-27 and revise the FY2025 new business value (NBV) growth forecast to 38%. Additionally, the target price for China Life was increased from HK$29 to HK$31, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

The analyst rating for CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) is set at "Overweight" due to several key factors highlighted in the article. Firstly, the company reported the highest earnings growth among its peers in 3Q25, with a remarkable net profit increase of 60.5% for the first nine months of 2025. This performance translates to an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 88.3% for 3Q25 and 39.4% for 9M25, indicating strong profitability. Additionally, the value of new business (VONB) accelerated significantly to 41.8% in 9M25, up from 20.3% in the first half of the year. Morgan Stanley noted that CHINA LIFE outperformed most of its peers across multiple indicators and that the management has a positive outlook for the upcoming year. These factors contributed to the positive analyst rating and the target price of HKD25.7.