Grail's 20% Stock Decline Hides Potential Opportunities
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Trial Endpoint Failure: Grail's multicancer early detection test, Galleri, missed its primary endpoint in a landmark three-year, 142,000-person trial with the NHS, resulting in over a 20% stock decline in 2026, leading investors to doubt FDA approval and insurance coverage prospects.
- Sales Growth Momentum: Despite the disappointing trial results, Grail reported a 37% year-over-year increase in Galleri test sales in Q1 2026, with volumes rising 50% to 56,000, indicating growing market acceptance and demand that could lay the groundwork for future recovery.
- Follow-Up Data Outlook: Management anticipates that follow-up data six to twelve months post-trial will demonstrate the test's efficacy, particularly with detailed trial data to be presented at the ASCO meeting, which may influence physician and insurer decisions regarding Galleri's market acceptance.
- Insurance Coverage Potential: While the NHS-Galleri trial faced criticism for not meeting endpoints, the underlying data and ASCO presentation may support insurance coverage for Galleri, attracting risk-seeking investors interested in the stock's potential value.
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Analyst Views on GRAL
Wall Street analysts forecast GRAL stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 73.920
Low
38.00
Averages
60.86
High
83.71
Current: 73.920
Low
38.00
Averages
60.86
High
83.71
About GRAL
Grail, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on saving lives and shifting the paradigm in early cancer detection. The Company is focused on alleviating the global burden of cancer by using sequencing, population-scale clinical studies, and machine learning, software, and automation to detect and identify multiple deadly cancer types in earlier stages. Its targeted methylation-based platform can support the continuum of care for screening and precision oncology, including multi-cancer early detection in symptomatic patients, risk stratification, minimal residual disease detection, biomarker subtyping, treatment and recurrence monitoring. Its multi-cancer early detection test, the Galleri test, is a commercially available screening test for early detection of multiple types of cancer. The Galleri test can be used to screen for cancer before a person becomes symptomatic, when cancer may be more easily treated and potentially curable. The Galleri test can indicate the origin of the cancer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Grail's 20% Stock Decline Hides Potential Opportunities
- Trial Endpoint Failure: Grail's multicancer early detection test, Galleri, missed its primary endpoint in a landmark three-year, 142,000-person trial with the NHS, resulting in over a 20% stock decline in 2026, leading investors to doubt FDA approval and insurance coverage prospects.
- Sales Growth Momentum: Despite the disappointing trial results, Grail reported a 37% year-over-year increase in Galleri test sales in Q1 2026, with volumes rising 50% to 56,000, indicating growing market acceptance and demand that could lay the groundwork for future recovery.
- Follow-Up Data Outlook: Management anticipates that follow-up data six to twelve months post-trial will demonstrate the test's efficacy, particularly with detailed trial data to be presented at the ASCO meeting, which may influence physician and insurer decisions regarding Galleri's market acceptance.
- Insurance Coverage Potential: While the NHS-Galleri trial faced criticism for not meeting endpoints, the underlying data and ASCO presentation may support insurance coverage for Galleri, attracting risk-seeking investors interested in the stock's potential value.
See More
Grail Stock Volatility and Future Outlook
- Stock Volatility: Grail's stock was spun off from Illumina in June 2024, starting at $13.95 per share and peaking at $116.06 on January 22, 2026, but now trades around $60, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Trial Result Failure: Grail's Galleri blood test missed its primary endpoint in the largest NHS trial, prompting Canaccord Genuity to lower its price target from $105 to $80, reflecting investor disappointment in its potential.
- Revenue Growth and Losses: Despite Grail's revenue increasing from $93 million in 2023 to $147 million in 2025, with net losses narrowing from $1.47 billion to $408 million, analysts expect revenue to rise 25% to $224 million in 2027, with losses widening to $485 million, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Galleri has significant sales potential if FDA approval and insurance coverage are achieved, the NHS trial results suggest these catalysts may not materialize soon, requiring investors to approach this speculative opportunity with caution.
See More
Grail Shares Rise 14% Following Q1 Earnings Report
- Earnings Report Surge: Grail's stock rose 14% following its Q1 earnings report, despite a nearly 28% decline this year, indicating a market reassessment of its future potential.
- Clinical Trial Challenges: Although the trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, causing a stock crash in February, management plans to extend the follow-up period by 6-12 months to potentially improve outcomes and seek FDA approval.
- Testing Volume Growth: Galleri test volumes increased by 50% year-over-year, driving overall company revenue growth of 28% in Q1, demonstrating strong market demand for the product.
- ASCO Meeting Outlook: Grail will present detailed trial results at the ASCO meeting in late May, which could be pivotal for market acceptance, warranting investor attention.
See More
GRAIL, Inc. Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings with Growth in Test Volumes
- Significant Sales Growth: GRAIL sold over 56,000 Galleri tests in Q1, driving total screening revenue to $39.8 million, reflecting continued strong physician adoption and health system engagement, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the cancer screening market.
- Strong Financial Performance: The total revenue for the first quarter was $40.8 million, with screening revenue up 37% year-over-year, indicating a significant increase in market demand, despite a net loss of $93.2 million, showcasing strong revenue growth potential.
- FDA Review Progress: The company has completed its FDA PMA submission, which has been accepted for review, expected to provide crucial support for the market launch of the Galleri test, further boosting investor confidence in future growth.
- Stable Future Outlook: Management reiterated the revenue growth expectation for 2026 to be between 22% and 32%, and despite market uncertainties, the integration of Epic Aura and expansion of the sales network are anticipated to effectively enhance market penetration.
See More
GRAIL Reports Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Highlights: GRAIL's Q1 GAAP EPS of -$2.29 beats expectations by $0.47, indicating a positive trend in financial performance despite ongoing challenges.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $40.8M, a 28.3% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $1.65M, reflecting sustained demand for its products and boosting market confidence.
- Improved Gross Loss: Gross loss was $14.3M, an improvement of $5.6M or 28% from the previous year, showcasing progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Cash Reserves: As of March 31, 2026, GRAIL's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities totaled $823.1M, ensuring ample funding for future R&D and market expansion initiatives.
See More
GRAIL Presents NHS-Galleri Trial Results at ASCO 2026
- Large Participant Base: The NHS-Galleri trial and PATHFINDER 2 study enrolled over 174,000 participants, demonstrating the scientific rigor of the Galleri® multi-cancer early detection test, which is expected to significantly enhance the effectiveness of early cancer screening.
- Clinical Trial Design: The NHS-Galleri trial is the first randomized controlled study of an MCED test, designed to reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses through annual screening within England's National Health Service, thereby increasing early cancer detection rates.
- Data Presentation: GRAIL will present the complete dataset from the PATHFINDER 2 study, which includes over 32,000 evaluable participants, at the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting, further validating the clinical utility and safety profile of the Galleri test.
- Market Potential: Dr. Josh Ofman highlighted that over 70% of cancer deaths in the U.S. are from cancers without recommended screening tests, and the introduction of the Galleri test is poised to change this landscape by improving the accessibility and effectiveness of early cancer detection.
See More
Grail's 20% Stock Decline Hides Potential Opportunities
- Trial Endpoint Failure: Grail's multicancer early detection test, Galleri, missed its primary endpoint in a landmark three-year, 142,000-person trial with the NHS, resulting in over a 20% stock decline in 2026, leading investors to doubt FDA approval and insurance coverage prospects.
- Sales Growth Momentum: Despite the disappointing trial results, Grail reported a 37% year-over-year increase in Galleri test sales in Q1 2026, with volumes rising 50% to 56,000, indicating growing market acceptance and demand that could lay the groundwork for future recovery.
- Follow-Up Data Outlook: Management anticipates that follow-up data six to twelve months post-trial will demonstrate the test's efficacy, particularly with detailed trial data to be presented at the ASCO meeting, which may influence physician and insurer decisions regarding Galleri's market acceptance.
- Insurance Coverage Potential: While the NHS-Galleri trial faced criticism for not meeting endpoints, the underlying data and ASCO presentation may support insurance coverage for Galleri, attracting risk-seeking investors interested in the stock's potential value.
See More
Grail Stock Volatility and Future Outlook
- Stock Volatility: Grail's stock was spun off from Illumina in June 2024, starting at $13.95 per share and peaking at $116.06 on January 22, 2026, but now trades around $60, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Trial Result Failure: Grail's Galleri blood test missed its primary endpoint in the largest NHS trial, prompting Canaccord Genuity to lower its price target from $105 to $80, reflecting investor disappointment in its potential.
- Revenue Growth and Losses: Despite Grail's revenue increasing from $93 million in 2023 to $147 million in 2025, with net losses narrowing from $1.47 billion to $408 million, analysts expect revenue to rise 25% to $224 million in 2027, with losses widening to $485 million, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Galleri has significant sales potential if FDA approval and insurance coverage are achieved, the NHS trial results suggest these catalysts may not materialize soon, requiring investors to approach this speculative opportunity with caution.
See More
Grail Shares Rise 14% Following Q1 Earnings Report
- Earnings Report Surge: Grail's stock rose 14% following its Q1 earnings report, despite a nearly 28% decline this year, indicating a market reassessment of its future potential.
- Clinical Trial Challenges: Although the trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, causing a stock crash in February, management plans to extend the follow-up period by 6-12 months to potentially improve outcomes and seek FDA approval.
- Testing Volume Growth: Galleri test volumes increased by 50% year-over-year, driving overall company revenue growth of 28% in Q1, demonstrating strong market demand for the product.
- ASCO Meeting Outlook: Grail will present detailed trial results at the ASCO meeting in late May, which could be pivotal for market acceptance, warranting investor attention.
See More
GRAIL, Inc. Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings with Growth in Test Volumes
- Significant Sales Growth: GRAIL sold over 56,000 Galleri tests in Q1, driving total screening revenue to $39.8 million, reflecting continued strong physician adoption and health system engagement, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the cancer screening market.
- Strong Financial Performance: The total revenue for the first quarter was $40.8 million, with screening revenue up 37% year-over-year, indicating a significant increase in market demand, despite a net loss of $93.2 million, showcasing strong revenue growth potential.
- FDA Review Progress: The company has completed its FDA PMA submission, which has been accepted for review, expected to provide crucial support for the market launch of the Galleri test, further boosting investor confidence in future growth.
- Stable Future Outlook: Management reiterated the revenue growth expectation for 2026 to be between 22% and 32%, and despite market uncertainties, the integration of Epic Aura and expansion of the sales network are anticipated to effectively enhance market penetration.
See More
GRAIL Reports Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Highlights: GRAIL's Q1 GAAP EPS of -$2.29 beats expectations by $0.47, indicating a positive trend in financial performance despite ongoing challenges.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $40.8M, a 28.3% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $1.65M, reflecting sustained demand for its products and boosting market confidence.
- Improved Gross Loss: Gross loss was $14.3M, an improvement of $5.6M or 28% from the previous year, showcasing progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Cash Reserves: As of March 31, 2026, GRAIL's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities totaled $823.1M, ensuring ample funding for future R&D and market expansion initiatives.
See More
GRAIL Presents NHS-Galleri Trial Results at ASCO 2026
- Large Participant Base: The NHS-Galleri trial and PATHFINDER 2 study enrolled over 174,000 participants, demonstrating the scientific rigor of the Galleri® multi-cancer early detection test, which is expected to significantly enhance the effectiveness of early cancer screening.
- Clinical Trial Design: The NHS-Galleri trial is the first randomized controlled study of an MCED test, designed to reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses through annual screening within England's National Health Service, thereby increasing early cancer detection rates.
- Data Presentation: GRAIL will present the complete dataset from the PATHFINDER 2 study, which includes over 32,000 evaluable participants, at the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting, further validating the clinical utility and safety profile of the Galleri test.
- Market Potential: Dr. Josh Ofman highlighted that over 70% of cancer deaths in the U.S. are from cancers without recommended screening tests, and the introduction of the Galleri test is poised to change this landscape by improving the accessibility and effectiveness of early cancer detection.
See More
