Ford and Geely in Talks for Partnership
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 04 2026
0mins
Should l Buy F?
Source: seekingalpha
- Partnership Potential: Ford and Geely are in discussions for a potential partnership, focusing on Geely possibly using Ford's European factory space, particularly in Valencia, Spain, which would aid Geely's expansion in the European market.
- Technology Sharing Framework: The talks also include a framework for shared vehicle technologies, such as automated driving, which could enhance both companies' technological capabilities and accelerate the development and launch of new models.
- Significant Negotiation Progress: After months of discussions, the negotiations centered on European manufacturing have advanced, with Ford recently sending a delegation to China to expedite talks with Geely, indicating a sense of urgency in their collaboration.
- Tariff Avoidance Advantage: Utilizing Ford's factory space would help Geely avoid EU tariffs on electric vehicles made in China, significantly reducing Geely's operational costs in the European market and enhancing its competitiveness.
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Analyst Views on F
Wall Street analysts forecast F stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 11.680
Low
11.00
Averages
13.65
High
16.00
Current: 11.680
Low
11.00
Averages
13.65
High
16.00
About F
Ford Motor Company is an automobile company. The Company develops and delivers Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles, along with connected services. The Company’s segments include Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit. The Ford Blue segment primarily includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers. The Ford Model e segment primarily includes the sale of its electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers. The Ford Pro segment primarily includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, accessories, and services for commercial, government, and rental customers. The Ford Credit segment consists of the Ford Credit business on a consolidated basis, which is primarily vehicle-related financing and leasing activities. Its vehicle brands are Ford and Lincoln.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Demand: Despite the overall sales decline, demand for F-Series trucks and large SUVs like the Bronco, Explorer, and Expedition has continued to grow, suggesting a strong consumer preference for these models.
- Strategic Focus: Ford President Andrew Frick stated that the company is focusing on its strengths in high-demand segments while continuing to meet customer needs for both affordable and premium vehicle options, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Currently trading at $11.48, Ford's stock has decreased by 1.67% from the previous trading day, reflecting market concerns over the company's sales performance, which may impact investor confidence.
See More
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- Leasing Market Risks: Tesla is expected to see a wave of off-lease EVs flooding the market in the coming years, with industry experts projecting these vehicles to return at values approximately $10,000 lower than anticipated, potentially costing the industry about $8 billion.
- Depreciation Trends: According to Cox Automotive, by 2025, a three-year-old EV will maintain only about 40% of its original value at auction, a significant drop from 90% in early 2022, indicating pressure on the used EV market.
- Tesla's Market Dominance: Tesla dominates the EV leasing market, having leased nearly 229,000 vehicles last year, which is significantly more than the combined total of General Motors and Ford, highlighting its strong industry influence.
- Investor Confidence Reminder: Despite the challenges posed by off-lease EV depreciation, Tesla's finance arm collaborates with third-party lenders, allowing it to mitigate most of the leasing losses, suggesting that investors need not panic just yet.
See More
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- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
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- Leasing Risks: Ford Credit finances customer sales and leases, and is projected to face significant risks from off-lease EVs with residual values lower than expected, potentially crippling profitability, especially with nearly 800,000 EVs expected to come off lease by 2028.
- Market Dynamics: By the end of 2026, EVs are expected to make up 15% of off-lease used vehicles, up from just 7.7% in Q1 2023, indicating rapid changes in the EV market and its potential impact on Ford Credit.
- Industry Loss Estimates: Experts predict that the resale value of off-lease EVs will be around $10,000 less than projected, leading to an estimated industry-wide loss of about $8 billion in 2028, posing challenges for Ford and its competitors Tesla and General Motors.
See More
Ford Credit Faces EV Residual Value Crisis
- Profitability Overview: Ford Credit has recorded only one annual loss in the past two decades, in 2008, and while it typically generates about 5% of the company's revenue, it contributes 15% to 20% of profits, highlighting its significance as a profit engine.
- EV Residual Value Risk: With nearly 800,000 EVs expected to flood the market by 2028, industry experts predict these vehicles will resell for about $10,000 less than projected, potentially leading to an industry-wide loss of approximately $8 billion, posing significant financial pressure on Ford Credit.
- Leasing Market Dynamics: Ford's performance in the EV leasing market is relatively weak, with only 52,000 EV leases last year compared to 228,000 for Tesla and 102,000 for General Motors, which may impact Ford's future profitability due to market share disparities.
- Investor Watchpoint: Although the current situation is less severe than the 2008 crisis, the residual value issues of EVs warrant close attention from investors, as they could unexpectedly affect Ford's financial health in the coming years.
See More
Ford Reports Nearly 9% Decline in Q1 U.S. Sales Amid Economic Uncertainty
- Sales Decline Reasons: Ford's U.S. sales fell nearly 9% in Q1, totaling 457,315 vehicles, primarily due to a shift towards larger SUVs and tough year-over-year comparisons, indicating weakened market demand.
- Electric Vehicle Sales Drop: Sales of Ford's electrified vehicles plummeted 34.8% to 48,019 units, reflecting reduced consumer purchasing willingness amid high gas prices and economic uncertainty, which could impact future market share.
- Luxury Brand Performance: Lincoln's Q1 sales dipped 0.5% to 23,610 vehicles, demonstrating brand stability and consumer loyalty despite the challenging overall market environment.
- Retail Market Share Growth: Despite the overall sales decline, Ford estimates its retail market share grew by 0.2 percentage points to 11.6%, indicating the company's ability to maintain a certain market position in a competitive landscape.
See More
