Algoma Steel Group Expects Adjusted EBITDA of C$25M to C$35M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 31 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ASTL?
Algoma Steel Group provided guidance for its quarter ended March 31. Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 220,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of (C$25M)-(C$35M). The guidance for expected Adjusted EBITDA includes the benefit of a capacity utilization adjustment that is expected to be in the range of $90M-$95M. This represents the excess fixed costs incurred in the quarter despite lower production volumes as the Electric Arc Furnace, or EAF, ramps up. Rajat Marwah, CEO of Algoma, commented, "The Q1 of 2026 marked a defining moment in Algoma's transformation. With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete, we have fully transitioned to EAF steelmaking, the culmination of years of planning and close to $1B of investment. Our EAF is running around the clock, producing Volta, our sustainable low-carbon steel brand, at scale for the Canadian market. While near-term demand softness continues to weigh on shipment volumes, the structural cost improvements inherent to EAF steelmaking are expected to drive meaningful sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, we are well-positioned to serve growing demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense, and to build on the foundation we have put in place."
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Analyst Views on ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.740
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
Current: 4.740
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
About ASTL
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- EAF Transition Completed: Algoma has completed the wind-down of its blast furnace and coke oven operations, fully transitioning to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, marking the successful implementation of nearly $1 billion in investments, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
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See More
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- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel Group has established a joint venture with an armored vehicle manufacturer, aiming to leverage both parties' technological and market strengths to drive new product development that meets increasing security demands.
- Market Expansion Potential: This collaboration will enable Algoma to enter the armored vehicle market, which is expected to provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in the heavy manufacturing sector.
- Technological Integration Advantage: By partnering with the armored vehicle company, Algoma will be able to utilize its steel production capabilities to improve product quality and production efficiency, thereby positioning itself more favorably in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration Significance: This joint venture not only demonstrates Algoma's commitment to business diversification but also reflects its forward-thinking approach in addressing the growing market trends related to security and protection needs.
See More
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- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel has formed a joint venture with Canadian defense manufacturer Roshel to focus on ballistic steel production in Canada, which is expected to enhance national security and defense capabilities.
- Support for Defense Needs: The joint venture will supply ballistic steel for light utility vehicles, the Domestic Arctic Mobility Enhancement program, ships, and submarines, addressing Canada's growing defense requirements.
- Multi-Industry Applications: In addition to defense, this partnership will promote the use of ballistic steel across other sectors, including infrastructure, marine, aerospace, and security platforms, expanding market opportunities.
- Export Potential: Through this joint venture, Canadian-made ballistic steel solutions will have the opportunity to be exported to allied countries, further strengthening Canada's competitive position in the global defense market.
See More
Algoma Steel and Roshel Form Joint Venture for Ballistic Steel Production
- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel and Roshel have established Roshel Algoma Defence to create a Canadian Centre of Excellence for ballistic steel production, aligning with the Canadian government's defense investment strategy and enhancing domestic steel production capabilities to bolster national security.
- Comprehensive Production Capabilities: The joint venture will offer full-cycle capabilities including metal fabrication, forming, welding, and machining to meet Canadian defense procurement needs, such as Light Utility Vehicles and other critical defense projects, expected to create 500 high-quality manufacturing jobs and stimulate local economic growth.
- Strategic Partnership Opportunity: Roshel, as a Canadian armored vehicle manufacturer, will leverage domestically produced ballistic steel to participate in the Canadian Armed Forces' Light Utility Vehicle procurement, ensuring the security and stability of the defense supply chain while strengthening its strategic partnership with the government.
- Sustainability Commitment: Algoma Steel is transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking, projected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, and the establishment of the joint venture underscores the company's commitment to sustainable and green steel production, supporting Canada's industrial modernization efforts.
See More
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- Quarterly Shipment Forecast: Algoma anticipates steel shipments of approximately 220,000 tons for Q1 2026, facing challenges from soft demand, yet striving to enhance market share particularly in infrastructure and defense sectors.
- Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: The expected Adjusted EBITDA is projected to range from negative $25 million to negative $35 million, reflecting financial pressure despite lower production volumes, while benefiting from a capacity utilization adjustment of $90 million to $95 million, indicating the company's ongoing transformation efforts.
- EAF Transition Completed: Algoma has completed the wind-down of its blast furnace and coke oven operations, fully transitioning to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, marking the successful implementation of nearly $1 billion in investments, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
- Launch of Volta Brand: The newly introduced Volta™ brand signifies Algoma's commitment to producing low-carbon steel through EAF technology, aimed at meeting the growing Canadian market demand for environmentally friendly steel, thereby strengthening the company's leadership position in the green steel sector.
See More
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- Strategic Shift: Algoma Steel has exited its primary blast furnace and coke oven operations due to the impact of the 50% U.S. Section 232 tariff, pivoting its entire strategy towards the Canadian market and restructuring its cost base, thereby enhancing its competitive position in Canada.
- Financial Performance: The fourth quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA loss of $95.2 million, reflecting a negative EBITDA margin of 20.9%; however, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with $77 million in cash and $195 million in credit availability, indicating robust liquidity support.
- Shipment Outlook: Management expects total shipments for 2026 to range between 1 million and 1.2 million tons, with a slight decrease in the first quarter but a ramp-up in production capacity at EAF, reflecting a positive outlook on market demand.
- Strategic Partnerships: The binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean Co. Limited represents a potential value of $250 million, including $200 million for the development of a structural steel beam mill, indicating the company's strategic positioning for future revenue opportunities.
See More
Algoma Steel Reports Q4 Loss Amid Revenue Decline
- Earnings Loss: Algoma Steel reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -C$3.36, indicating significant challenges in profitability and reflecting broader industry weaknesses that could impact future operations.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated revenue of C$455M, a 22.9% year-over-year decrease, suggesting weakened market demand that may affect future investment and operational strategies.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss: The adjusted EBITDA loss reached C$95.2M with a margin of -20.9%, compared to a loss of C$60.3M and -10.2% margin in the prior year, highlighting a notable decline in operational efficiency.
- Cash Flow Improvement: Cash flows used in operating activities were C$3.0M, a significant improvement from C$76.9M in the prior-year quarter, indicating a more cautious approach to cash management despite the overall financial challenges.
See More
