Redwire Stock Drops Amid Drone Dominance Speculation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RDW?
Source: Fool
Redwire Corp's stock has fallen 5.23% as it hits a 20-day low, reflecting ongoing concerns in the market.
The decline follows Redwire's failure to secure a position in the Pentagon's Drone Dominance program after acquiring Edge Autonomy, leading to diminished investor confidence. Despite being undervalued at 5 times trailing sales, the stock's recent performance has raised questions about its future in the defense sector, especially as it navigates intensified competition in the drone market.
Investors are advised to monitor Redwire's strategic adjustments in response to market changes, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors, where growth potential remains despite current setbacks.
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Analyst Views on RDW
Wall Street analysts forecast RDW stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.400
Low
6.00
Averages
12.50
High
22.00
Current: 8.400
Low
6.00
Averages
12.50
High
22.00
About RDW
Redwire Corporation is an integrated aerospace and defense company focused on advanced technologies. The Company is focused on aerospace infrastructure, autonomous systems and multi-domain operations leveraging digital engineering and AI automation. Its capabilities include avionics, sensors, power solutions, critical structures, mechanisms, radio frequency systems, platforms, missions, microgravity payloads and uncrewed airborne system (UAS) technology. It specializes in core avionics, such as scalable power distribution and on-board computing capabilities. These specialized avionics and sensors can be applied across multiple space environments, including Low Earth Orbit, Geostationary Orbit, Cis-lunar and deep space missions. It provides a range of sensors, including star trackers and sun sensors, which are critical for navigation and control of spacecraft. It offers a variety of solar array solutions for spacecraft spanning the spectrum of size, power needs, and orbital location.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Redwire Corporation will report its full-year and fourth-quarter financial results for 2025 after market close on February 25, 2026, highlighting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: Management will conduct a conference call at 9 a.m. ET on February 26, 2026, to review the financial results for 2025, which is expected to attract significant attention from investors and analysts.
- Participation Method: Investors can join the call by dialing 877-485-3108 or 201-689-8264, with conference ID 13757980, ensuring broad dissemination of information and ease of participation.
- Replay Availability: For those unable to attend the live event, a replay will be available for two weeks, further enhancing interaction and information sharing between the company and its investors.
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- Conference Call Details: Management will conduct a conference call at 9 a.m. ET on February 26, 2026, to review the financial results for 2025, which is expected to attract significant attention from investors and analysts.
- Participation Method: Investors can join the call by dialing 877-485-3108 or 201-689-8264, with conference ID 13757980, ensuring broad dissemination of information and ease of participation.
- Replay Availability: For those unable to attend the live event, a replay will be available for two weeks, further enhancing interaction and information sharing between the company and its investors.
See More
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See More
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- Military Power Enhancement: The U.S. is significantly increasing its deployment of fighter jets and support aircraft in the Middle East, marking the largest air power presence since the 2003 Iraq invasion, potentially preparing for strikes against Iran.
- Carrier Deployment: A second aircraft carrier equipped with attack and electronic warfare jets has been deployed, further enhancing U.S. military presence in the region and indicating high vigilance towards potential conflicts.
- Command and Control Capability: Command-and-control aircraft are en route to the Middle East, essential for coordinating large-scale air operations, indicating U.S. readiness for a sustained air campaign.
- Strategic Decision Uncertainty: Despite President Trump being briefed on military options, he has shown a preference for negotiations, leaving the authorization for strikes against Iran uncertain, reflecting the complex geopolitical landscape.
See More
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- Military Action Signals: The Trump administration's signals of possible military action have led to a broad increase in U.S. defense stocks, reinforcing expectations for sustained demand for Redwire's national security infrastructure, despite ongoing short-term stock pressures.
- Short-Term Weakness Persists: Redwire's stock is currently trading 22% below its 20-day simple moving average and 1.9% below its 100-day SMA, indicating short-term weakness while showing some resilience in the longer term.
- Poor Stock Performance: Over the past 12 months, Redwire shares have decreased by 64.99%, positioning the stock closer to its 52-week lows, suggesting ongoing challenges for the company and caution for investors.
- Technical Indicator Analysis: The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 41.01, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD at -0.4238 is below its signal line of 0.0797, suggesting bearish pressure on the stock and reflecting uncertainty in its near-term direction.
See More
U.S. Defense Stocks Surge on Iran Military Action Speculation
- Defense Stocks Surge: U.S. defense stocks rose sharply as reports indicated the Trump administration is nearing potential military action against Iran, with the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:XAR) gaining 2% and the Global X Defense Tech ETF (NYSE:SHLD) rising 2.7%, significantly outperforming the broader market and reflecting bullish sentiment in the defense sector.
- Military Presence Expands: The U.S. has significantly increased its military footprint in the Middle East, deploying two aircraft carriers, multiple warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and advanced air defense systems, indicating preparations for a sustained military campaign in response to escalating tensions.
- Prediction Markets Flash Warning: Betting-implied odds on Polymarket for a U.S. attack on Iran surged, with probabilities rising 8 percentage points to 20% by February 21, and a dramatic increase to 55% by March 15, highlighting growing market concerns over potential escalation in the region.
- Limited Diplomatic Progress: Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Iranian officials have shown limited progress, with Vice President JD Vance stating that diplomacy could reach its “natural end” if Iran fails to meet U.S. red lines related to its nuclear program, further intensifying market anxiety regarding the situation.
See More
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- Stock Recovery: Redwire Corporation shares rose 3.25% to $8.26 in premarket trading on Wednesday, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, while also benefiting from broader market gains.
- Financial Expectations: Redwire is set to report earnings on February 25, with consensus estimates predicting a loss of 16 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of $1.38 year-over-year, and revenue expected to reach $99.47 million, up from $69.56 million last year, indicating signs of recovery amidst challenges.
- Technical Analysis: Despite a 66.07% decline in stock price over the past year, the current price is 22.1% below the 20-day SMA and just 2% below the 100-day SMA, suggesting potential short-term bearish pressure but medium-term stabilization prospects.
- Analyst Ratings: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $10.93, with HC Wainwright & Co. maintaining a target of $22.00, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowers its target to $9.00, reflecting differing analyst views on the company's future performance.
See More
