Investment Comparison: SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Size Comparison: SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with an IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion, while Rocket Lab only achieved $602 million in revenue, reflecting a significant disparity in market scale.
- Profitability Analysis: Neither company is profitable yet, but SpaceX's Starlink business contributed $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, serving as its main profit driver, whereas Rocket Lab's free cash flow was negative $321.8 million in 2025, leaving its profitability outlook uncertain.
- Technology and Product Differences: SpaceX has transformed into a diversified tech company, with 93% of its market opportunities stemming from AI and other non-space businesses, while Rocket Lab focuses on aerospace, becoming the second-largest launch provider in the U.S. with its Electron rocket, and the successful launch of its Neutron rocket will directly challenge SpaceX's core business.
- Risks and Valuation: Both companies face execution risks, with Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket experiencing multiple delays, while SpaceX's AI segment lost $6.4 billion in 2025, prompting investors to consider their high valuations and potential strategic risks.
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Analyst Views on RKLB
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 114.780
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
Current: 114.780
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Successful Launch Record: Since going public in 2021, Rocket Lab has completed over 80 successful launches, deploying more than 250 satellites, demonstrating its robust capabilities and the growing demand in the commercial space sector.
- Development of New Rocket: The company is developing a medium-class rocket named Neutron, tailored for constellation deployment, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in both national security and commercial markets.
- Increased Industry Influence: Rocket Lab's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 not only boosts its brand recognition but may also attract more investor interest, further advancing its strategic positioning in the rapidly growing space market.
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- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 4.1 to 48.9 in June, surpassing expectations of 46.0, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence that could stimulate spending and support economic growth.
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- Opportunities for AI Firms: Cramer highlighted that SpaceX's success could encourage other companies, particularly in the AI sector like Anthropic, to quickly enter the market for funding, thereby accelerating their technology development and market expansion.
- Oil Prices and Inflation: Cramer noted that developments in the Middle East could impact oil prices, suggesting that a lasting peace could lead to lower oil prices, which would help alleviate inflationary pressures and create a favorable environment for economic recovery.
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- Positive Market Reaction: Cramer notes that SpaceX's success could prompt companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon to sell stock to fund their AI initiatives, reflecting strong market interest and potential growth in AI investments.
- Economic Indicators to Watch: Cramer advises investors to pay attention to upcoming housing starts and retail sales data, as these metrics will provide crucial insights for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, especially amid signs of economic slowdown.
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See More
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See More
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- Strong SpaceX IPO Performance: SpaceX's stock surged 19.2% on its IPO, achieving a market capitalization of $2.11 trillion, indicating robust market confidence in its growth potential, which may attract more investor interest in the space sector.
- Rocket Lab's Stock Decline: Despite a bullish market backdrop, Rocket Lab's shares fell 10.8% on Friday, reflecting a shift in investor funds towards SpaceX, resulting in valuation pressure, with current prices down approximately 32% from their all-time high.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The successful launch of SpaceX has negatively affected investor confidence in other space companies; although Rocket Lab has risen 275% over the past year, its valuation may continue to be influenced by SpaceX's stock fluctuations in the near term.
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See More
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- Inclusion in Nasdaq-100: Rocket Lab announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index effective June 22, 2026, marking a significant milestone that reflects its evolution from a small company to a global space leader and underscores its importance in the space economy.
- Successful Launch Record: Since going public in 2021, Rocket Lab has completed over 80 successful launches, deploying more than 250 satellites, demonstrating its robust capabilities and the growing demand in the commercial space sector.
- Development of New Rocket: The company is developing a medium-class rocket named Neutron, tailored for constellation deployment, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in both national security and commercial markets.
- Increased Industry Influence: Rocket Lab's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 not only boosts its brand recognition but may also attract more investor interest, further advancing its strategic positioning in the rapidly growing space market.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Hopes of Iran Peace Agreement
- Market Rally: US stocks extended Thursday's rally on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.50%, the Dow Jones up 0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 0.64%, reflecting investor optimism about a potential interim peace agreement between the US and Iran.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 4.1 to 48.9 in June, surpassing expectations of 46.0, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence that could stimulate spending and support economic growth.
- Oil Price Decline: WTI crude oil prices fell 3.23% on Friday amid hopes for a US-Iran agreement, which may lower transportation costs and positively impact fuel-dependent sectors like airlines.
- Strong IPO Performance: SpaceX closed at $161 per share on Friday, up 19% from Thursday's IPO price of $135, indicating robust market demand and potentially fostering positive sentiment for upcoming AI company IPOs.
See More
SpaceX's Successful IPO Sparks New Wave of AI Offerings
- Market Enthusiasm: SpaceX's IPO closed at $161 per share, giving it a market value of approximately $2.1 trillion, capturing significant attention from both Wall Street and Main Street, indicating strong investor interest in emerging tech companies.
- Opportunities for AI Firms: Cramer highlighted that SpaceX's success could encourage other companies, particularly in the AI sector like Anthropic, to quickly enter the market for funding, thereby accelerating their technology development and market expansion.
- Oil Prices and Inflation: Cramer noted that developments in the Middle East could impact oil prices, suggesting that a lasting peace could lead to lower oil prices, which would help alleviate inflationary pressures and create a favorable environment for economic recovery.
- Future Market Outlook: Cramer believes that SpaceX's successful debut supports market sentiment, indicating a potentially positive market performance in the upcoming week, especially with the approaching Federal Reserve meeting and economic data releases.
See More
SpaceX's Successful IPO May Spark AI Offering Wave
- Successful IPO of SpaceX: SpaceX's debut at $161 per share, valuing the company at approximately $2.1 trillion, injects confidence into the market and may encourage more AI-related firms like Anthropic to pursue IPOs.
- Positive Market Reaction: Cramer notes that SpaceX's success could prompt companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon to sell stock to fund their AI initiatives, reflecting strong market interest and potential growth in AI investments.
- Economic Indicators to Watch: Cramer advises investors to pay attention to upcoming housing starts and retail sales data, as these metrics will provide crucial insights for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, especially amid signs of economic slowdown.
- Geopolitical Impact: Cramer highlights that developments in the Middle East could affect oil prices, suggesting that a lasting peace could lead to lower oil prices, which would help alleviate inflationary pressures and create a more favorable environment for the market.
See More
Rocket Lab Shares Drop 10.8% Amid SpaceX IPO Surge
- Significant Price Drop: Rocket Lab's shares fell 10.8% on Friday, closing at $102.39, despite the S&P 500 rising 0.5%, indicating a loss of confidence in the company amidst broader market gains.
- Impact of SpaceX IPO: The decline in Rocket Lab's valuation is closely tied to SpaceX's IPO, which saw a 19.2% increase on its first trading day, reaching a market cap of $2.11 trillion, prompting investors to sell off other space stocks to fund their investments in SpaceX.
- Yearly Performance Comparison: Although Rocket Lab's stock is down approximately 32% from its all-time high, it has still risen 275% over the past year, reflecting its long-term growth potential, yet it remains heavily influenced by SpaceX's market performance in the short term.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: The ongoing trading of SpaceX is likely to continue affecting Rocket Lab and other space-tech valuations, and investors should monitor SpaceX's stock fluctuations to gauge market sentiment and make informed investment decisions.
See More
SpaceX IPO Triggers Market Volatility
- Strong SpaceX IPO Performance: SpaceX's stock surged 19.2% on its IPO, achieving a market capitalization of $2.11 trillion, indicating robust market confidence in its growth potential, which may attract more investor interest in the space sector.
- Rocket Lab's Stock Decline: Despite a bullish market backdrop, Rocket Lab's shares fell 10.8% on Friday, reflecting a shift in investor funds towards SpaceX, resulting in valuation pressure, with current prices down approximately 32% from their all-time high.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The successful launch of SpaceX has negatively affected investor confidence in other space companies; although Rocket Lab has risen 275% over the past year, its valuation may continue to be influenced by SpaceX's stock fluctuations in the near term.
- Caution for Investors: Analysts advise potential Rocket Lab investors to closely monitor SpaceX's market performance, as its stock volatility could directly impact the valuation outlook for Rocket Lab and other space-tech firms.
See More
