Algoma Steel Projects Q4 2025 Shipments of 375K to 380K Tons
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 08 2026
0mins
Source: Globenewswire
- Shipment Guidance: Algoma Steel anticipates total steel shipments for Q4 2025 to be between 375,000 and 380,000 tons, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market due to steel tariffs.
- Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: The company expects an Adjusted EBITDA in the range of negative CAD 95 million to negative CAD 105 million, indicating significant financial pressure during its transition phase.
- EAF Project Progress: The first unit of Algoma's Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project is now operating six days a week, demonstrating positive advancements in the company's shift towards more sustainable steel production.
- Strategic Alignment: Algoma's transformation aligns with Canada's national interests by enhancing domestic steelmaking capacity and supporting critical infrastructure, showcasing the company's proactive approach to future market demands.
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Analyst Views on ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTL is 5.67 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 8.28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.580
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
Current: 4.580
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
About ASTL
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Algoma Steel Signs MOU with Hanwha Ocean for C$345M Investment
- Investment Agreement Signed: Algoma Steel's memorandum of understanding with Hanwha Ocean secures up to C$345 million (US$250 million) for a new structural steel beam mill in Ontario, reflecting strong confidence in future production capacity expansion.
- Funding Allocation Details: Of the committed C$345 million, approximately C$275 million is earmarked for the development of the beam mill, while the remaining funds will support Algoma Steel's other products, indicating a strategic focus on product diversification.
- Sales Revenue Sharing Terms: The agreement stipulates that Algoma Steel will make annual payments to Hanwha Ocean equal to 3% of the net sales from the beam mill for 10 years post-operation, which will directly impact the company's cash flow and profitability.
- Project Dependency: The effectiveness of the MOU is contingent upon Hanwha winning an order to build up to 12 submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy, emphasizing the close ties to government projects and commitment to local investment.
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Stock Rises 7.8%, Ideal for Momentum Investing
- Price Increase: Algoma Steel Group's stock has risen 7.8% over the past four weeks, reflecting growing investor interest and enhancing its market appeal.
- Long-Term Momentum: The stock gained 4.7% over the past 12 weeks, indicating not only strong short-term performance but also sustained upward potential, making it suitable for long-term momentum investors.
- Momentum Score: With a Momentum Score of B, Algoma Steel is positioned as an attractive entry point for investors, suggesting a high probability of success and drawing further market attention.
- Reasonable Valuation: Despite its fast-paced momentum, Algoma Steel trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of just 0.31, meaning investors pay only 31 cents for each dollar of sales, indicating significant room for growth.
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