Deutsche Bank Upgrades Merck to Buy with $150 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin upgraded Merck from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from $115 to $150, indicating a potential 26% upside from Thursday's closing price of $119.24, reflecting the market's undervaluation of the company.
- Patent Cliff Concerns: The analyst noted that market fears regarding Keytruda's impending patent expiration have led to Merck's undervaluation, but he believes the company has a clear path to navigate this transition effectively, similar to AbbVie's successful management of Humira's patent cliff.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Shin projects Merck's trough earnings at approximately $11 per share, exceeding the Street's consensus of around $10, with historical data showing that investing at points of trough clarity often presents significant opportunities, as evidenced by AbbVie's valuation multiple expansion from 11x to 15x.
- Pipeline Potential: Deutsche Bank's assessment suggests that Merck may already have visibility to low-single-digit terminal revenue growth excluding Keytruda, with its pipeline strengthened by acquisitions like Winrevair, Ohtuvayre, and CDTX, potentially providing over $35 billion in risk-adjusted revenue by 2035, easing the transition beyond Keytruda.
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Health Canada Approval: Health Canada has approved Keytruda (pembrolizumab) as a subcutaneous formulation for multiple cancer indications.
Treatment Options: This approval expands treatment options for patients with various types of cancer, enhancing accessibility and convenience in administration.

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