GEO Group Issues Initial Financial Guidance for 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2h ago
0mins
Should l Buy GEO?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Performance: GEO Group reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.23, in line with expectations, while revenue reached $707.7 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year increase and beating market expectations by $40.47 million, indicating robust growth in the company's market position.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: The company anticipates a GAAP net income range of $0.99 to $1.07 per diluted share for 2026, with annual revenues projected between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, slightly below the consensus of $2.97 billion, reflecting a cautious outlook on future revenues.
- Adjusted EBITDA Expectations: GEO Group expects its adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to fall between $490 million and $510 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to manage costs and enhance profitability despite market challenges.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures of $120 million to $155 million for 2026, aimed at supporting future business expansion and operational efficiency improvements, showcasing its commitment to long-term growth.
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Analyst Views on GEO
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.110
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
Current: 16.110
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
About GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
GEO Group Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: GEO Group is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 12 before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $667.23 million, reflecting a 9.8% year-over-year growth.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, GEO has exceeded EPS estimates 38% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in its financial performance.
- Expectation Revisions: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, suggesting market caution regarding future performance.
- Credit Facility Expansion: GEO Group recently expanded its revolving credit facility by $100 million, demonstrating proactive liquidity management and providing financial backing for future business expansion.
See More
GEO Group CEO Announces Retirement, Founder Returns
- Executive Transition: GEO Group's CEO J. David Donahue has announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, indicating a significant leadership change that could impact investor confidence and the company's strategic direction.
- Founder Returns: Founder and Executive Chairman George Zoley will return as CEO on March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029, a decision that may bring stability to governance but could also prompt a reevaluation of his leadership style.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following this announcement, GEO Group's shares fell 3.5% in premarket trading to $15.28, reflecting market unease regarding the executive transition, which may affect investor sentiment in the short term.
- Financial Performance: GEO Group reported a GAAP EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $707.7 million, exceeding market expectations by $40.47 million, demonstrating the company's financial robustness, although leadership changes may impact future performance.
See More
GEO Group CEO Announces Retirement, Founder Returns to Leadership Role
- Executive Transition: GEO Group's CEO J. David Donahue has announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, marking a significant leadership change that could impact investor confidence and the company's strategic direction.
- Founder’s Return: Founder and Executive Chairman George C. Zoley will resume the role of CEO from March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029, expected to leverage his extensive experience to drive growth in correctional management and community reentry services.
- Business Development Potential: Since founding GEO in 1984, Zoley has been instrumental in developing new business opportunities, particularly in electronic monitoring and rehabilitation services, which are anticipated to expand the company's market share and service offerings.
- Company Scale and Impact: GEO operates 95 facilities with approximately 75,000 beds and a workforce nearing 20,000, and Zoley's return may enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness, especially in key markets like the U.S., Australia, and South Africa.
See More
GEO Group Issues Initial Financial Guidance for 2026
- Earnings Performance: GEO Group reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.23, in line with expectations, while revenue reached $707.7 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year increase and beating market expectations by $40.47 million, indicating robust growth in the company's market position.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: The company anticipates a GAAP net income range of $0.99 to $1.07 per diluted share for 2026, with annual revenues projected between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, slightly below the consensus of $2.97 billion, reflecting a cautious outlook on future revenues.
- Adjusted EBITDA Expectations: GEO Group expects its adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to fall between $490 million and $510 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to manage costs and enhance profitability despite market challenges.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures of $120 million to $155 million for 2026, aimed at supporting future business expansion and operational efficiency improvements, showcasing its commitment to long-term growth.
See More
GEO Group Declines by 9.4%, CoreCivic Decreases by 7.1%
Geographic Group Performance: The geographic group has experienced a decline of 9.4% in performance metrics.
Core Civic Decline: Core Civic has reported a decrease of 7.1% in its performance indicators.
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PRISON OPERATORS' STOCKS PLUMMET SIGNIFICANTLY
Prison Operators' Decline: The number of prison operators has sharply decreased, indicating significant changes in the correctional system.
Impact on Incarceration Rates: This decline may affect incarceration rates and the overall management of prison populations.
Policy Implications: The reduction in prison operators raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and practices in the justice system.
Future of Corrections: The trend suggests a potential shift towards alternative forms of rehabilitation and community-based corrections.
See More
GEO Group Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: GEO Group is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 12 before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $667.23 million, reflecting a 9.8% year-over-year growth.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, GEO has exceeded EPS estimates 38% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in its financial performance.
- Expectation Revisions: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, suggesting market caution regarding future performance.
- Credit Facility Expansion: GEO Group recently expanded its revolving credit facility by $100 million, demonstrating proactive liquidity management and providing financial backing for future business expansion.
See More
GEO Group CEO Announces Retirement, Founder Returns
- Executive Transition: GEO Group's CEO J. David Donahue has announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, indicating a significant leadership change that could impact investor confidence and the company's strategic direction.
- Founder Returns: Founder and Executive Chairman George Zoley will return as CEO on March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029, a decision that may bring stability to governance but could also prompt a reevaluation of his leadership style.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following this announcement, GEO Group's shares fell 3.5% in premarket trading to $15.28, reflecting market unease regarding the executive transition, which may affect investor sentiment in the short term.
- Financial Performance: GEO Group reported a GAAP EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $707.7 million, exceeding market expectations by $40.47 million, demonstrating the company's financial robustness, although leadership changes may impact future performance.
See More
GEO Group CEO Announces Retirement, Founder Returns to Leadership Role
- Executive Transition: GEO Group's CEO J. David Donahue has announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, marking a significant leadership change that could impact investor confidence and the company's strategic direction.
- Founder’s Return: Founder and Executive Chairman George C. Zoley will resume the role of CEO from March 1, 2026, through April 2, 2029, expected to leverage his extensive experience to drive growth in correctional management and community reentry services.
- Business Development Potential: Since founding GEO in 1984, Zoley has been instrumental in developing new business opportunities, particularly in electronic monitoring and rehabilitation services, which are anticipated to expand the company's market share and service offerings.
- Company Scale and Impact: GEO operates 95 facilities with approximately 75,000 beds and a workforce nearing 20,000, and Zoley's return may enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness, especially in key markets like the U.S., Australia, and South Africa.
See More
GEO Group Issues Initial Financial Guidance for 2026
- Earnings Performance: GEO Group reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.23, in line with expectations, while revenue reached $707.7 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-over-year increase and beating market expectations by $40.47 million, indicating robust growth in the company's market position.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: The company anticipates a GAAP net income range of $0.99 to $1.07 per diluted share for 2026, with annual revenues projected between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, slightly below the consensus of $2.97 billion, reflecting a cautious outlook on future revenues.
- Adjusted EBITDA Expectations: GEO Group expects its adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to fall between $490 million and $510 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to manage costs and enhance profitability despite market challenges.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures of $120 million to $155 million for 2026, aimed at supporting future business expansion and operational efficiency improvements, showcasing its commitment to long-term growth.
See More
GEO Group Declines by 9.4%, CoreCivic Decreases by 7.1%
Geographic Group Performance: The geographic group has experienced a decline of 9.4% in performance metrics.
Core Civic Decline: Core Civic has reported a decrease of 7.1% in its performance indicators.
See More
PRISON OPERATORS' STOCKS PLUMMET SIGNIFICANTLY
Prison Operators' Decline: The number of prison operators has sharply decreased, indicating significant changes in the correctional system.
Impact on Incarceration Rates: This decline may affect incarceration rates and the overall management of prison populations.
Policy Implications: The reduction in prison operators raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and practices in the justice system.
Future of Corrections: The trend suggests a potential shift towards alternative forms of rehabilitation and community-based corrections.
See More
