Carvana's Market Position: Carvana's share price has surged significantly, leading to its inclusion in the S&P 500 and surpassing the market values of major automakers like Ford and GM, with an enterprise value exceeding $100 billion.
Business Model Insights: The company operates as a vertically integrated lender and securitizer, focusing on subprime auto loans, which contributes to its profitability despite the risks associated with lending to lower-credit borrowers.
Loan Terms and Risks: Carvana's loans often have extended terms, increasing default risk as the value of used cars depreciates over time, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model in a challenging credit environment.
Investment Considerations: While Carvana has shown impressive recovery and growth, potential investors are cautioned about the high valuation and risks associated with its reliance on subprime lending, suggesting a careful approach to stock ownership.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVNA is 475.88 USD with a low forecast of 360.00 USD and a high forecast of 550.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVNA is 475.88 USD with a low forecast of 360.00 USD and a high forecast of 550.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 478.450
Low
360.00
Averages
475.88
High
550.00
Current: 478.450
Low
360.00
Averages
475.88
High
550.00
Barclays
John Babcock
Overweight
maintain
$465 -> $530
2026-01-21
New
Reason
Barclays
John Babcock
Price Target
$465 -> $530
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst John Babcock raised the firm's price target on Carvana to $530 from $465 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the auto retail group as part of its Q4 outlook. It broadly lowered estimates across the sector on "soft" auto sales unit pressures. However, trade checks suggest the used vehicle market has good momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Morgan Stanley
Andrew Percoco
Overweight
maintain
$450 -> $750
2026-01-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Andrew Percoco
Price Target
$450 -> $750
2026-01-08
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained an Overweight rating and $450 price target on Carvana, but boosted its bull case on the stock to $750, noting that the company's acquisition of four new car dealerships in December signal to the firm that Carvana is "readily expanding" its total addressable market, or TAM, beyond used cars. Morgan Stanley added that Carvana's proprietary software and physical infrastructure can enable advancements in both autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles.
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Wedbush
Scott Devitt
Outperform
maintain
$400 -> $500
2025-12-19
Reason
Wedbush
Scott Devitt
Price Target
$400 -> $500
2025-12-19
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt raised the firm's price target on Carvana to $500 from $400 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Consumer internet companies delivered strong returns in 2025, averaging 23% across 24 covered companies versus 19% for the NASDAQ, the analyst tells investors in a research note. In 2026, performance is expected to diverge as investors weigh factors such as AV disruption, AI monetization, ongoing investment cycles, and growing adoption of agentic AI, the firm says.
BofA
Underperform
maintain
$27 -> $31
2025-12-19
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$27 -> $31
2025-12-19
maintain
Underperform
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on CarMax (KMX) to $31 from $27 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported "soft" fiscal Q3 results and provided a Q4 outlook that plans for the company to accelerate sales trends by increasing marketing spend and leaning into pricing. The firm, while "constructive" on CarMax's recovery plan and seeming lack of pressure in subprime, sees share loss to Carvana (CVNA) and the ongoing management transition as likely to weigh on sentiment.
About CVNA
Carvana Co. is a holding company. The Company operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. The Company primarily acquires used vehicle inventory directly from customers, used car auctions, and wholesale used vehicle suppliers, including retail marketplace partners. Once it acquires a vehicle, the Company leverages its in-house logistics network or a vendor to transport the vehicle to one of its inspection and reconditioning centers (IRC) or auction locations with reconditioning capabilities, at which point the vehicle enters its inventory management system. It offers a mobile-optimized Website, where prospective retail car buyers can immediately begin browsing, researching, filtering, and identifying their vehicle of choice, where it offers an annotated virtual vehicle tour, which includes a 360-degree view of the interior and exterior of the actual vehicle. The Company also offers integrated financing using its loan origination platform.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
