Graphic Packaging Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy GPK?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Performance: Graphic Packaging reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, missing expectations by $0.06, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year but beating market expectations by $70 million, demonstrating some sales resilience in a stable market environment.
- 2026 Guidance: The company expects 2026 net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, both below consensus, reflecting negative impacts from inventory reduction and cash flow generation efforts.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Anticipated capital spending for 2026 is approximately $450 million, while expected Adjusted Free Cash Flow ranges from $700 million to $800 million, indicating a cautious approach to cost control and investment.
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Analyst Views on GPK
Wall Street analysts forecast GPK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPK is 17.00 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 23.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.200
Low
12.00
Averages
17.00
High
23.00
Current: 13.200
Low
12.00
Averages
17.00
High
23.00
About GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a consumer packaging provider. It produces consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. It designs and manufactures packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, cups and bowls made from unbleached paperboard, recycled paperboard, and bleached paperboard. Its segments include Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage, and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants (QSR) in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside the Americas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Graphic Packaging Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Graphic Packaging reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, missing expectations by $0.06, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year but beating market expectations by $70 million, demonstrating some sales resilience in a stable market environment.
- 2026 Guidance: The company expects 2026 net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, both below consensus, reflecting negative impacts from inventory reduction and cash flow generation efforts.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Anticipated capital spending for 2026 is approximately $450 million, while expected Adjusted Free Cash Flow ranges from $700 million to $800 million, indicating a cautious approach to cost control and investment.
See More
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- Sales Decline: Net sales for 2025 were $8.6 billion, down 2% from $8.8 billion in 2024, primarily due to a $150 million impact from the divestiture of the Augusta facility, indicating competitive pressures in the market.
- Significant Net Income Drop: The company's net income for 2025 was $444 million, a 32.5% decrease from $658 million in 2024, reflecting the impact of non-recurring items and amortization, highlighting challenges in profitability.
- EBITDA Decline: EBITDA for 2025 decreased by 20% to $1.342 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA at $1.395 billion, primarily driven by lower packaging prices and volumes, underscoring the urgency for cost control measures.
- Reduced Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $935 million, down 22.5% from $1.203 billion in 2024, indicating a more cautious investment strategy as the company navigates market challenges to enhance financial flexibility.
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- Investor Shift to Dividends: Amid market turbulence and uncertainty, many investors are turning to dividend-yielding stocks, which typically feature high free cash flows and substantial payouts to shareholders, thereby enhancing investor confidence and market stability.
- Analyst Ratings Overview: Benzinga offers insights into the latest analyst takes on high-yield stocks, allowing investors to visit the Analyst Stock Ratings page for informed decision-making, which is crucial during volatile market conditions.
- High-Yield Stocks in Materials: Within the materials sector, Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:KRO), Graphic Packaging Holding Co (NYSE:GPK), and Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (NYSE:SMG) are highlighted as attractive high-yield stocks, indicating significant investment potential in this industry.
- Analyst Accuracy Metrics: Benzinga's database enables traders to sort ratings by analyst accuracy, providing investors with a more reliable basis for decision-making, particularly when selecting high-dividend stocks in a fluctuating market.
See More
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Leadership Transition: New CEO Robbert Rietbroek emphasized the establishment of a transformation office and organizational changes to enhance transparency and accountability, aiming to drive operational improvements and cost savings without disrupting customer service, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position.
- Financial Performance: Fourth-quarter net sales reached $2.1 billion, remaining flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA at $311 million; despite pressures from declining prices and volumes, a $40 million foreign exchange benefit partially offset these impacts.
- Future Outlook: The company expects net sales for 2026 to range between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $1.050 billion to $1.250 billion, reflecting confidence in innovation-driven sales growth while planning to reduce capital expenditures to approximately $450 million.
- Inventory Management: Management plans to reduce inventory levels from 20% to 15%-16% of sales, emphasizing strict cost control and operational efficiency to navigate market uncertainties, ensuring sustainable growth for the company in the future.
See More
Geopolitical Tensions Resurface, Gold Rebounds
- Gold Price Surge: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) surged over 6%, surpassing $4,950 per ounce, marking its strongest trading day since November 2008, primarily due to easing concerns over tighter Federal Reserve policies.
- Silver's Strong Rebound: Silver prices climbed nearly 9% to $86, recovering from a more than 30% plunge over the previous two sessions, indicating a resurgence in demand for precious metals that may attract more investors.
- Energy Market Reaction: Crude oil rose 1.8% to $63 a barrel after U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone near a Navy aircraft carrier, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Tech Stocks Underperform: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 4.8%, marking its fifth consecutive daily decline, indicating waning market confidence in technology stocks, particularly in the software sector.
See More
GRAPHIC PACKAGING STOCK FALLS 3.3% FOLLOWING Q4 EARNINGS DISAPPOINTMENT
- Stock Performance: Graphic Packaging shares fell by 3.3% following the announcement of their Q4 earnings.
- Earnings Report: The decline in stock price was attributed to a miss in earnings expectations for the fourth quarter.
See More
Graphic Packaging Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Graphic Packaging reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, missing expectations by $0.06, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year but beating market expectations by $70 million, demonstrating some sales resilience in a stable market environment.
- 2026 Guidance: The company expects 2026 net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, both below consensus, reflecting negative impacts from inventory reduction and cash flow generation efforts.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Anticipated capital spending for 2026 is approximately $450 million, while expected Adjusted Free Cash Flow ranges from $700 million to $800 million, indicating a cautious approach to cost control and investment.
See More
Graphic Packaging Reports 2025 Financial Results with Declining Sales and Income
- Sales Decline: Net sales for 2025 were $8.6 billion, down 2% from $8.8 billion in 2024, primarily due to a $150 million impact from the divestiture of the Augusta facility, indicating competitive pressures in the market.
- Significant Net Income Drop: The company's net income for 2025 was $444 million, a 32.5% decrease from $658 million in 2024, reflecting the impact of non-recurring items and amortization, highlighting challenges in profitability.
- EBITDA Decline: EBITDA for 2025 decreased by 20% to $1.342 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA at $1.395 billion, primarily driven by lower packaging prices and volumes, underscoring the urgency for cost control measures.
- Reduced Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $935 million, down 22.5% from $1.203 billion in 2024, indicating a more cautious investment strategy as the company navigates market challenges to enhance financial flexibility.
See More
