Airline stocks look ready to travel skyward: BTIG
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 12 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ULCC?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Airline Stocks Outlook: Despite a challenging year for airline stocks, BTIG’s Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky suggests that they are poised for a rebound, noting that the U.S. Global JETS ETF is currently in oversold territory.
Market Challenges: The airline industry faces headwinds from weakening macro conditions and declining consumer confidence, which have negatively impacted preliminary Q1 financial results, as highlighted by Jefferies equity analysts.
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Analyst Views on ULCC
Wall Street analysts forecast ULCC stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.490
Low
3.00
Averages
5.25
High
8.00
Current: 5.490
Low
3.00
Averages
5.25
High
8.00
About ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiary, Frontier Airlines, Inc., which is an ultra-low-cost carrier company. The Company offers flights throughout the United States and to select near international destinations in the Americas. It has a fleet of approximately 159 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, consisting of eight A320ceos, 82 A320neos, 21 A321ceos and 48 A321neos. The Company primarily provides air transportation for passengers. It provides passenger airline service primarily to leisure travelers. It combines its fares with flexible optional services for an additional cost. Such additional options include carry-on and checked baggage, advance seat selection, extended-legroom premium seats, priority boarding and ticket changes and cancellations, as well as bundled options combining various optional services. The Company serves approximately 100 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Frontier Group's Strategic Shift and Financial Outlook
- Strategic Priorities: CEO James Dempsey emphasized that Frontier will focus on rightsizing the fleet, strengthening cost discipline, reducing cancellations, and improving on-time performance to enhance value for all stakeholders, demonstrating the company's commitment to transformation and confidence in its strategy.
- Cost Savings Target: The company aims to achieve $200 million in annual cost savings by 2027, which includes approximately $90 million in expected rent savings from the AerCap agreement, significantly improving the company's financial health and supporting future growth.
- Operational Efficiency Improvements: Over 85% of customers utilize the updated mobile app, and Frontier aims to enhance customer experience and loyalty by leveraging digital channels to provide timely updates during delays, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Growth Outlook: Management anticipates approximately 10% growth in 2026, primarily through infilling the existing network and selectively entering new markets, indicating the company's proactive approach to addressing market challenges while pursuing sustainable profitability.
See More
FRONTIER GROUP STOCK RISES 4% FOLLOWING Q4 REPORT
- Stock Performance: Frontier Group shares increased by 4% following the release of their fourth-quarter results.
- Financial Results: The fourth-quarter results contributed positively to investor sentiment, leading to the rise in stock value.
See More
FRONTIER CEO PREDICTS OVER 10% INCREASE IN UNIT REVENUES FOR Q1 2026
- Frontier CEO's Revenue Expectations: The CEO of Frontier Airlines anticipates a revenue increase of over 10% in the first quarter of 2026.
- Positive Outlook for Q1 2026: This optimistic forecast suggests strong performance and growth potential for the airline in the upcoming quarter.
See More
FRONTIER CEO AFFIRMS NO LIQUIDITY PENALTY IN AIRCRAFT RETURN AGREEMENT WITH AERCAP
No Liquidity Penalty: The CEO of Frontier has stated that there is no liquidity penalty associated with an aircraft return deal with AerCap.
Aircraft Return Deal: The agreement involves the return of an aircraft, indicating a strategic move in Frontier's operations.
See More
Frontier Group Reports Q4 Earnings Exceeding Expectations
- Stable Financial Performance: Frontier Group reported total revenue of $997 million in Q4, slightly down year-over-year but exceeding Wall Street expectations, demonstrating resilience in the low-cost airline market.
- Profitability Maintained: The earnings per share stood at $0.23, unchanged from last year and $0.10 above expectations, indicating positive progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Frontier anticipates a 10% decline in capacity for FY26, potentially facing an adjusted loss of $0.40 to a profit of $0.50 per share, reflecting risks from intensified market competition and demand fluctuations.
- Fleet Optimization Plan: The company reached a non-binding agreement with AerCap for the early return of 24 Airbus A320neo aircraft, aimed at enhancing fleet productivity and strengthening competitive positioning to support future profitability recovery.
See More
El Paso International Airport Flight Grounding Due to Security
- Flight Grounding Incident: The FAA abruptly grounded all flights at El Paso International Airport for 10 days due to 'special security' instructions, although the order was lifted hours later, indicating the urgency and complexity of the security issue.
- Unspecified Security Reasons: The FAA did not immediately clarify the specific security reasons for the grounding, while the airport's proximity to Biggs Army Airfield and the Mexican border suggests potential security threats, despite local officials stating there is no immediate threat to the community.
- Widespread Flight Impact: El Paso International Airport served nearly 3.5 million passengers in the first 11 months of 2025, with 1,314 scheduled departures this month, prompting airlines like United and Southwest to offer rebooking options for affected travelers, demonstrating a commitment to customer safety.
- Strong Political Response: Texas Representative Veronica Escobar described the FAA's action as 'unprecedented' and noted the lack of advance notice to local government and airport operations, urging the FAA to lift the temporary flight restrictions, reflecting concerns over the transparency of security measures.
See More
Frontier Group's Strategic Shift and Financial Outlook
- Strategic Priorities: CEO James Dempsey emphasized that Frontier will focus on rightsizing the fleet, strengthening cost discipline, reducing cancellations, and improving on-time performance to enhance value for all stakeholders, demonstrating the company's commitment to transformation and confidence in its strategy.
- Cost Savings Target: The company aims to achieve $200 million in annual cost savings by 2027, which includes approximately $90 million in expected rent savings from the AerCap agreement, significantly improving the company's financial health and supporting future growth.
- Operational Efficiency Improvements: Over 85% of customers utilize the updated mobile app, and Frontier aims to enhance customer experience and loyalty by leveraging digital channels to provide timely updates during delays, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Growth Outlook: Management anticipates approximately 10% growth in 2026, primarily through infilling the existing network and selectively entering new markets, indicating the company's proactive approach to addressing market challenges while pursuing sustainable profitability.
See More
FRONTIER GROUP STOCK RISES 4% FOLLOWING Q4 REPORT
- Stock Performance: Frontier Group shares increased by 4% following the release of their fourth-quarter results.
- Financial Results: The fourth-quarter results contributed positively to investor sentiment, leading to the rise in stock value.
See More
FRONTIER CEO PREDICTS OVER 10% INCREASE IN UNIT REVENUES FOR Q1 2026
- Frontier CEO's Revenue Expectations: The CEO of Frontier Airlines anticipates a revenue increase of over 10% in the first quarter of 2026.
- Positive Outlook for Q1 2026: This optimistic forecast suggests strong performance and growth potential for the airline in the upcoming quarter.
See More
FRONTIER CEO AFFIRMS NO LIQUIDITY PENALTY IN AIRCRAFT RETURN AGREEMENT WITH AERCAP
No Liquidity Penalty: The CEO of Frontier has stated that there is no liquidity penalty associated with an aircraft return deal with AerCap.
Aircraft Return Deal: The agreement involves the return of an aircraft, indicating a strategic move in Frontier's operations.
See More
Frontier Group Reports Q4 Earnings Exceeding Expectations
- Stable Financial Performance: Frontier Group reported total revenue of $997 million in Q4, slightly down year-over-year but exceeding Wall Street expectations, demonstrating resilience in the low-cost airline market.
- Profitability Maintained: The earnings per share stood at $0.23, unchanged from last year and $0.10 above expectations, indicating positive progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Frontier anticipates a 10% decline in capacity for FY26, potentially facing an adjusted loss of $0.40 to a profit of $0.50 per share, reflecting risks from intensified market competition and demand fluctuations.
- Fleet Optimization Plan: The company reached a non-binding agreement with AerCap for the early return of 24 Airbus A320neo aircraft, aimed at enhancing fleet productivity and strengthening competitive positioning to support future profitability recovery.
See More
El Paso International Airport Flight Grounding Due to Security
- Flight Grounding Incident: The FAA abruptly grounded all flights at El Paso International Airport for 10 days due to 'special security' instructions, although the order was lifted hours later, indicating the urgency and complexity of the security issue.
- Unspecified Security Reasons: The FAA did not immediately clarify the specific security reasons for the grounding, while the airport's proximity to Biggs Army Airfield and the Mexican border suggests potential security threats, despite local officials stating there is no immediate threat to the community.
- Widespread Flight Impact: El Paso International Airport served nearly 3.5 million passengers in the first 11 months of 2025, with 1,314 scheduled departures this month, prompting airlines like United and Southwest to offer rebooking options for affected travelers, demonstrating a commitment to customer safety.
- Strong Political Response: Texas Representative Veronica Escobar described the FAA's action as 'unprecedented' and noted the lack of advance notice to local government and airport operations, urging the FAA to lift the temporary flight restrictions, reflecting concerns over the transparency of security measures.
See More
