UBS and Jefferies Downgrade National Grid Amid Growth Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 16 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
National Grid PLC's stock fell 4.31% and hit a 20-day低点 as analysts express concerns over its growth prospects.
UBS downgraded National Grid from Neutral to Sell, citing that the current share price reflects asset growth that is unlikely to materialize, with a price target set at 1,160p. The stock trades at a 57% premium to its regulated asset base, which has historically led to significant declines. Jefferies also downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, highlighting a thin regulatory outlook that negatively impacts market sentiment, as the stock remains at a premium valuation within the sector.
These downgrades reflect a cautious outlook for National Grid, as analysts warn of potential challenges in capital expenditure delivery and regulatory updates that could affect long-term growth.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NGG?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NGG
Wall Street analysts forecast NGG stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 84.860
Low
85.50
Averages
85.50
High
85.50
Current: 84.860
Low
85.50
Averages
85.50
High
85.50
About NGG
National Grid plc is a United Kingdom-based energy company. The Company's principal activities involve the transmission and distribution of electricity in Great Britain and of electricity and gas in the northeastern United States. Its segments include UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York and National Grid Ventures. The UK Electricity Transmission segment includes the high-voltage electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment includes electricity distribution networks of NGED in the East Midlands, West Midlands and South West of England and South Wales. The New England segment includes electricity distribution networks, high-voltage electricity transmission networks and gas distribution networks in New England. The New York segment includes electricity distribution networks, high-voltage electricity transmission networks and gas distribution networks in New York.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
National Grid Reports Slightly Below Expected Annual Profit
- Annual Profit Performance: National Grid (NGG) reported an adjusted operating profit of £5.68 billion (~$7.68 billion) for the year ending March 31, falling short of the company-compiled consensus estimate of £5.75 billion, reflecting increased costs from storm damage repairs, although its U.S. business profit rose 7.4% to £636 million.
- Revenue Decline: The company's total revenue was £17.6 billion, down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating revenue pressure amid a high-cost environment that could impact future investment capabilities.
- Investment Plans: National Grid is embarking on its largest investment program in history, planning to spend at least £70 billion over the next five years to modernize and expand energy infrastructure across the U.K. and Northeast U.S., demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Debt Situation: As of the reporting period, National Grid's net debt reached £44.2 billion, exceeding market expectations of £43.3 billion, primarily due to dollar strengthening and timing effects from commodity costs, although overall results were in line with analyst expectations.
See More
National Grid Reports FY 2023 Performance
- Revenue Performance: National Grid reported a revenue of £17.69 billion for FY 2023, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year decline, indicating challenges in the market environment while demonstrating the company's ability to maintain stable operations amid adversity.
- Record Capital Investment: The company achieved a record capital investment of £11.6 billion in FY 2023, with expectations to reach £9.8 billion in 2024/25, driving asset growth to 10.9%, showcasing the company's strong commitment to future development.
- Earnings Per Share Growth: Underlying EPS stood at 78.0p, up 8% at constant currency, despite impacts from divestments, storm costs, and an increased share count, reflecting resilience in operational performance.
- Dividend Policy: A recommended final dividend of 32.14p results in a total dividend of 48.49p, up 3.8% year-over-year, aligning with the company's policy to increase dividends in line with UK CPIH, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
UK Political Turbulence and Trump's China Visit Impact Markets
- Market Opening Expectations: European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday, with the UK's FTSE index projected to rise by 0.3%, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 are both up by 0.5%, indicating investor focus on political developments.
- Political Challenges Intensify: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership is under threat, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting may launch a leadership bid on Thursday, creating uncertainty that could impact market sentiment and borrowing costs.
- Trump's China Visit Focus: U.S. President Trump's trip to China is in the spotlight, aiming to stabilize relations with Xi Jinping, with markets hopeful that this high-level meeting will influence global economic trends positively.
- Earnings Reports Release: Earnings from National Grid, 3i Group, Aviva, and Telefonica are set to be released on Thursday, with investors closely monitoring these figures to assess corporate performance amid the current political and economic climate.
See More
National Grid Set to Release FY Earnings on May 14
- Earnings Announcement: National Grid (NGG) is set to announce its FY earnings on May 14 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $5.25 and revenue estimate at $25.52 billion, highlighting investor interest in the company's performance.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, National Grid has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, indicating stability in profitability and revenue growth, which enhances market confidence in its future performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced five upward and five downward revisions, reflecting differing analyst views on the company's future performance that could influence investor decisions.
- External Impact Factors: National Grid anticipates slight earnings impacts from U.S. regulations and storms, which may exert some pressure on its profitability, necessitating investor attention to these external factors and their potential implications for the company's long-term strategy.
See More
National Grid Expects Earnings Impact from Regulatory Charges
- Earnings Guidance Adjustment: National Grid anticipates a net impact of approximately 1 pence per share on underlying earnings due to refund charges from a recent regulatory ruling and storm costs in the U.S., which may affect investor confidence as it reflects the recognition of customer refund charges.
- Stable Financial Performance: Despite the pressures from refunds and storm costs, National Grid maintains that its performance is in line with prior guidance, expecting underlying EPS growth in the range of 6%-8% for the current financial year, demonstrating resilience under adverse conditions.
- Historical Performance Review: For the financial year ending March 2025, National Grid reported an underlying EPS of 73.3 pence, indicating that the company has maintained relatively stable profitability despite external challenges.
- Market Reaction: National Grid's stock fell by 1.8% in Monday's trading, reflecting market concerns about the company's future profitability, particularly in light of additional costs and regulatory pressures.
See More
GridCARE and National Grid Collaborate on AI-Driven Grid Optimization
- Collaboration Goals: The partnership between GridCARE and National Grid aims to significantly reduce the connection time for large-load customers from the traditional 3-7 years to just 6-12 months through AI-driven grid optimization, enhancing grid reliability and economic benefits for customers.
- Technological Innovation: GridCARE's EnergizeTM platform employs generative AI models to evaluate quadrillions of grid operating scenarios, accurately identifying approximately one-third of the grid's underutilized capacity, thereby providing additional power support to customers and driving economic growth.
- Economic Impact: According to JLL's 2026 Global Data Center Outlook, hyperscale development typically requires around $10 million per megawatt in infrastructure investment, which is expected to create thousands of jobs and significant new tax revenues, indicating the potentially transformative economic impact of new AI capabilities.
- Cost Efficiency: By improving asset utilization, GridCARE's model not only accelerates the development of large loads but also maintains rate stability while reducing long-term rate pressure, ensuring that infrastructure costs remain justifiable and manageable.
See More
National Grid Reports Slightly Below Expected Annual Profit
- Annual Profit Performance: National Grid (NGG) reported an adjusted operating profit of £5.68 billion (~$7.68 billion) for the year ending March 31, falling short of the company-compiled consensus estimate of £5.75 billion, reflecting increased costs from storm damage repairs, although its U.S. business profit rose 7.4% to £636 million.
- Revenue Decline: The company's total revenue was £17.6 billion, down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating revenue pressure amid a high-cost environment that could impact future investment capabilities.
- Investment Plans: National Grid is embarking on its largest investment program in history, planning to spend at least £70 billion over the next five years to modernize and expand energy infrastructure across the U.K. and Northeast U.S., demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Debt Situation: As of the reporting period, National Grid's net debt reached £44.2 billion, exceeding market expectations of £43.3 billion, primarily due to dollar strengthening and timing effects from commodity costs, although overall results were in line with analyst expectations.
See More
National Grid Reports FY 2023 Performance
- Revenue Performance: National Grid reported a revenue of £17.69 billion for FY 2023, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year decline, indicating challenges in the market environment while demonstrating the company's ability to maintain stable operations amid adversity.
- Record Capital Investment: The company achieved a record capital investment of £11.6 billion in FY 2023, with expectations to reach £9.8 billion in 2024/25, driving asset growth to 10.9%, showcasing the company's strong commitment to future development.
- Earnings Per Share Growth: Underlying EPS stood at 78.0p, up 8% at constant currency, despite impacts from divestments, storm costs, and an increased share count, reflecting resilience in operational performance.
- Dividend Policy: A recommended final dividend of 32.14p results in a total dividend of 48.49p, up 3.8% year-over-year, aligning with the company's policy to increase dividends in line with UK CPIH, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
UK Political Turbulence and Trump's China Visit Impact Markets
- Market Opening Expectations: European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday, with the UK's FTSE index projected to rise by 0.3%, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 are both up by 0.5%, indicating investor focus on political developments.
- Political Challenges Intensify: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership is under threat, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting may launch a leadership bid on Thursday, creating uncertainty that could impact market sentiment and borrowing costs.
- Trump's China Visit Focus: U.S. President Trump's trip to China is in the spotlight, aiming to stabilize relations with Xi Jinping, with markets hopeful that this high-level meeting will influence global economic trends positively.
- Earnings Reports Release: Earnings from National Grid, 3i Group, Aviva, and Telefonica are set to be released on Thursday, with investors closely monitoring these figures to assess corporate performance amid the current political and economic climate.
See More
National Grid Set to Release FY Earnings on May 14
- Earnings Announcement: National Grid (NGG) is set to announce its FY earnings on May 14 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $5.25 and revenue estimate at $25.52 billion, highlighting investor interest in the company's performance.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, National Grid has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, indicating stability in profitability and revenue growth, which enhances market confidence in its future performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced five upward and five downward revisions, reflecting differing analyst views on the company's future performance that could influence investor decisions.
- External Impact Factors: National Grid anticipates slight earnings impacts from U.S. regulations and storms, which may exert some pressure on its profitability, necessitating investor attention to these external factors and their potential implications for the company's long-term strategy.
See More
National Grid Expects Earnings Impact from Regulatory Charges
- Earnings Guidance Adjustment: National Grid anticipates a net impact of approximately 1 pence per share on underlying earnings due to refund charges from a recent regulatory ruling and storm costs in the U.S., which may affect investor confidence as it reflects the recognition of customer refund charges.
- Stable Financial Performance: Despite the pressures from refunds and storm costs, National Grid maintains that its performance is in line with prior guidance, expecting underlying EPS growth in the range of 6%-8% for the current financial year, demonstrating resilience under adverse conditions.
- Historical Performance Review: For the financial year ending March 2025, National Grid reported an underlying EPS of 73.3 pence, indicating that the company has maintained relatively stable profitability despite external challenges.
- Market Reaction: National Grid's stock fell by 1.8% in Monday's trading, reflecting market concerns about the company's future profitability, particularly in light of additional costs and regulatory pressures.
See More
GridCARE and National Grid Collaborate on AI-Driven Grid Optimization
- Collaboration Goals: The partnership between GridCARE and National Grid aims to significantly reduce the connection time for large-load customers from the traditional 3-7 years to just 6-12 months through AI-driven grid optimization, enhancing grid reliability and economic benefits for customers.
- Technological Innovation: GridCARE's EnergizeTM platform employs generative AI models to evaluate quadrillions of grid operating scenarios, accurately identifying approximately one-third of the grid's underutilized capacity, thereby providing additional power support to customers and driving economic growth.
- Economic Impact: According to JLL's 2026 Global Data Center Outlook, hyperscale development typically requires around $10 million per megawatt in infrastructure investment, which is expected to create thousands of jobs and significant new tax revenues, indicating the potentially transformative economic impact of new AI capabilities.
- Cost Efficiency: By improving asset utilization, GridCARE's model not only accelerates the development of large loads but also maintains rate stability while reducing long-term rate pressure, ensuring that infrastructure costs remain justifiable and manageable.
See More
