HF Sinclair anticipates decreased capital expenditures in 2026 due to lower maintenance expenses.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 09 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Capital Spending Plans: HF Sinclair plans to reduce its FY 2026 capital spending to $775 million, which is $100 million less than its estimated capex for 2025, due to anticipated lower maintenance costs.
Cost Reductions: The decrease in spending is primarily attributed to lower costs for turnarounds and catalysts, projected at $325 million compared to the $410 million forecasted for the current year.
Refining Segment Investment: The company forecasts $225 million in capital expenditure for its refining segment in 2026, a slight decrease from the $240 million estimated for 2025.
Market Outlook: Despite the peak cycle in refining, HF Sinclair is expected to continue shareholder distributions, indicating confidence in its financial stability.
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Analyst Views on DINO
Wall Street analysts forecast DINO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DINO is 61.36 USD with a low forecast of 53.00 USD and a high forecast of 68.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 51.250
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
Current: 51.250
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
About DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent energy company that produces and markets light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel and other specialty products. Its segments include Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The Refining segment includes the operations of its El Dorado, Tulsa, Puget Sound, Navajo, Woods Cross, Parco and Casper Refineries and Asphalt. The Renewables segment includes the operations of the Artesia, Cheyenne and Sinclair RDUs and the Artesia PTU. The Marketing segment includes branded fuel sales. The Lubricants & Specialties segment includes the operations of its Petro-Canada Lubricants, Red Giant Oil and Sonneborn businesses in addition to specialty lubricant products produced at its Tulsa West refinery. The Midstream segment includes petroleum product and crude pipelines, terminal, tankage and loading rack facilities, and refinery processing units that primarily support its refining operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
DDD Partners Reduces Stake in HF Sinclair by $6.45 Million in Q4
- Stake Reduction: DDD Partners sold 125,198 shares of HF Sinclair in Q4, amounting to an estimated $6.45 million transaction, indicating a strategic adjustment despite HF Sinclair's 44.8% price increase over the past year.
- Value Decline: The firm's quarter-end position in HF Sinclair decreased by $8.37 million, reflecting both the impact of share sales and stock price fluctuations, showcasing a cautious approach towards energy stocks.
- Portfolio Composition: HF Sinclair now represents only 0.85% of DDD Partners' reportable assets, contrasting sharply with its larger investments in mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, highlighting a focus on technology.
- Future Outlook: HF Sinclair reported a net income of $403 million in its latest earnings release, demonstrating strong cash generation; while the stake reduction does not indicate a fundamental breakdown, timely rebalancing is crucial amid cyclical fluctuations in the energy market.
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HF Sinclair (DINO) Named Among Best Energy Stocks for Dividends in 2026, Price Target Cut to $67
- Price Target Adjustment: Piper Sandler reduced HF Sinclair's price target from $68 to $67, yet this still indicates over a 39% upside potential, reflecting market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: The analyst cut HF Sinclair's Q4 2025 EPS estimate from $0.96 to $0.44, while also lowering EBITDA forecasts from $473 million to $358 million, primarily due to weaker-than-expected West Coast performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: The decline in refining capture rates and throughput on the West Coast is the main reason for the earnings forecast downgrade; however, Piper Sandler views these issues as 'non-recurring' and expects no long-term impact on the company's performance.
- Competitive Analysis: Despite the challenges faced by HF Sinclair, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing it still holds strong investment potential among energy stocks, especially when compared to other AI stocks.
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