Algoma Steel Group Expects Adjusted EBITDA of C$25M to C$35M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 31 2026
0mins
Algoma Steel Group provided guidance for its quarter ended March 31. Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 220,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of (C$25M)-(C$35M). The guidance for expected Adjusted EBITDA includes the benefit of a capacity utilization adjustment that is expected to be in the range of $90M-$95M. This represents the excess fixed costs incurred in the quarter despite lower production volumes as the Electric Arc Furnace, or EAF, ramps up. Rajat Marwah, CEO of Algoma, commented, "The Q1 of 2026 marked a defining moment in Algoma's transformation. With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete, we have fully transitioned to EAF steelmaking, the culmination of years of planning and close to $1B of investment. Our EAF is running around the clock, producing Volta, our sustainable low-carbon steel brand, at scale for the Canadian market. While near-term demand softness continues to weigh on shipment volumes, the structural cost improvements inherent to EAF steelmaking are expected to drive meaningful sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, we are well-positioned to serve growing demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense, and to build on the foundation we have put in place."
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Analyst Views on ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
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Moderate Buy
Current: 5.560
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
Current: 5.560
Low
4.43
Averages
5.79
High
8.49
About ASTL
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Algoma Steel Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Transformation Milestone: On January 18, Algoma Steel permanently halted blast furnace operations, ending 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and transitioning to a fully electric arc furnace operation, marking a significant strategic shift expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency.
- Sales Performance: The company achieved record plate sales of 116,000 tonnes in Q1, despite incurring CAD 27.4 million in tariff costs, demonstrating resilience under market pressures while reflecting a strategic pivot towards the Canadian market.
- Financial Position: At quarter-end, total available liquidity was approximately $553 million with cash of $65.3 million; although adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $28.7 million, management remains confident in reaching breakeven EBITDA by Q4, indicating optimism for future performance.
- Market Challenges: Coil pricing in Canada is suppressed due to domestic oversupply and import pressures, prompting Algoma to adopt a plate-focused strategy aimed at addressing market challenges through diversification initiatives to enhance competitiveness.
See More
Algoma Steel Group Reports Q1 Earnings
- Disappointing Earnings: Algoma Steel Group reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of -C$1.46, indicating significant challenges in profitability, reflecting weak market demand and increased cost pressures.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of C$296.9 million represents a 42.6% year-over-year decrease, suggesting that Algoma's sales have been severely impacted in a competitive market environment, potentially leading to tighter future cash flows.
- Market Attention: Despite the concerning financial performance, the market remains attentive to Algoma's partnership for ballistic steel production, which could provide potential opportunities for recovery in the future.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Analysts advise investors to remain cautious regarding Algoma, as early signs of recovery exist, but the overall market environment remains uncertain, which may affect the company's long-term growth prospects.
See More
Algoma Steel Completes Electric Arc Furnace Transition
- EAF Fully Operational: Algoma permanently closed its blast furnace on January 18, 2026, marking the end of 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and completing its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, with an operational loss of $153.5 million during the transition period highlighting the challenges faced in modernizing to low-carbon steel production.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company reported first-quarter revenue of $296.9 million, a 42.5% decrease from $517.1 million in the prior year, primarily due to reduced shipments and increased tariff costs during the EAF transition, indicating the difficulties in adapting to the new market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss Narrowed: The first quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA loss of $28.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $46.7 million in the previous year, reflecting better product mix and lower administrative expenses, despite incurring a $90.2 million capacity utilization charge.
- Strategic Partnerships Expand Market Reach: Algoma's joint venture with Roshel Inc. aims to enhance its competitiveness in the defense market by focusing on ballistic steel production, while the MOU with Hanwha Ocean could open new opportunities in the shipbuilding supply chain, showcasing the company's strategic growth initiatives.
See More
Algoma Steel Group to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Algoma Steel Group plans to release its first quarter financial results for 2026 after market close on May 12, showcasing the company's ongoing performance and growth in the steel industry.
- Conference Call Details: A webcast and conference call will be held on May 13, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to review financial results and address investor questions, enhancing transparency and investor relations.
- EAF Transition: Algoma is transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking, expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, marking one of North America's largest industrial decarbonization initiatives and aligning with sustainability goals.
- Launch of Volta Brand: The newly introduced Volta brand represents steel produced through EAF technology, promising the same performance with significantly lower emissions, further solidifying Algoma's leadership in the green steel market.
See More
Algoma Steel Forms Joint Venture with Armored Vehicle Company
- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel Group has established a joint venture with an armored vehicle manufacturer, aiming to leverage both parties' technological and market strengths to drive new product development that meets increasing security demands.
- Market Expansion Potential: This collaboration will enable Algoma to enter the armored vehicle market, which is expected to provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in the heavy manufacturing sector.
- Technological Integration Advantage: By partnering with the armored vehicle company, Algoma will be able to utilize its steel production capabilities to improve product quality and production efficiency, thereby positioning itself more favorably in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration Significance: This joint venture not only demonstrates Algoma's commitment to business diversification but also reflects its forward-thinking approach in addressing the growing market trends related to security and protection needs.
See More
Algoma Steel Forms Joint Venture with Roshel for Ballistic Steel Production
- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel has formed a joint venture with Canadian defense manufacturer Roshel to focus on ballistic steel production in Canada, which is expected to enhance national security and defense capabilities.
- Support for Defense Needs: The joint venture will supply ballistic steel for light utility vehicles, the Domestic Arctic Mobility Enhancement program, ships, and submarines, addressing Canada's growing defense requirements.
- Multi-Industry Applications: In addition to defense, this partnership will promote the use of ballistic steel across other sectors, including infrastructure, marine, aerospace, and security platforms, expanding market opportunities.
- Export Potential: Through this joint venture, Canadian-made ballistic steel solutions will have the opportunity to be exported to allied countries, further strengthening Canada's competitive position in the global defense market.
See More
Algoma Steel Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Transformation Milestone: On January 18, Algoma Steel permanently halted blast furnace operations, ending 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and transitioning to a fully electric arc furnace operation, marking a significant strategic shift expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency.
- Sales Performance: The company achieved record plate sales of 116,000 tonnes in Q1, despite incurring CAD 27.4 million in tariff costs, demonstrating resilience under market pressures while reflecting a strategic pivot towards the Canadian market.
- Financial Position: At quarter-end, total available liquidity was approximately $553 million with cash of $65.3 million; although adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $28.7 million, management remains confident in reaching breakeven EBITDA by Q4, indicating optimism for future performance.
- Market Challenges: Coil pricing in Canada is suppressed due to domestic oversupply and import pressures, prompting Algoma to adopt a plate-focused strategy aimed at addressing market challenges through diversification initiatives to enhance competitiveness.
See More
Algoma Steel Group Reports Q1 Earnings
- Disappointing Earnings: Algoma Steel Group reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of -C$1.46, indicating significant challenges in profitability, reflecting weak market demand and increased cost pressures.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of C$296.9 million represents a 42.6% year-over-year decrease, suggesting that Algoma's sales have been severely impacted in a competitive market environment, potentially leading to tighter future cash flows.
- Market Attention: Despite the concerning financial performance, the market remains attentive to Algoma's partnership for ballistic steel production, which could provide potential opportunities for recovery in the future.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Analysts advise investors to remain cautious regarding Algoma, as early signs of recovery exist, but the overall market environment remains uncertain, which may affect the company's long-term growth prospects.
See More
Algoma Steel Completes Electric Arc Furnace Transition
- EAF Fully Operational: Algoma permanently closed its blast furnace on January 18, 2026, marking the end of 125 years of coal-based steelmaking and completing its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, with an operational loss of $153.5 million during the transition period highlighting the challenges faced in modernizing to low-carbon steel production.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company reported first-quarter revenue of $296.9 million, a 42.5% decrease from $517.1 million in the prior year, primarily due to reduced shipments and increased tariff costs during the EAF transition, indicating the difficulties in adapting to the new market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss Narrowed: The first quarter saw an adjusted EBITDA loss of $28.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $46.7 million in the previous year, reflecting better product mix and lower administrative expenses, despite incurring a $90.2 million capacity utilization charge.
- Strategic Partnerships Expand Market Reach: Algoma's joint venture with Roshel Inc. aims to enhance its competitiveness in the defense market by focusing on ballistic steel production, while the MOU with Hanwha Ocean could open new opportunities in the shipbuilding supply chain, showcasing the company's strategic growth initiatives.
See More
Algoma Steel Group to Release Q1 2026 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Algoma Steel Group plans to release its first quarter financial results for 2026 after market close on May 12, showcasing the company's ongoing performance and growth in the steel industry.
- Conference Call Details: A webcast and conference call will be held on May 13, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to review financial results and address investor questions, enhancing transparency and investor relations.
- EAF Transition: Algoma is transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking, expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, marking one of North America's largest industrial decarbonization initiatives and aligning with sustainability goals.
- Launch of Volta Brand: The newly introduced Volta brand represents steel produced through EAF technology, promising the same performance with significantly lower emissions, further solidifying Algoma's leadership in the green steel market.
See More
Algoma Steel Forms Joint Venture with Armored Vehicle Company
- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel Group has established a joint venture with an armored vehicle manufacturer, aiming to leverage both parties' technological and market strengths to drive new product development that meets increasing security demands.
- Market Expansion Potential: This collaboration will enable Algoma to enter the armored vehicle market, which is expected to provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in the heavy manufacturing sector.
- Technological Integration Advantage: By partnering with the armored vehicle company, Algoma will be able to utilize its steel production capabilities to improve product quality and production efficiency, thereby positioning itself more favorably in the market.
- Strategic Collaboration Significance: This joint venture not only demonstrates Algoma's commitment to business diversification but also reflects its forward-thinking approach in addressing the growing market trends related to security and protection needs.
See More
Algoma Steel Forms Joint Venture with Roshel for Ballistic Steel Production
- Joint Venture Formation: Algoma Steel has formed a joint venture with Canadian defense manufacturer Roshel to focus on ballistic steel production in Canada, which is expected to enhance national security and defense capabilities.
- Support for Defense Needs: The joint venture will supply ballistic steel for light utility vehicles, the Domestic Arctic Mobility Enhancement program, ships, and submarines, addressing Canada's growing defense requirements.
- Multi-Industry Applications: In addition to defense, this partnership will promote the use of ballistic steel across other sectors, including infrastructure, marine, aerospace, and security platforms, expanding market opportunities.
- Export Potential: Through this joint venture, Canadian-made ballistic steel solutions will have the opportunity to be exported to allied countries, further strengthening Canada's competitive position in the global defense market.
See More
