Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Compete in Weight Loss Drug Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2h ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Market Share Shift: Eli Lilly began surpassing Novo Nordisk in the U.S. market in June 2024, currently holding a 60% market share while Novo's prescriptions have declined, indicating Eli's strong growth momentum in the weight loss drug sector.
- Product Efficacy Comparison: Eli's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 50 pounds over 72 weeks, significantly outperforming Novo's Wegovy, which resulted in a 33-pound loss, providing robust support for Eli's market leadership.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli has committed over $50 billion to new and expanded manufacturing facilities, announcing 10 new sites in the U.S. to meet the surging demand for weight loss drugs, further solidifying its market position.
- New Product Approval: Novo's oral Wegovy received FDA approval, and while Eli's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron is also under review, its potential approval could provide Eli with a significant competitive edge, potentially reshaping the market landscape.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LLY is 1192 USD with a low forecast of 950.00 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1025.000
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1025.000
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Reports 43% Revenue Growth in Q4 Driven by GLP-1 Products
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
McDonald's CEO Faces Challenge from GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs
- Market Adaptation: McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski noted that while the adoption of GLP-1 drugs is increasing, it has not yet materially impacted the company's business, demonstrating resilience in the face of new competition.
- Product Strategy Adjustment: The company is testing new offerings like chicken sandwiches and tenders to adapt to changing consumer eating habits, particularly under the low-calorie diet trend, ensuring its protein products remain appealing.
- Strong Sales Performance: In its fourth-quarter report, McDonald's revealed a same-store sales increase of 5.7%, surpassing analysts' expectations of 3.9%, indicating the company's ability to maintain attractiveness in a competitive market.
- Future Monitoring: The company is closely monitoring changes in consumer snacking habits and preferences for lower-sugar beverages to timely adjust its product mix, ensuring competitiveness in the market influenced by GLP-1 drugs.
See More
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Competition
- Market Share Shift: Since June 2024, prescriptions for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs have declined in the U.S., while Eli Lilly's market share has risen to 60%, demonstrating its strong competitive position in the weight loss drug market.
- Clinical Trial Results: Eli Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trials, with participants losing an average of 50 pounds over 72 weeks compared to Wegovy's 33 pounds, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in the weight loss drug sector.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli Lilly has committed over $50 billion to new manufacturing sites and expansions, announcing 10 U.S. facilities to meet growing market demand and ensure future supply capabilities.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron is awaiting regulatory approval, with a decision expected by April 10, which, if approved, could provide a significant competitive advantage and further reinforce Lilly's market leadership.
See More
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Compete in Weight Loss Drug Market
- Market Share Shift: Eli Lilly began surpassing Novo Nordisk in the U.S. market in June 2024, currently holding a 60% market share while Novo's prescriptions have declined, indicating Eli's strong growth momentum in the weight loss drug sector.
- Product Efficacy Comparison: Eli's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 50 pounds over 72 weeks, significantly outperforming Novo's Wegovy, which resulted in a 33-pound loss, providing robust support for Eli's market leadership.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli has committed over $50 billion to new and expanded manufacturing facilities, announcing 10 new sites in the U.S. to meet the surging demand for weight loss drugs, further solidifying its market position.
- New Product Approval: Novo's oral Wegovy received FDA approval, and while Eli's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron is also under review, its potential approval could provide Eli with a significant competitive edge, potentially reshaping the market landscape.
See More
Novo Nordisk Aims for 15 Million New Patients with Medicare Coverage
- Medicare Coverage Goal: CEO Mike Doustdar of Novo Nordisk stated that the company aims to reach about 15 million new patients once Medicare begins covering obesity treatments, although he cautioned that the expansion of coverage is unlikely to happen quickly, indicating challenges in market adoption.
- Significant Price Reductions: Wegovy pills are listed at $149 on the newly launched TrumpRx website, representing an approximately 89% discount from prevailing market prices, while Wegovy and Ozempic pens start at $199, showcasing Novo Nordisk's strategic pricing adjustments in a competitive landscape.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: In contrast, Eli Lilly expects revenues of $80–$83 billion, exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $77.62 billion, indicating strong market performance, which puts pressure on Novo Nordisk to implement strategies to close the gap.
- Stock Price Volatility: Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock has declined by 40.41%, closing at $48.74, reflecting market concerns regarding its future growth prospects, particularly amid intensifying competition.
See More
Novo Nordisk to Launch Wegovy in Vials to Compete with Eli Lilly
- Increased Market Competition: Novo Nordisk plans to launch Wegovy in vials to counter competition from Eli Lilly in the weight-loss drug market, which introduced vials nearly two years ago to offer a lower-priced option and alleviate shortages.
- Pricing Strategy Adjustment: While Novo has not disclosed the specific pricing for vial versions of Wegovy, the company has already begun aggressively discounting its obesity drugs to enhance market competitiveness, indicating a strong focus on market share.
- Eli Lilly's Market Strategy: Last year, Eli Lilly cut the price of Zepbound vials by over $50 and expanded the range of doses available online, a strategy that could pressure Novo Nordisk's sales.
- Industry Dynamics Impact: This new initiative by Novo Nordisk is not only a direct response to competitors but may also influence pricing and supply chain dynamics across the obesity drug market, further intensifying the price war within the industry.
See More
Eli Lilly Reports 43% Revenue Growth in Q4 Driven by GLP-1 Products
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
McDonald's CEO Faces Challenge from GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs
- Market Adaptation: McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski noted that while the adoption of GLP-1 drugs is increasing, it has not yet materially impacted the company's business, demonstrating resilience in the face of new competition.
- Product Strategy Adjustment: The company is testing new offerings like chicken sandwiches and tenders to adapt to changing consumer eating habits, particularly under the low-calorie diet trend, ensuring its protein products remain appealing.
- Strong Sales Performance: In its fourth-quarter report, McDonald's revealed a same-store sales increase of 5.7%, surpassing analysts' expectations of 3.9%, indicating the company's ability to maintain attractiveness in a competitive market.
- Future Monitoring: The company is closely monitoring changes in consumer snacking habits and preferences for lower-sugar beverages to timely adjust its product mix, ensuring competitiveness in the market influenced by GLP-1 drugs.
See More
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Competition
- Market Share Shift: Since June 2024, prescriptions for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs have declined in the U.S., while Eli Lilly's market share has risen to 60%, demonstrating its strong competitive position in the weight loss drug market.
- Clinical Trial Results: Eli Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trials, with participants losing an average of 50 pounds over 72 weeks compared to Wegovy's 33 pounds, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in the weight loss drug sector.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli Lilly has committed over $50 billion to new manufacturing sites and expansions, announcing 10 U.S. facilities to meet growing market demand and ensure future supply capabilities.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron is awaiting regulatory approval, with a decision expected by April 10, which, if approved, could provide a significant competitive advantage and further reinforce Lilly's market leadership.
See More
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Compete in Weight Loss Drug Market
- Market Share Shift: Eli Lilly began surpassing Novo Nordisk in the U.S. market in June 2024, currently holding a 60% market share while Novo's prescriptions have declined, indicating Eli's strong growth momentum in the weight loss drug sector.
- Product Efficacy Comparison: Eli's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 50 pounds over 72 weeks, significantly outperforming Novo's Wegovy, which resulted in a 33-pound loss, providing robust support for Eli's market leadership.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli has committed over $50 billion to new and expanded manufacturing facilities, announcing 10 new sites in the U.S. to meet the surging demand for weight loss drugs, further solidifying its market position.
- New Product Approval: Novo's oral Wegovy received FDA approval, and while Eli's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron is also under review, its potential approval could provide Eli with a significant competitive edge, potentially reshaping the market landscape.
See More
Novo Nordisk Aims for 15 Million New Patients with Medicare Coverage
- Medicare Coverage Goal: CEO Mike Doustdar of Novo Nordisk stated that the company aims to reach about 15 million new patients once Medicare begins covering obesity treatments, although he cautioned that the expansion of coverage is unlikely to happen quickly, indicating challenges in market adoption.
- Significant Price Reductions: Wegovy pills are listed at $149 on the newly launched TrumpRx website, representing an approximately 89% discount from prevailing market prices, while Wegovy and Ozempic pens start at $199, showcasing Novo Nordisk's strategic pricing adjustments in a competitive landscape.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: In contrast, Eli Lilly expects revenues of $80–$83 billion, exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $77.62 billion, indicating strong market performance, which puts pressure on Novo Nordisk to implement strategies to close the gap.
- Stock Price Volatility: Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock has declined by 40.41%, closing at $48.74, reflecting market concerns regarding its future growth prospects, particularly amid intensifying competition.
See More
Novo Nordisk to Launch Wegovy in Vials to Compete with Eli Lilly
- Increased Market Competition: Novo Nordisk plans to launch Wegovy in vials to counter competition from Eli Lilly in the weight-loss drug market, which introduced vials nearly two years ago to offer a lower-priced option and alleviate shortages.
- Pricing Strategy Adjustment: While Novo has not disclosed the specific pricing for vial versions of Wegovy, the company has already begun aggressively discounting its obesity drugs to enhance market competitiveness, indicating a strong focus on market share.
- Eli Lilly's Market Strategy: Last year, Eli Lilly cut the price of Zepbound vials by over $50 and expanded the range of doses available online, a strategy that could pressure Novo Nordisk's sales.
- Industry Dynamics Impact: This new initiative by Novo Nordisk is not only a direct response to competitors but may also influence pricing and supply chain dynamics across the obesity drug market, further intensifying the price war within the industry.
See More
