Company Reaffirms 2025 Guidance, Expects 10% AFFO Per Share Growth in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy MRP?
The Company is reaffirming its previously issued guidance from its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. First quarter results and pipeline activity remain consistent with these expectations. The Company expects to deploy approximately $1 billion of additional invested capital by mid-2026 using existing debt capacity, targeting a second quarter exit quarterly AFFO run rate of $0.78-$0.80 per share Based on current pipeline depth, total net new capital deployment of up to $2 billion is expected for full year 2026 - implying approximately 10% year-over-year AFFO per share growth.
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Analyst Views on MRP
Wall Street analysts forecast MRP stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 26.900
Low
35.00
Averages
36.50
High
38.00
Current: 26.900
Low
35.00
Averages
36.50
High
38.00
About MRP
Millrose Properties, Inc., through certain subsidiaries, operates as an operational and capital solution for home builders and land development companies to finance the acquisition and development of land assets through its Homesite Option Purchase Platform (known as the HOPP’R). The HOPP’R is a comprehensive suite of systems and procedures that has been developed to operate and manage the acquisition, financing and development of land assets on a large scale. The land development activities include the installation of all necessary infrastructure required to build homes, including drainage, sewage, water lines, roads, sidewalks, utility lines, grading, landscaping and, in certain cases, the construction of recreational facilities, common area elements and other amenities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Waterfall Asset Management Increases Stake in Millrose Properties
- Stake Increase: Waterfall Asset Management acquired an additional 219,984 shares of Millrose Properties in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $6.62 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future.
- Market Value Growth: This purchase raised Waterfall's stake in Millrose to 5.09%, with a quarter-end value increase of $5.96 million, reflecting the dual impact of stock price appreciation and the new share acquisition.
- Financial Performance: Millrose's latest quarter saw revenue more than double year-over-year to $194.9 million, with net income reaching $122.9 million or $0.74 per share, showcasing robust growth potential in the residential land banking sector.
- Market Outlook: With Millrose expanding its builder network to 17 counterparties and redeploying nearly $989 million into land acquisitions and development, Waterfall's stake increase suggests a bullish outlook on the residential market, particularly as builders continue to outsource land risk.
See More
Waterfall Asset Management Increases Stake in MRP
- Share Acquisition: Waterfall Asset Management increased its stake in Millrose Properties (NYSE:MRP) by acquiring 219,984 shares in Q1, with an estimated transaction value of $6.62 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Quarter-End Value Increase: The position's quarter-end value rose by $5.96 million due to both share additions and price movements, reflecting the company's solid performance in the market and positive investor sentiment.
- Rapid Revenue Growth: Millrose Properties reported over 100% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, reaching $194.9 million, with net income of $122.9 million and earnings per share of $0.74, demonstrating strong demand and profitability in the residential real estate sector.
- Strategic Partnership Expansion: Millrose expanded its builder network to 17 counterparties, including a new top-10 national homebuilder, showcasing its increasing influence and market penetration within the industry.
See More
Millrose Properties Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Stable Financial Performance: Millrose Properties reported a net income of $122.9 million for Q1 2026, translating to $0.74 per share, driven primarily by $185 million in option fees and approximately $10 million in development loan income, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations.
- Investment Capital Growth: The company increased its invested capital to approximately $8.7 billion, with 95% pooled, and among 17 counterparties, about 31% of the portfolio is deployed outside the Lennar master program, indicating a proactive approach to portfolio diversification.
- Sustained Dividend Policy: Millrose declared a quarterly dividend of $0.76 per share, fully covered by an AFFO of $0.76 per share, reflecting the stability of the company's cash flow and commitment to shareholders, thereby enhancing market confidence.
- Robust Market Demand: Despite facing margin compression and market uncertainties among builders, CEO Richman noted that demand for land acquisition and development funding remains strong, with no changes in relationships with existing counterparties, showcasing the company's competitive position in the industry.
See More
Millrose Properties Q1 Earnings Report Analysis
- Financial Performance Overview: Millrose Properties reported Q1 FFO of $0.76, missing expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $194.9 million, up 135.7% year-over-year, indicating short-term financial volatility despite strong growth.
- Net Income Situation: Net income attributable to common shareholders was $122.9 million, or $0.74 per share, which, although solid, fell short of market expectations, potentially impacting stock price negatively.
- Future Investment Plans: The company reaffirmed its previous guidance, expecting to deploy approximately $1 billion of additional invested capital by mid-2026, targeting a quarterly AFFO run rate of $0.78 to $0.80 per share, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Long-Term Growth Expectations: Based on the current pipeline, total net new capital deployment of up to $2 billion is expected for full year 2026, implying approximately 10% year-over-year AFFO per share growth, providing long-term appeal for investors.
See More
Millrose Properties to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 6
- Earnings Announcement Date: Millrose Properties (MRP) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 6 before market open, with a consensus FFO estimate of $0.77, reflecting a robust year-over-year growth of 97.4%, indicating strong earnings potential.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $200.9 million, which has seen four upward revisions in the last three months, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's growth prospects, despite one downward revision.
- Earnings Estimate Volatility: Over the past three months, EPS estimates have experienced no upward revisions and one downward revision, indicating some uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's profitability, which could influence investor decisions.
- Long-Term Appeal: Despite near-term volatility, Millrose Properties offers an attractive yield exceeding 10% and strong growth expectations, showcasing its long-term investment appeal that may attract income-seeking investors.
See More
Millrose Properties to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Millrose Properties will announce its financial results for Q1 2026 on May 6, 2026, before market open, reflecting the company's ongoing growth in the residential construction sector.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 10:00 AM ET on the same day to provide a detailed interpretation of the financial results, enhancing investor understanding of operational performance.
- Investor Relations Information: Earnings reports and related materials will be available through the investor relations section of the company’s website, ensuring timely access to the latest information and improving transparency.
- Company Background: Millrose is the premier Homesite Option Purchase Platform for residential builders, focusing on land acquisition and horizontal development to provide a predictable supply of finished homesites, meeting market demand.
See More
Waterfall Asset Management Increases Stake in Millrose Properties
- Stake Increase: Waterfall Asset Management acquired an additional 219,984 shares of Millrose Properties in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $6.62 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future.
- Market Value Growth: This purchase raised Waterfall's stake in Millrose to 5.09%, with a quarter-end value increase of $5.96 million, reflecting the dual impact of stock price appreciation and the new share acquisition.
- Financial Performance: Millrose's latest quarter saw revenue more than double year-over-year to $194.9 million, with net income reaching $122.9 million or $0.74 per share, showcasing robust growth potential in the residential land banking sector.
- Market Outlook: With Millrose expanding its builder network to 17 counterparties and redeploying nearly $989 million into land acquisitions and development, Waterfall's stake increase suggests a bullish outlook on the residential market, particularly as builders continue to outsource land risk.
See More
Waterfall Asset Management Increases Stake in MRP
- Share Acquisition: Waterfall Asset Management increased its stake in Millrose Properties (NYSE:MRP) by acquiring 219,984 shares in Q1, with an estimated transaction value of $6.62 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Quarter-End Value Increase: The position's quarter-end value rose by $5.96 million due to both share additions and price movements, reflecting the company's solid performance in the market and positive investor sentiment.
- Rapid Revenue Growth: Millrose Properties reported over 100% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, reaching $194.9 million, with net income of $122.9 million and earnings per share of $0.74, demonstrating strong demand and profitability in the residential real estate sector.
- Strategic Partnership Expansion: Millrose expanded its builder network to 17 counterparties, including a new top-10 national homebuilder, showcasing its increasing influence and market penetration within the industry.
See More
Millrose Properties Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Stable Financial Performance: Millrose Properties reported a net income of $122.9 million for Q1 2026, translating to $0.74 per share, driven primarily by $185 million in option fees and approximately $10 million in development loan income, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations.
- Investment Capital Growth: The company increased its invested capital to approximately $8.7 billion, with 95% pooled, and among 17 counterparties, about 31% of the portfolio is deployed outside the Lennar master program, indicating a proactive approach to portfolio diversification.
- Sustained Dividend Policy: Millrose declared a quarterly dividend of $0.76 per share, fully covered by an AFFO of $0.76 per share, reflecting the stability of the company's cash flow and commitment to shareholders, thereby enhancing market confidence.
- Robust Market Demand: Despite facing margin compression and market uncertainties among builders, CEO Richman noted that demand for land acquisition and development funding remains strong, with no changes in relationships with existing counterparties, showcasing the company's competitive position in the industry.
See More
Millrose Properties Q1 Earnings Report Analysis
- Financial Performance Overview: Millrose Properties reported Q1 FFO of $0.76, missing expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $194.9 million, up 135.7% year-over-year, indicating short-term financial volatility despite strong growth.
- Net Income Situation: Net income attributable to common shareholders was $122.9 million, or $0.74 per share, which, although solid, fell short of market expectations, potentially impacting stock price negatively.
- Future Investment Plans: The company reaffirmed its previous guidance, expecting to deploy approximately $1 billion of additional invested capital by mid-2026, targeting a quarterly AFFO run rate of $0.78 to $0.80 per share, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Long-Term Growth Expectations: Based on the current pipeline, total net new capital deployment of up to $2 billion is expected for full year 2026, implying approximately 10% year-over-year AFFO per share growth, providing long-term appeal for investors.
See More
Millrose Properties to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 6
- Earnings Announcement Date: Millrose Properties (MRP) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 6 before market open, with a consensus FFO estimate of $0.77, reflecting a robust year-over-year growth of 97.4%, indicating strong earnings potential.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $200.9 million, which has seen four upward revisions in the last three months, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's growth prospects, despite one downward revision.
- Earnings Estimate Volatility: Over the past three months, EPS estimates have experienced no upward revisions and one downward revision, indicating some uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's profitability, which could influence investor decisions.
- Long-Term Appeal: Despite near-term volatility, Millrose Properties offers an attractive yield exceeding 10% and strong growth expectations, showcasing its long-term investment appeal that may attract income-seeking investors.
See More
Millrose Properties to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Millrose Properties will announce its financial results for Q1 2026 on May 6, 2026, before market open, reflecting the company's ongoing growth in the residential construction sector.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 10:00 AM ET on the same day to provide a detailed interpretation of the financial results, enhancing investor understanding of operational performance.
- Investor Relations Information: Earnings reports and related materials will be available through the investor relations section of the company’s website, ensuring timely access to the latest information and improving transparency.
- Company Background: Millrose is the premier Homesite Option Purchase Platform for residential builders, focusing on land acquisition and horizontal development to provide a predictable supply of finished homesites, meeting market demand.
See More
