Vertex Stock: Reasons Behind One Fund Increasing Its $94.3 Million Stake Despite Declining Shares
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 07 2025
0mins
Should l Buy VERX?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Tensile Capital Management's Stake in Vertex: Tensile Capital Management increased its position in Vertex by 160,559 shares in Q3, bringing its total to 3.8 million shares valued at $94.3 million, making it the fund's largest holding.
Market Value Decline: Despite the increase in shares, the market value of Tensile's position fell by approximately $34.4 million, with Vertex shares trading 65% lower than in January.
Vertex's Financial Performance: Vertex reported double-digit revenue growth, including a 12.7% increase in overall revenue and a 29.6% rise in cloud revenue, alongside a new $150 million share-repurchase program.
Investment Outlook: The significant drop in Vertex's stock price presents a contrarian investment opportunity, as the company maintains strong fundamentals, including $648 million in annual recurring revenue and a 107% net revenue retention rate.
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Analyst Views on VERX
Wall Street analysts forecast VERX stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.260
Low
22.00
Averages
27.42
High
37.00
Current: 14.260
Low
22.00
Averages
27.42
High
37.00
About VERX
Vertex, Inc. is a global provider of indirect tax solutions. The Company and its subsidiaries operate as solutions providers of state, local and value-added tax calculation, compliance, and analytics, offering software products that are sold through software licenses and software-as-a-service (cloud) subscriptions. It also provides implementation and training services in connection with its software license and cloud subscriptions, transaction tax returns outsourcing, and other tax-related services. Its software includes tax determination, compliance and reporting, tax data management and document management tools, analytics and insights, as well as pre-built integrations with business applications. Its tax-determination solutions enable real-time calculation of indirect taxes and applicable fees for sale and purchase transactions. Its compliance and reporting solutions enable the automation of signature-ready returns and remittance of indirect tax to appropriate jurisdictions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tensile Capital Management Sells Vertex Shares
- Share Sale Details: Tensile Capital Management sold 384,415 shares of Vertex in Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of $8.32 million, reflecting fluctuations in the company's average stock price during the quarter.
- Holding Proportion Change: Following the sale, Tensile's stake in Vertex decreased to 8.8% from 11.8%, indicating a strategic reduction while still maintaining it as their third-largest holding among 24 stocks.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 17, 2026, Vertex shares were priced at $12.34, down 74.09% year-over-year, highlighting significant market pressure and operational challenges faced by the company.
- Financial Overview: Vertex has a market capitalization of $1.97 billion, with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $748.44 million and a net income of $7.21 million, demonstrating its ongoing operational capacity in the tax technology solutions sector.
See More
Vertex Stock Rises Following Analyst Upgrade
- Stock Surge: Vertex shares rose nearly 6% on Thursday, closing at $12.79, indicating strong investor optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Hotchkiss reiterated a buy rating on Vertex, maintaining a price target of $23, which is nearly 80% higher than the recent closing price, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Profit Growth Forecast: Hotchkiss predicts that Vertex's net income will increase this year compared to last, suggesting that the company's various opportunities in fintech, including e-invoicing services, could yield significant returns.
- Revenue Improvement: The analyst noted that Vertex's revenue for 2025 is projected to rise by 12% over the previous year, demonstrating the company's strong performance during periods of economic growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
ETF Analysis: FTLS Implies 16.68% Upside Potential
- FTLS Target Price Analysis: According to ETF Channel, the implied analyst target price for the First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF (FTLS) is $82.62 per unit, while its recent trading price is $70.81, indicating a 16.68% upside potential that reflects market optimism towards this ETF.
- HUBS Price Potential: HubSpot Inc (HUBS) is currently trading at $228.95, with an analyst target price of $524.88, suggesting a 129.25% upside, showcasing strong confidence from analysts regarding its future growth.
- VERX Growth Expectations: Vertex Inc (VERX) has a current share price of $12.37, while analysts project a target price of $27.57, indicating a potential upside of 122.89%, reflecting a positive outlook on its business prospects.
- NCNO Market Outlook: nCino Inc (NCNO) is trading at $15.85, with an analyst target price of $33.93, which implies a 114.09% upside potential, demonstrating analysts' positive expectations for its future performance.
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Vertex, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Stable Financial Performance: Vertex reported Q4 2025 revenue of $194.7 million, meeting expectations, while adjusted EBITDA reached $42.5 million, exceeding the high end of guidance, reflecting strong performance with a blue-chip customer base, including over 60% of Fortune 500 companies.
- Customer Attrition Challenges: Despite a 9.1% revenue increase, 2025 faced heightened customer attrition, particularly among smaller clients, driven by uncontrollable factors like M&A and bankruptcies, impacting retention metrics, which management is addressing with strategic initiatives.
- AI Strategic Transformation: CEO Chris Young emphasized the goal of transforming Vertex into an AI-first company, anticipating that new offerings like smart categorization will enhance internal efficiency and customer service capabilities, thereby driving future revenue growth.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: CFO John Schwab provided guidance for 2026 revenues of $823.5 million to $831.5 million, with cloud revenue expected to grow by 25%, and adjusted EBITDA targets of $188 million to $192 million, indicating strong confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Vertex (VERX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Vertex Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Revenue Growth
- Earnings Highlights: Vertex reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 for Q4 2025, with revenue reaching $194.7 million, reflecting a 9.1% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's stable growth potential in the market.
- Software Subscription Revenue Growth: Software subscription revenues totaled $166.2 million, up 8.9% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ongoing appeal and expansion of its customer base in the software services sector.
- Significant Cloud Revenue Increase: Cloud revenues reached $94.6 million, a 23.0% increase year-over-year, highlighting the company's strong performance and rising demand in the cloud computing space, further solidifying its market position.
- Annual Recurring Revenue: The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $671.0 million, up 11.3%, showcasing the company's solid performance in customer retention and revenue stability, despite a slight decline in Net Revenue Retention to 105%.
See More
Tensile Capital Management Sells Vertex Shares
- Share Sale Details: Tensile Capital Management sold 384,415 shares of Vertex in Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of $8.32 million, reflecting fluctuations in the company's average stock price during the quarter.
- Holding Proportion Change: Following the sale, Tensile's stake in Vertex decreased to 8.8% from 11.8%, indicating a strategic reduction while still maintaining it as their third-largest holding among 24 stocks.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 17, 2026, Vertex shares were priced at $12.34, down 74.09% year-over-year, highlighting significant market pressure and operational challenges faced by the company.
- Financial Overview: Vertex has a market capitalization of $1.97 billion, with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $748.44 million and a net income of $7.21 million, demonstrating its ongoing operational capacity in the tax technology solutions sector.
See More
Vertex Stock Rises Following Analyst Upgrade
- Stock Surge: Vertex shares rose nearly 6% on Thursday, closing at $12.79, indicating strong investor optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Hotchkiss reiterated a buy rating on Vertex, maintaining a price target of $23, which is nearly 80% higher than the recent closing price, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Profit Growth Forecast: Hotchkiss predicts that Vertex's net income will increase this year compared to last, suggesting that the company's various opportunities in fintech, including e-invoicing services, could yield significant returns.
- Revenue Improvement: The analyst noted that Vertex's revenue for 2025 is projected to rise by 12% over the previous year, demonstrating the company's strong performance during periods of economic growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
ETF Analysis: FTLS Implies 16.68% Upside Potential
- FTLS Target Price Analysis: According to ETF Channel, the implied analyst target price for the First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF (FTLS) is $82.62 per unit, while its recent trading price is $70.81, indicating a 16.68% upside potential that reflects market optimism towards this ETF.
- HUBS Price Potential: HubSpot Inc (HUBS) is currently trading at $228.95, with an analyst target price of $524.88, suggesting a 129.25% upside, showcasing strong confidence from analysts regarding its future growth.
- VERX Growth Expectations: Vertex Inc (VERX) has a current share price of $12.37, while analysts project a target price of $27.57, indicating a potential upside of 122.89%, reflecting a positive outlook on its business prospects.
- NCNO Market Outlook: nCino Inc (NCNO) is trading at $15.85, with an analyst target price of $33.93, which implies a 114.09% upside potential, demonstrating analysts' positive expectations for its future performance.
See More
Vertex, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Stable Financial Performance: Vertex reported Q4 2025 revenue of $194.7 million, meeting expectations, while adjusted EBITDA reached $42.5 million, exceeding the high end of guidance, reflecting strong performance with a blue-chip customer base, including over 60% of Fortune 500 companies.
- Customer Attrition Challenges: Despite a 9.1% revenue increase, 2025 faced heightened customer attrition, particularly among smaller clients, driven by uncontrollable factors like M&A and bankruptcies, impacting retention metrics, which management is addressing with strategic initiatives.
- AI Strategic Transformation: CEO Chris Young emphasized the goal of transforming Vertex into an AI-first company, anticipating that new offerings like smart categorization will enhance internal efficiency and customer service capabilities, thereby driving future revenue growth.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: CFO John Schwab provided guidance for 2026 revenues of $823.5 million to $831.5 million, with cloud revenue expected to grow by 25%, and adjusted EBITDA targets of $188 million to $192 million, indicating strong confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Vertex (VERX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Vertex Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Revenue Growth
- Earnings Highlights: Vertex reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 for Q4 2025, with revenue reaching $194.7 million, reflecting a 9.1% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's stable growth potential in the market.
- Software Subscription Revenue Growth: Software subscription revenues totaled $166.2 million, up 8.9% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ongoing appeal and expansion of its customer base in the software services sector.
- Significant Cloud Revenue Increase: Cloud revenues reached $94.6 million, a 23.0% increase year-over-year, highlighting the company's strong performance and rising demand in the cloud computing space, further solidifying its market position.
- Annual Recurring Revenue: The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $671.0 million, up 11.3%, showcasing the company's solid performance in customer retention and revenue stability, despite a slight decline in Net Revenue Retention to 105%.
See More
