Current Market Position: As of August 26, 2025, Costco's market cap is approximately $425 billion, indicating it would need to grow by about 235% to reach the $1 trillion mark.
Growth Potential: Costco's stock has shown a significant return over the past seven years, particularly in the last five, with a share price increase of over 170%. The company reported a 13.2% year-over-year increase in earnings per share in Q3 of fiscal 2025, suggesting that if this growth continues, Costco could join the trillion-dollar club within the next seven years.
Strategies for Growth
Membership Fee Increases: One potential strategy for Costco to boost revenue is to raise membership fees, which were last increased in September 2024. However, this could risk lower renewal rates among members.
International Expansion: Costco plans to have 285 stores outside the U.S. by the end of fiscal 2025, although this will still represent less than one-third of its total stores.
E-commerce Development: Enhancing its e-commerce capabilities is crucial, as Costco's online sales are growing faster than in-store sales, yet it still trails behind Walmart in online service.
Operational Efficiency: Increasing operational efficiency through technology could further enhance Costco's profitability, although the company has room for improvement in this area compared to competitors.
Challenges Ahead
Competitive Landscape: Costco faces significant competition from rivals like Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale Club, although it is currently outpacing them in sales growth.
Valuation Concerns: The stock trades at a high forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46.5, which could pose challenges. However, historical performance suggests that high valuations have not hindered Costco's stock price growth in the past.
Investment Considerations
Future Outlook: Analysts predict that Costco could reach a $1 trillion market cap by the early 2030s, if not sooner. However, other companies in the trillion-dollar club may present better long-term investment opportunities.
Stock Advisor Recommendations: The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor has identified ten stocks that are currently recommended for investment, excluding Costco, which could yield substantial returns based on historical performance metrics.
COST
$860.39+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COST is 1092 USD with a low forecast of 907.00 USD and a high forecast of 1218 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COST is 1092 USD with a low forecast of 907.00 USD and a high forecast of 1218 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 860.560
Low
907.00
Averages
1092
High
1218
Current: 860.560
Low
907.00
Averages
1092
High
1218
Goldman Sachs
Buy
downgrade
2025-12-12
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
2025-12-12
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Costco to $1,171 from $1,218 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following the Q1 earnings report, Goldman Sachs continues to have confidence in Costco's value proposition resonating with consumers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BMO Capital
Outperform
maintain
$1,175
2025-12-12
New
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$1,175
2025-12-12
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital keeps an Outperform rating and $1,175 price target after its Q1 results. The company's earnings remained strong and consistent, supported by a continuation of balanced traffic and ticket, gross margin expansion, 20% e-commerce growth and a moderation of sequential renewal rate declines, the analyst tells investors in a research note. This key renewal rate metric may have weighed on Costco's premium valuation in 2025, this quarter gives the firm the confidence that rates should stabilize and improve, the firm added.
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
2025-12-12
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-12
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Costco to $1,027 from $1,025 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The expects the company to post "strong" December comps. The "setup bodes well for COST to reverse the burden of proof on its stock and chart death," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Baird
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
2025-12-12
New
Reason
Baird
Price Target
2025-12-12
New
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Baird lowered the firm's price target on Costco to $1,000 from $1,125 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following strong Q1 results.
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
