Eli Lilly's Medicare Rollout Set for July 1, Boosting Access to Obesity Treatments
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
Source: stocktwits
- Medicare Rollout: Eli Lilly anticipates the Medicare program will launch on July 1, with 10%-20% of direct-to-patient users expected to transition early, significantly enhancing the company's market coverage and sales potential in obesity medications.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: The company projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $77.56 billion, with expected earnings per share of $33.5 to $35, indicating strong growth prospects and market confidence.
- Zepbound Market Performance: Zepbound vials account for about one-third of new patient starts and nearly 50% of total prescriptions in Q4, underscoring its leadership position and sustained demand growth in the obesity medication market.
- Positive Stock Market Reaction: Eli Lilly's stock surged to $1,107.12 following the release of better-than-expected Q4 earnings, although it slipped 0.5% in after-hours trading, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's future growth.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LLY is 1192 USD with a low forecast of 950.00 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1003.460
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1003.460
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q4 Results, Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue reached $19.3 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $17.86 billion, indicating sustained momentum in its obesity and diabetes product portfolio.
- Earnings Per Share Increase: Q4 earnings rose by 51% to $7.39 per share, exceeding market expectations of $7.22, reflecting a notable improvement in the company's profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Eli Lilly expects revenue for fiscal 2026 to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, significantly higher than fiscal 2025, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth.
- Annual Performance Review: For the full year, Eli Lilly's total revenue grew by 45% to $65.18 billion, showcasing its strong performance and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: In Q4 2025, Eli Lilly achieved global revenue of $19.29 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by a 46% rise in volume, indicating strong market performance and sustained product demand.
- Substantial Net Income Increase: The net income for Q4 reached $6.64 billion, up 50% from $4.41 billion in Q4 2024, demonstrating the company's effective cost control and market expansion, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Increased R&D Investment: R&D expenses rose 26% to $3.8 billion in Q4 2025, representing 20% of revenue, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to drug development aimed at enhancing future product innovation and market competitiveness.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: Eli Lilly projects revenue for 2026 to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, showcasing confidence in future growth while planning to maintain a tax rate between 18% and 19%, indicating a robust financial management strategy.
See More
Eli Lilly Valuation Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Stock Performance: Eli Lilly's stock closed at $1,107.12, with a 7-day return of 8.1%, indicating strong short-term performance, although the year-to-date increase of only 2.5% suggests uncertainty in market expectations for future growth.
- Cash Flow Analysis: The latest twelve-month free cash flow for Eli Lilly is approximately $6.97 billion, with projections estimating it could reach $61.91 billion by 2035, indicating significant cash flow potential over the next decade, while the current stock price reflects a 15.2% discount to its intrinsic value, suggesting it may be undervalued.
- P/E Ratio Assessment: Eli Lilly's current P/E ratio stands at 48.03x, significantly above the pharmaceutical industry average of 21.06x, indicating high market expectations for its profitability, yet it appears overvalued compared to its fair ratio of 43.04x, warranting caution from investors.
- Investor Focus: As Eli Lilly progresses in its obesity and diabetes drug portfolio, investors are closely monitoring regulatory updates and clinical data, which could impact the company's future stock performance and market confidence, reflecting competitive pressures and opportunities within the industry.
See More
Eli Lilly's Medicare Rollout Set for July 1, Boosting Access to Obesity Treatments
- Medicare Rollout: Eli Lilly anticipates the Medicare program will launch on July 1, with 10%-20% of direct-to-patient users expected to transition early, significantly enhancing the company's market coverage and sales potential in obesity medications.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: The company projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $77.56 billion, with expected earnings per share of $33.5 to $35, indicating strong growth prospects and market confidence.
- Zepbound Market Performance: Zepbound vials account for about one-third of new patient starts and nearly 50% of total prescriptions in Q4, underscoring its leadership position and sustained demand growth in the obesity medication market.
- Positive Stock Market Reaction: Eli Lilly's stock surged to $1,107.12 following the release of better-than-expected Q4 earnings, although it slipped 0.5% in after-hours trading, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's future growth.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Blockbuster Q4 Earnings with 43% Revenue Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, primarily driven by robust sales of diabetes and obesity treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound, which saw increases of 110% and 123%, respectively, reaching $7.4 billion and $4.3 billion, showcasing the company's strong market performance.
- Capacity Expansion: To meet the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, Eli Lilly is rapidly expanding its manufacturing network, particularly following a deal with the U.S. government that is expected to further boost demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, ensuring the company can respond promptly to market changes.
- Market Share Increase: Zepbound commands nearly 70% of new prescriptions in the branded obesity drug market, surpassing competitor Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, indicating Eli Lilly's competitive advantage in the rapidly growing obesity drug sector and further solidifying its market leadership.
- Future Growth Outlook: Eli Lilly anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 25% by 2026, projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to rise by about 40% to between $33.50 and $35.00, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to ongoing innovation.
See More
Eli Lilly Surges Amid Tech Rotation
- Market Divergence: The ongoing rotation out of tech stocks has led to a divided stock market, indicating selective preferences among investors that could influence future capital flows.
- Eli Lilly's Strong Performance: Eli Lilly's stock surged amidst market volatility, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential, which may attract more capital into the company.
- Google's Positive Earnings: Following its earnings report, Google's stock rose, showcasing its strong financial performance and future capital spending plans, which could bolster market confidence in tech stocks.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Google's announcement of substantial capital expenditure plans is expected to drive long-term growth and potentially enhance its market share and competitiveness in the tech sector.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q4 Results, Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue reached $19.3 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $17.86 billion, indicating sustained momentum in its obesity and diabetes product portfolio.
- Earnings Per Share Increase: Q4 earnings rose by 51% to $7.39 per share, exceeding market expectations of $7.22, reflecting a notable improvement in the company's profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Eli Lilly expects revenue for fiscal 2026 to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, significantly higher than fiscal 2025, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth.
- Annual Performance Review: For the full year, Eli Lilly's total revenue grew by 45% to $65.18 billion, showcasing its strong performance and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: In Q4 2025, Eli Lilly achieved global revenue of $19.29 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by a 46% rise in volume, indicating strong market performance and sustained product demand.
- Substantial Net Income Increase: The net income for Q4 reached $6.64 billion, up 50% from $4.41 billion in Q4 2024, demonstrating the company's effective cost control and market expansion, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Increased R&D Investment: R&D expenses rose 26% to $3.8 billion in Q4 2025, representing 20% of revenue, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to drug development aimed at enhancing future product innovation and market competitiveness.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: Eli Lilly projects revenue for 2026 to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, showcasing confidence in future growth while planning to maintain a tax rate between 18% and 19%, indicating a robust financial management strategy.
See More
Eli Lilly Valuation Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Stock Performance: Eli Lilly's stock closed at $1,107.12, with a 7-day return of 8.1%, indicating strong short-term performance, although the year-to-date increase of only 2.5% suggests uncertainty in market expectations for future growth.
- Cash Flow Analysis: The latest twelve-month free cash flow for Eli Lilly is approximately $6.97 billion, with projections estimating it could reach $61.91 billion by 2035, indicating significant cash flow potential over the next decade, while the current stock price reflects a 15.2% discount to its intrinsic value, suggesting it may be undervalued.
- P/E Ratio Assessment: Eli Lilly's current P/E ratio stands at 48.03x, significantly above the pharmaceutical industry average of 21.06x, indicating high market expectations for its profitability, yet it appears overvalued compared to its fair ratio of 43.04x, warranting caution from investors.
- Investor Focus: As Eli Lilly progresses in its obesity and diabetes drug portfolio, investors are closely monitoring regulatory updates and clinical data, which could impact the company's future stock performance and market confidence, reflecting competitive pressures and opportunities within the industry.
See More
Eli Lilly's Medicare Rollout Set for July 1, Boosting Access to Obesity Treatments
- Medicare Rollout: Eli Lilly anticipates the Medicare program will launch on July 1, with 10%-20% of direct-to-patient users expected to transition early, significantly enhancing the company's market coverage and sales potential in obesity medications.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: The company projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $77.56 billion, with expected earnings per share of $33.5 to $35, indicating strong growth prospects and market confidence.
- Zepbound Market Performance: Zepbound vials account for about one-third of new patient starts and nearly 50% of total prescriptions in Q4, underscoring its leadership position and sustained demand growth in the obesity medication market.
- Positive Stock Market Reaction: Eli Lilly's stock surged to $1,107.12 following the release of better-than-expected Q4 earnings, although it slipped 0.5% in after-hours trading, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's future growth.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports Blockbuster Q4 Earnings with 43% Revenue Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, primarily driven by robust sales of diabetes and obesity treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound, which saw increases of 110% and 123%, respectively, reaching $7.4 billion and $4.3 billion, showcasing the company's strong market performance.
- Capacity Expansion: To meet the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, Eli Lilly is rapidly expanding its manufacturing network, particularly following a deal with the U.S. government that is expected to further boost demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, ensuring the company can respond promptly to market changes.
- Market Share Increase: Zepbound commands nearly 70% of new prescriptions in the branded obesity drug market, surpassing competitor Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, indicating Eli Lilly's competitive advantage in the rapidly growing obesity drug sector and further solidifying its market leadership.
- Future Growth Outlook: Eli Lilly anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 25% by 2026, projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to rise by about 40% to between $33.50 and $35.00, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to ongoing innovation.
See More
Eli Lilly Surges Amid Tech Rotation
- Market Divergence: The ongoing rotation out of tech stocks has led to a divided stock market, indicating selective preferences among investors that could influence future capital flows.
- Eli Lilly's Strong Performance: Eli Lilly's stock surged amidst market volatility, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential, which may attract more capital into the company.
- Google's Positive Earnings: Following its earnings report, Google's stock rose, showcasing its strong financial performance and future capital spending plans, which could bolster market confidence in tech stocks.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Google's announcement of substantial capital expenditure plans is expected to drive long-term growth and potentially enhance its market share and competitiveness in the tech sector.
See More
