California AG Challenges PHMSA's Pipeline Restart Permits

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

SOC-3.71%

Source: stocktwits

Updated: 4d ago

0mins

Source: stocktwits

Lawsuit Initiated: California Attorney General Rob Bonta filed a lawsuit challenging the Trump Administration's federal jurisdiction over Sable Offshore's Las Flores pipelines, arguing this move violates state regulations and could exacerbate environmental risks.
Pipeline Restart Controversy: The Las Flores pipelines have been shut down for a decade since the 2015 Refugio Beach oil spill, and the AG's lawsuit may further delay their restart plans, impacting the company's future operations and revenue.
Emergency Permit Approved: Despite the legal challenges, PHMSA issued an emergency special permit in December for segments of the Santa Ynez Pipeline System, allowing Sable to implement enhanced integrity management practices, indicating regulatory support for the pipeline's restart.
Significant Stock Volatility: Following the Attorney General's scrutiny, Sable Offshore's shares plunged over 14% on Friday, reflecting a 62% decline over the past 12 months, indicating market pessimism regarding the company's future prospects.

SOC

$9.87+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on SOC

Wall Street analysts forecast SOC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SOC is 22.50 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 29.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Analyst Rating

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 10.250

Low

19.00

Averages

22.50

High

29.00

Current: 10.250

Low

19.00

Averages

22.50

High

29.00

Benchmark

Subash Chandra

Buy

maintain

$20

2026-01-02

Reason

Benchmark

Subash Chandra

Price Target

$20

AI Analysis

2026-01-02

maintain

Buy

Reason

Benchmark analyst Subash Chandra says Sable Offshore's Santa Ynez Unit is "the closest it has been" to restart after the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals denied an emergency stay requested by environmental groups, but notes that the case wasn't dismissed, with responses and briefs due over the next few months. The firm has a Buy rating and $20 price target on Sable Offshore shares, which are up $1.69, or 19%, to $10.72 in Friday pre-market trading.

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$19

2025-12-29

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$19

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating and $19 price target on Sable Offshore, noting that the company's December 23 announcement that he Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration had issued an Emergency Special Permit approving the company's restart plans for Lines 324 and 325 was followed by an NGO lawsuit with the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. The firm said questions remain over what happens next, notably whether the case will result in an injunction. The uncertainty has led to volatility, but the firm believes there is a mismatched risk-reward, assuming federal support for the onshore option continues, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that we should know more over the next few weeks.

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Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$19

2025-12-23

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$19

2025-12-23

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies notes that on December 20th, PHMSA approved Sable Offshore's restart plans for Lines 324 & 325 clearing them as technically sound for restart. While first sales are still unsure, the firm sees this as a key milestone. Investor focus is on next steps / timing of restart and how PHMSA approval relates to the Consent Decree and the Judge Geck Case given the transfer of regulatory authority from OSFM to PHMSA. Jefferies' core takeaway is that the federal government wants the SYU to be producing. The firm has a Buy rating on the shares with a price target of $19.

Roth Capital

Leo Mariani

Buy

maintain

$22

2025-11-11

Reason

Roth Capital

Leo Mariani

Price Target

$22

2025-11-11

maintain

Buy

Reason

Roth Capital analyst Leo Mariani expects shares of Sable Offshore to react positively to the Washington Post's report that the Trump administration is preparing a proposal to open up offshore oil drilling along California's coast for the first time in decades. The Trump administration's support of oil drilling off the coast of California "shows clear support" for Sable's Santa Ynez project off the coast of California in federal waters and indicates that federal funding for the project is "still clearly an option," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth has a Buy rating on the shares with a $22 price target. The stock in early trading is up 4% to $6.24.

About SOC

Sable Offshore Corp. is an independent oil and gas company focused on developing the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) in federal waters offshore California. SYU consists of three offshore platforms and a wholly owned onshore processing facility located along the Gaviota Coast at Las Flores Canyon in Santa Barbara County, California. The offshore position comprises 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres. The Company’s Hondo platform and the Harmony platform develop the Hondo Field, and the Heritage platform develops the Pescado and Sacate Fields. The platforms are located five to nine miles offshore of Santa Barbara County in shallow water depths of 900 to 1,200 feet and service 112 wells, comprised of 90 producers, 12 injectors and 10 idle with an additional 102 identified, undrilled opportunities. The onshore facilities occupy approximately 35 acres and are comprised of an oil treating plant, a biologic/physical water treating plant, POPCO gas plant, and others.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.