General Motors Optimistic Outlook for 2026 Amid Tariff Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GM?
Source: stocktwits
- Earnings Outlook Upgrade: General Motors anticipates adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $11 and $13, surpassing the analyst estimate of $11.83, indicating enhanced profitability despite tariff pressures and declining EV demand.
- Tariff Cost Management: The company expects gross tariff costs in the range of $3-$4 billion for 2026, slightly higher than 2025, but has successfully offset over 40% of these costs through production adjustments and cost-cutting measures, demonstrating its adaptability to market changes.
- Investment and Capacity Expansion: GM plans to invest $10-$12 billion annually in 2026 and 2027, including approximately $5 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity for high-demand vehicles, further solidifying its market position.
- Share Buyback and Dividend Increase: The board approved a $6 billion share buyback initiative and increased the quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.18 per share, reflecting the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
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Analyst Views on GM
Wall Street analysts forecast GM stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 83.670
Low
57.00
Averages
95.06
High
122.00
Current: 83.670
Low
57.00
Averages
95.06
High
122.00
About GM
General Motors Company designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts and provides software-enabled services and subscriptions worldwide. The Company's segments include GMNA, GMI, Cruise and GM Financial. Its GM North America (GMNA) and GM International (GMI) develop, manufacture and/or markets vehicles under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC brands. The Company provides automotive financing services through its General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial) segment. Its Cruise segment is engaged in the development and commercialization of autonomous vehicle technology. Its software-enabled services and subscriptions, including OnStar, its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), including Super Cruise driver assistance technology, and its end-to-end software platform. The Company is also focused on investing in electric vehicles (EVs) and AVs, software-enabled services and subscriptions and new business opportunities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Continued Investment: GM's total investment in Oshawa has reached C$1.5 billion since 2020, including the recent C$63 million announced for upgrading stamping operations, reinforcing its significance in the full-size truck portfolio.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: This investment will support preparations for the next generation of gas-powered full-size pickups while enhancing capabilities in the service parts business, ensuring Oshawa Assembly meets customer demands in the coming years.
- Unique Production Line: Oshawa Assembly is GM's only North American facility producing both light and heavy-duty full-size pickups on the same line, currently operating on two shifts, highlighting its critical role in the company's overall production strategy.
- Future Outlook: GM plans to share product details and launch timing for the next-generation pickups in the future, indicating the company's long-term commitment to the Oshawa facility and its keen insight into market demands.
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- Significant Sales Growth: In 2025, Ford sold over 228,000 hybrids in the U.S., marking a nearly 22% increase year-over-year, which not only set a quarterly and annual sales record for Ford but also solidified the F-150 hybrid's status as America's best-selling full-size hybrid pickup.
- Decline in EV Market Share: Despite the strong performance of hybrids, Ford's full EV sales fell by 14% in 2025 and plummeted 52% in Q4, primarily due to the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, highlighting challenges in the electric vehicle market.
- Future Strategic Planning: Ford is not abandoning the EV market but plans to introduce a new Universal EV Platform and a midsize electric pickup in 2027, demonstrating the company's long-term commitment to electric vehicles, even as it shifts focus to hybrids for immediate profitability.
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- Record Sales Performance: In 2025, Ford sold over 228,000 hybrids in the U.S., marking a nearly 22% increase year-over-year, setting both fourth-quarter and full-year sales records, while the F-150 hybrid maintained its status as America's best-selling full-size hybrid pickup, reflecting strong market demand.
- EV Market Challenges: Despite the robust hybrid sales, Ford's full EV sales declined by 14% in 2025 and plummeted 52% in Q4, primarily due to the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, highlighting the complexities of the market transition.
- Future EV Strategy: Ford is not abandoning the EV market but plans to launch a new Universal EV Platform and a midsize electric pickup in 2027, demonstrating the company's long-term commitment to electric vehicles, even as hybrids remain the focus for profitability in the short term.
See More
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- Fuel Economy Calculation: The rescinded 'fuel content factor' allowed automakers to calculate fleetwide fuel economy by assigning higher efficiency figures to EVs, thus lowering overall fuel consumption metrics, and its removal will diminish the competitive edge of EVs.
- Court Ruling Basis: The DOE cited a September appeals court decision as the basis for this policy reversal, indicating that the legal environment is increasingly influencing EV policies, which may lead to more adjustments in similar regulations in the future.
- Market Reaction Expectations: With this policy change, major automakers like GM and Ford may need to reassess their EV strategies to navigate the increasingly challenging market environment and policy hurdles.
See More
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- Shareholder Return Comparison: While Ford returns most value to shareholders through dividends, General Motors has initiated a $10 billion stock buyback in 2023, with an additional $6 billion authorized for both 2024 and 2025, reflecting differing capital allocation strategies between the two automakers.
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- Total Investment: This investment, combined with the CAD 280 million investment made in June 2023, brings GM's total investment in its ICE ambitions to CAD 1.5 billion, reflecting a long-term strategic focus on the traditional automotive sector.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: The Oshawa plant currently manufactures Chevy Silverado light- and heavy-duty full-size pickups, and the new investment will further enhance its production capacity to meet the growing market demand for high-performance pickups, thereby boosting the company's competitive edge.
- Market Outlook: Amidst a backdrop of declining electric vehicle demand, GM's investment not only solidifies its position in the traditional gasoline vehicle market but also potentially provides greater flexibility and resilience for the company in navigating future market fluctuations.
See More
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- Continued Investment: GM's total investment in Oshawa has reached C$1.5 billion since 2020, including the recent C$63 million announced for upgrading stamping operations, reinforcing its significance in the full-size truck portfolio.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: This investment will support preparations for the next generation of gas-powered full-size pickups while enhancing capabilities in the service parts business, ensuring Oshawa Assembly meets customer demands in the coming years.
- Unique Production Line: Oshawa Assembly is GM's only North American facility producing both light and heavy-duty full-size pickups on the same line, currently operating on two shifts, highlighting its critical role in the company's overall production strategy.
- Future Outlook: GM plans to share product details and launch timing for the next-generation pickups in the future, indicating the company's long-term commitment to the Oshawa facility and its keen insight into market demands.
See More
Ford Shifts Focus to Hybrid Vehicles Amid EV Challenges
- Hybrid Profitability Surge: Ford CEO Jim Farley highlighted that some of Ford's hybrid models have become profitable, with increasing customer demand indicating a sustainable path for the company amid its electric vehicle transition challenges.
- Significant Sales Growth: In 2025, Ford sold over 228,000 hybrids in the U.S., marking a nearly 22% increase year-over-year, which not only set a quarterly and annual sales record for Ford but also solidified the F-150 hybrid's status as America's best-selling full-size hybrid pickup.
- Decline in EV Market Share: Despite the strong performance of hybrids, Ford's full EV sales fell by 14% in 2025 and plummeted 52% in Q4, primarily due to the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, highlighting challenges in the electric vehicle market.
- Future Strategic Planning: Ford is not abandoning the EV market but plans to introduce a new Universal EV Platform and a midsize electric pickup in 2027, demonstrating the company's long-term commitment to electric vehicles, even as it shifts focus to hybrids for immediate profitability.
See More
Ford's Hybrid Sales Hit Record Highs Amid EV Strategy Shift
- Hybrid Profitability Surge: Ford CEO Jim Farley noted that in 2024, some of Ford's hybrid models became more profitable than their gasoline counterparts, indicating a positive shift in consumer preference towards these transitional solutions, which is expected to enhance the company's financial performance.
- Record Sales Performance: In 2025, Ford sold over 228,000 hybrids in the U.S., marking a nearly 22% increase year-over-year, setting both fourth-quarter and full-year sales records, while the F-150 hybrid maintained its status as America's best-selling full-size hybrid pickup, reflecting strong market demand.
- EV Market Challenges: Despite the robust hybrid sales, Ford's full EV sales declined by 14% in 2025 and plummeted 52% in Q4, primarily due to the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, highlighting the complexities of the market transition.
- Future EV Strategy: Ford is not abandoning the EV market but plans to launch a new Universal EV Platform and a midsize electric pickup in 2027, demonstrating the company's long-term commitment to electric vehicles, even as hybrids remain the focus for profitability in the short term.
See More
Trump Administration Rescinds EV Incentive Rule
- Policy Rescission Impact: The Trump administration's Department of Energy has rescinded a rule that incentivized automakers to produce more EVs, which could further pressure the EV market already affected by the rollback of the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding.
- Fuel Economy Calculation: The rescinded 'fuel content factor' allowed automakers to calculate fleetwide fuel economy by assigning higher efficiency figures to EVs, thus lowering overall fuel consumption metrics, and its removal will diminish the competitive edge of EVs.
- Court Ruling Basis: The DOE cited a September appeals court decision as the basis for this policy reversal, indicating that the legal environment is increasingly influencing EV policies, which may lead to more adjustments in similar regulations in the future.
- Market Reaction Expectations: With this policy change, major automakers like GM and Ford may need to reassess their EV strategies to navigate the increasingly challenging market environment and policy hurdles.
See More
Ford's EV Business Losses Exceed $16 Billion
- EV Business Losses: Ford has incurred over $16 billion in losses on its electric vehicle business since 2022, with a slight improvement to $4.8 billion in Q4 2023, yet it still anticipates losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026, highlighting the high costs of its EV strategy amid an unprepared market.
- Shareholder Return Comparison: While Ford returns most value to shareholders through dividends, General Motors has initiated a $10 billion stock buyback in 2023, with an additional $6 billion authorized for both 2024 and 2025, reflecting differing capital allocation strategies between the two automakers.
- Future Outlook: Ford plans to launch a new midsize electric truck priced around $30,000 by 2027, utilizing its new
See More
General Motors Invests CAD 63M in Oshawa Facility for Next-Gen Pickups
- Investment Expansion: General Motors is investing an additional CAD 63 million (USD 46 million) in its Oshawa assembly facility in Ontario to produce next-generation gas-powered pickups and expand its service parts business, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to the internal combustion engine (ICE) market.
- Total Investment: This investment, combined with the CAD 280 million investment made in June 2023, brings GM's total investment in its ICE ambitions to CAD 1.5 billion, reflecting a long-term strategic focus on the traditional automotive sector.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: The Oshawa plant currently manufactures Chevy Silverado light- and heavy-duty full-size pickups, and the new investment will further enhance its production capacity to meet the growing market demand for high-performance pickups, thereby boosting the company's competitive edge.
- Market Outlook: Amidst a backdrop of declining electric vehicle demand, GM's investment not only solidifies its position in the traditional gasoline vehicle market but also potentially provides greater flexibility and resilience for the company in navigating future market fluctuations.
See More
