G Sachs Maintains Buy Rating on GUMING and MIXUE GROUP; Anticipates Decline in Same-Store Sales Next Year
Expert Meeting on Beverage Market: A recent expert meeting highlighted expectations that subsidies in China's fresh beverage market will phase out over time, with niche brands potentially achieving profitability within 6-8 months.
Food Delivery Losses Forecast: Goldman Sachs predicts that losses for food delivery companies like Alibaba and Meituan will decrease by the end of December 2026, despite a reduction in subsidies impacting same-store sales.
Sales Projections for GUMING and MIXUE: The report forecasts a decline in same-store sales for GUMING and MIXUE Group by 6% and 4% respectively in 2026, while both companies are expected to open thousands of new stores in untapped markets.
Investment Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating for both GUMING and MIXUE Group, setting target prices of HKD32 and HKD579 respectively for the next 12 months.
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HSI Rises Over 600 Points; Tea Beverage Stocks Remain Weak; MIXUE Declines by 10%
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse experienced a rally on the 28th, with the HSI reaching a 4.5-year high of 27,757, up 630 points or 2.3%, and a turnover of HK$176.495 million.
MIXUE GROUP Stock Decline: MIXUE GROUP's stock opened 2.5% lower and fell to HK$396, down 10.6%, following a downgrade by UBS, which cited potential short-term pressures and reduced profit forecasts.
Pressure on Tea Beverage Stocks: Several tea beverage stocks, including CHABAIDAO and GUMING, faced declines of 2-3%, diverging from the overall market trend.
Short Selling Activity: The short selling ratios for various stocks, including MIXUE GROUP and others in the tea beverage sector, indicate increased market skepticism, with significant short selling reported.
<Research>SPDBI Identifies Certain H Shares with Increased Market Capitalization at Lock-up Period's Conclusion in the Coming Year (Table)
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with ZIJIN GOLD INTL and MINIMAX-WP experiencing significant gains, while others like GUMING and CHERY AUTO faced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with FWD showing a high short selling ratio of 16.999%, while NANSHAN AL INTL had a notably low ratio of 0.135%.
Market Capitalization Insights: The market capitalization at the end of the lock-up periods for these stocks ranges from 21.4 billion to 406.6 billion, indicating varying levels of investor interest and company valuations.
Future Lock-up Dates: Key lock-up expiration dates for these stocks are set between early 2026 and late 2026, which may impact trading strategies and stock performance as these dates approach.
