Cocoa Prices Decline: Cocoa futures have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly two years, providing a potential margin boost for chocolate manufacturers facing high ingredient costs and price-sensitive consumers during the holiday season.
Impact on Chocolate Makers: The decline in cocoa prices could help companies like Hershey, Mondelez, and Nestlé improve profitability by either maintaining pricing power or offering discounts to attract consumers, especially as seasonal demand increases.
Seasonal Demand Considerations: The holiday season typically sees a rise in chocolate demand, which, when combined with falling cocoa prices, could lead to positive earnings outcomes if companies manage to stabilize volume.
Caution on Demand: Despite the favorable pricing situation, there are concerns about softening global demand for cocoa, which may affect consumer spending and ultimately impact the profitability of chocolate makers if demand does not rebound as expected.
Wall Street analysts forecast HSY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HSY is 196.27 USD with a low forecast of 181.00 USD and a high forecast of 222.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HSY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HSY is 196.27 USD with a low forecast of 181.00 USD and a high forecast of 222.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
14 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 190.650
Low
181.00
Averages
196.27
High
222.00
Current: 190.650
Low
181.00
Averages
196.27
High
222.00
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$68 -> $67
2026-01-16
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$68 -> $67
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on HF Sinclair to $67 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites slight adjustments to operating assumptions. Piper is reducing its Q4 2025 EPS/EBITDA estimates lower to 44c share/$358M vs 96c share/$473M prior. The revision is driven by a weaker West Coast on a combination of lower-than-expected refining capture, throughput and modest adjustments to Lubes. Although the firm sees this as a tough quarter for HF Sinclair, it expects the noise on the WC to be non-recurring and remains bullish on the story into 2026.
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$188 -> $210
2026-01-16
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$188 -> $210
2026-01-16
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Hershey to $210 from $188 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the consumer staples group as part of a Q4 earnings preview. Barclays attributes the recent "enthusiasm" in the stock to "a flight to safety" and remains concerned about company- and sector-level fundamentals. Potential oil and currency headwinds could materialize in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HSY
Unlock Now
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Outperform
downgrade
$66 -> $62
2026-01-16
Reason
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Price Target
$66 -> $62
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng lowered the firm's price target on HF Sinclair to $62 from $66 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.
Piper Sandler
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$64 -> $68
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$64 -> $68
2026-01-08
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler upgraded HF Sinclair to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $68, up from $64.
About HSY
The Hershey Company is a snacks company. The Company's segments include North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks and International. The North America Confectionery segment is responsible for its traditional chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery market position in the United States and Canada. This includes its business in chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery, gum and refreshment products, protein bars, spreads, snack bites and mixes, as well as pantry and food service lines. This segment also includes its retail operations. The North America Salty Snacks segment is responsible for its salty snacking products in the United States. This includes ready-to-eat popcorn, baked and trans fat free snacks, pretzels and other snacks. The Company's portfolio includes chocolate and confectionery brands such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Kit Kat, Jolly Rancher, Ice Breakers, LesserEvil, Shaq-a-licious alongside salty snacks, including SkinnyPop and Dot's Homestyle Pretzels.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
