Current Challenges in the Coffee Market: Major coffee companies are facing declining demand due to weak crop harvests, rising prices, and U.S. tariffs, leading to slow sales and poor valuations in the $400 billion market.
Shift in Growth Strategy: Companies like Nestlé and Starbucks are looking to expand into China and South America as potential growth markets, despite challenges such as low average incomes and competition from local brands.
Impact of Rising Costs: Soaring crop prices and increased operational costs are squeezing profit margins, with analysts noting that labor and raw materials account for about 90% of coffee prices, further complicating profitability.
Market Consolidation and Future Outlook: The coffee industry is undergoing a shake-out, with companies like Starbucks and Coca-Cola reassessing their investments, while the overall market may struggle to grow in a saturated environment.
Wall Street analysts forecast SBUX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SBUX is 96.12 USD with a low forecast of 59.00 USD and a high forecast of 115.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SBUX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SBUX is 96.12 USD with a low forecast of 59.00 USD and a high forecast of 115.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 95.830
Low
59.00
Averages
96.12
High
115.00
Current: 95.830
Low
59.00
Averages
96.12
High
115.00
Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett
Hold
maintain
$88 -> $95
2026-01-23
New
Reason
Gordon Haskett
Gordon Haskett
Price Target
$88 -> $95
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
New
maintain
Hold
Reason
Gordon Haskett raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $95 from $88 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares.
William Blair
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
2026-01-22
New
Reason
William Blair
Price Target
2026-01-22
New
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
William Blair upgraded Starbucks to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm expects Starbucks to post its first domestic comp gain in two years in the December quarter, which should set the brand up well for a return to positive full-year comp gains in FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Assuming about 3% global unit expansion alongside a low-single-digit comp, the firm sees a path to consolidated operating margin recovering within spitting distance of 2023 levels by 2030, implying a 15% to 20% EPS CAGR over the next five years, William Blair added.
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BofA
Buy
maintain
$106 -> $114
2026-01-21
New
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$106 -> $114
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $114 from $106 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Applying the firm's unchanged relative multiple to the firm's unchanged FY27 EPS estimate of $2.86 equates to a higher absolute multiple due to market multiple expansion, the analyst tells investors.
Mizuho
Neutral
maintain
$83 -> $86
2026-01-09
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$83 -> $86
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $86 from $83 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the restaurant group as part of its 2026 outlook. Mizuho's base case remains a restaurant price war continues this year to combat traffic share loss to grocery as a result of higher post-COVID relative price increases. Casual diners are best positioned to outperform, followed by coffee and fast casual, with quick service positioned least favorably, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho's top pick remains Dutch Bros. It added Brinker and Cheesecake Factory to its top three, while removing Domino's Pizza and Wingstop.
About SBUX
Starbucks Corporations is a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee globally. Its North America segment includes the United States and Canada. Its International segment includes China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its North America and International segments include both Company-operated and licensed stores. The Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Starbucks-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, such as Frappuccino and Starbucks Doubleshot, foodservice products, and other branded products sold outside the Company-operated and licensed stores. A large portion of its Channel Development business operates under a licensed model of the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestle, while its global ready-to-drink businesses operate under collaborative relationships with PepsiCo, Inc., Tingyi-Ashi Beverages Holding Co., Ltd., Arla Foods amba, Nestle, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
