Carlyle in Talks with UAE Investors for Lukoil Asset Purchase
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CG?
Carlyle has started exploratory talks with UAE investors to bring in partners should its agreement to purchase Lukoil's international assets proceed, Shadia Nasralla and Anna Hirtenstein of Reuters reports, citing three sources with knowledge of the process.
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Analyst Views on CG
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CG is 67.91 USD with a low forecast of 53.00 USD and a high forecast of 83.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 55.410
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
Current: 55.410
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
About CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment company. The Company's segments include Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest. The Global Private Equity segment advises the Company's buyout, growth, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds. The segment also includes the NGP Carry Funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management (NGP). The Global Credit segment advises funds and vehicles that pursue investment strategies including insurance solutions, liquid credit, opportunistic credit, direct lending, asset-backed finance, aviation finance, infrastructure credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment advises global private equity programs that pursue secondary purchases and financing of existing portfolios, managed co-investment programs, and primary fund investments. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment helps investors meet their objectives through tailored portfolio construction and investment selection.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
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- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
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- Assets Under Management Surge: By the end of 2025, Carlyle's assets under management reached $477 billion, positioning the firm as a leader in sponsor-backed IPOs, thereby solidifying its market dominance.
- Transaction Fees Soar: The firm reported transaction fees of $225 million in 2025, up nearly 40% year-over-year, which not only highlights strong market performance but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates continued growth into 2026, supported by global wealth expansion and improving capital market conditions, and plans to share multi-year financial targets at the upcoming shareholder update, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: The total segment revenue for Q4 reached $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion, and increasing from $782.5 million in the prior quarter and $948.5 million a year ago, reflecting strong market performance.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Carlyle's total assets under management grew to $477 billion, up 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, driven by a 20% increase in Carlyle AlpInvest AUM, showcasing robust growth potential in asset management.
- Strong Inflows: The firm saw $9.2 billion in inflows during Q4, down from $16.9 billion in Q3, yet total inflows for the year grew by 32% to $53.7 billion, indicating strong demand in global credit and asset-backed financing sectors.
See More
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- Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, with a record date of February 16, 2026, and a payment date of February 20, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Total Annual Distribution: The Board announced an aggregate distribution of $1.40 for common shareholders for the full year 2025, reflecting strong profitability and cash flow management, which enhances shareholder value.
- Investment Management Outlook: Carlyle faces challenges in investment management performance in 2026, necessitating close attention to market dynamics and strategic adjustments to ensure continued growth and competitiveness.
See More
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- Earnings Release: Under Armour is set to announce its Q3 earnings before the market opens on February 6, with analysts predicting a mid-single-digit revenue decline due to ongoing tariff impacts and soft demand, prompting investor interest in the company's strategic repositioning post-split with NBA star Stephen Curry.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the same day, and market participants will closely monitor his insights on balancing cooling inflation against a resilient economy, which could influence expectations for the timing and pace of rate cuts, especially following delays in labor data.
- IPO Developments: Liftoff Mobile is debuting on Nasdaq with a target valuation exceeding $5 billion, representing a test of investor appetite for new companies, particularly with high-profile names like SpaceX and Open AI poised for future listings.
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