USA Rare Earth Shares Rebound Amid Strategic Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 21 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Price Rebound: USA Rare Earth shares rose nearly 7% today to $24.18, with a market cap of $4.9 billion, driven by concerns over the security of the rare earth supply chain, as improving relations with China may lead to price volatility.
- Government Funding Award: The company secured a $19.3 million award from the Department of Energy to develop a rare earth element separation project, which not only enhances its market position but also underscores the government's commitment to securing the domestic supply chain.
- Market Dynamics: Despite a significant decline in the rare earth sector over the past week, today's rebound reflects investor confidence in USA Rare Earth's future, particularly as the company actively advances its Round Top mine development plan, expected to be operational by 2028.
- Industry Outlook: While relations with China may be thawing, China's dominant position in the rare earth market remains a concern, prompting investors to monitor potential policy changes that could impact rare earth prices and ensure U.S. strategic security in the supply chain.
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Analyst Views on USAR
Wall Street analysts forecast USAR stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 28.190
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
Current: 28.190
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
About USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a supplier of sintered neo magnets and other rare earth metals. The Company is engaged in developing a NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and intends to establish domestic rare earth and critical minerals supply, extraction, and processing capabilities to both supply its magnet manufacturing plant and market surplus materials to third parties. It is focused on developing domestic rare earth production that offers sustainable and secure domestic supply of materials critical to key industries. Its vertically integrated approach consists of sourcing rare earth elements (REEs), in addition to other critical minerals such as gallium, to producing finished NdFeB magnets. The Company serve a variety of industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and computing and semiconductors. The Company owns, Less Common Metals Ltd., which is a scaled ex-China rare earth metal and alloy manufacturer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Resource Assessment: The Skaergaard Project's NI 43-101 mineral resource indicates 25.4 million ounces of palladium-equivalent and 23.5 million ounces of gold-equivalent, with an undiscounted in-situ metal value of approximately $68 billion at 2026 metal prices, highlighting the project's substantial economic potential.
- Technical Collaboration: Greenland Mines has engaged GTK Mintec under a framework agreement to conduct integrated mineralogical, metallurgical, and pilot-scale processing programs, aimed at optimizing resource development processes and enhancing the project's technical feasibility, thereby increasing market competitiveness.
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- Project Advancement: Greenland Mines is transitioning its flagship Skaergaard PGM-Gold-Critical Metals Project from technical study to active execution in 2026, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's position in the critical minerals supply chain.
- Resource Estimation: The NI 43-101 mineral resource for the Skaergaard Project indicates 25.4 million ounces of palladium-equivalent and 23.5 million ounces of gold-equivalent, with an undiscounted in-situ metal value of approximately $68 billion at 2026 metal prices, showcasing the project's substantial economic potential.
- Technical Collaboration: Greenland Mines has engaged GTK Mintec under a framework agreement to conduct integrated mineralogical and metallurgical processing programs, aimed at improving resource development efficiency and optimizing production processes, thereby enhancing the project's market competitiveness.
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- Industry Impact: Bowman's appointment not only highlights his expertise in national security policy but also signifies USA Rare Earth's critical role in the defense industrial base, potentially enhancing the company's influence in related sectors.
- Strategic Significance: Bowman emphasized that strengthening technology development and securing critical supply chains are urgent challenges facing the U.S., and this appointment may bring more policy support and business opportunities to USA Rare Earth, reinforcing its leadership in the rare earth and critical minerals sector.
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MP Materials Sues USA Rare Earth for Technology Theft
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- Failure to Meet Targets: MP claims that USA Rare Earth has repeatedly failed to achieve its commercial and performance targets, resorting to technology theft, which reflects the pressures and challenges it faces in the market.
- Employee Misappropriation Issue: MP alleges that a former employee disclosed critical technology formulas after joining USA Rare Earth, revealing the tension between talent mobility and trade secret protection within the industry.
- Cultural Dispute: USA Rare Earth responded by stating that MP's allegations misrepresent its company culture and employees, indicating the adversarial positions of both companies in terms of public image and legal battles.
See More
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- Defense Demand Focus: These firms are targeting strategic minerals like antimony, rare earths, tungsten, and uranium to meet the U.S. military's annual demand of 2,000 to 3,000 metric tons of tungsten, reflecting a shift in market positioning towards defense applications.
- Government Funding Support: For instance, Guardian Metal Resources has secured $6.2 million from the Pentagon and is applying for an additional $100 million, highlighting the government's commitment to rebuilding critical mineral supply chains.
- Private Capital Response: JPMorgan has indicated it could invest up to $10 billion in sectors tied to national economic security, showcasing private capital's positive outlook on defense-driven mining investments, although market speculation remains a concern.
See More
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- Resource Advantage: The Round Top deposit is considered one of the largest rare-earth sources in the U.S., containing 16 of the 17 rare-earth elements, with its Oklahoma magnet factory expected to produce 1,200 metric tons initially and ramping up to 10,000 metric tons, forming a key 'mine-to-magnet' supply chain.
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See More
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- Project Advancement: Greenland Mines Ltd. is transitioning its flagship Skaergaard PGM-Gold-Critical Metals Project from technical study to active execution in 2026, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's position in the critical minerals supply chain.
- Resource Assessment: The Skaergaard Project's NI 43-101 mineral resource indicates 25.4 million ounces of palladium-equivalent and 23.5 million ounces of gold-equivalent, with an undiscounted in-situ metal value of approximately $68 billion at 2026 metal prices, highlighting the project's substantial economic potential.
- Technical Collaboration: Greenland Mines has engaged GTK Mintec under a framework agreement to conduct integrated mineralogical, metallurgical, and pilot-scale processing programs, aimed at optimizing resource development processes and enhancing the project's technical feasibility, thereby increasing market competitiveness.
- Market Outlook: With Western nations prioritizing critical mineral supply chains, Greenland Mines' Skaergaard Project is viewed as a credible alternative to reduce dependence on Russian and South African platinum, which is expected to attract increased investor interest.
See More
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- Project Advancement: Greenland Mines is transitioning its flagship Skaergaard PGM-Gold-Critical Metals Project from technical study to active execution in 2026, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's position in the critical minerals supply chain.
- Resource Estimation: The NI 43-101 mineral resource for the Skaergaard Project indicates 25.4 million ounces of palladium-equivalent and 23.5 million ounces of gold-equivalent, with an undiscounted in-situ metal value of approximately $68 billion at 2026 metal prices, showcasing the project's substantial economic potential.
- Technical Collaboration: Greenland Mines has engaged GTK Mintec under a framework agreement to conduct integrated mineralogical and metallurgical processing programs, aimed at improving resource development efficiency and optimizing production processes, thereby enhancing the project's market competitiveness.
- Market Positioning: The company's strategic positioning within the North Atlantic critical minerals corridor, combined with over $100 million in historical investment and an upcoming 2026 field campaign, underscores its commitment to becoming a reliable alternative supplier of platinum and critical metals in the West.
See More
USA Rare Earth Executive Appointed to Defense Science Board
- Executive Appointment: Gregory Bowman, Chief Global Policy Officer of USA Rare Earth, has been appointed to the newly established Science, Technology, and Innovation Board of the U.S. Department of War, which aims to address complex national security issues and enhance the technological capabilities of the American military.
- Board Background: The Science, Technology, and Innovation Board was formed in 2026 by merging the Defense Science Board and the Defense Innovation Board, with the goal of accelerating the delivery of breakthrough technologies to ensure U.S. competitiveness in the global security landscape.
- Industry Impact: Bowman's appointment not only highlights his expertise in national security policy but also signifies USA Rare Earth's critical role in the defense industrial base, potentially enhancing the company's influence in related sectors.
- Strategic Significance: Bowman emphasized that strengthening technology development and securing critical supply chains are urgent challenges facing the U.S., and this appointment may bring more policy support and business opportunities to USA Rare Earth, reinforcing its leadership in the rare earth and critical minerals sector.
See More
MP Materials Sues USA Rare Earth for Technology Theft
- Technology Theft Allegation: MP Materials has filed a lawsuit in Texas alleging that USA Rare Earth stole its proprietary technology to enhance permanent magnet performance, highlighting the fierce competition between the two companies in the rare earth supply chain.
- Failure to Meet Targets: MP claims that USA Rare Earth has repeatedly failed to achieve its commercial and performance targets, resorting to technology theft, which reflects the pressures and challenges it faces in the market.
- Employee Misappropriation Issue: MP alleges that a former employee disclosed critical technology formulas after joining USA Rare Earth, revealing the tension between talent mobility and trade secret protection within the industry.
- Cultural Dispute: USA Rare Earth responded by stating that MP's allegations misrepresent its company culture and employees, indicating the adversarial positions of both companies in terms of public image and legal battles.
See More
Mining Companies Rush for U.S. Listings to Meet Defense Demand
- Surge in Listings: At least 18 mining companies have completed or are pursuing dual U.S. listings this year, a significant increase from just three in 2025, indicating a strong demand for capital markets, particularly for defense-related critical minerals.
- Defense Demand Focus: These firms are targeting strategic minerals like antimony, rare earths, tungsten, and uranium to meet the U.S. military's annual demand of 2,000 to 3,000 metric tons of tungsten, reflecting a shift in market positioning towards defense applications.
- Government Funding Support: For instance, Guardian Metal Resources has secured $6.2 million from the Pentagon and is applying for an additional $100 million, highlighting the government's commitment to rebuilding critical mineral supply chains.
- Private Capital Response: JPMorgan has indicated it could invest up to $10 billion in sectors tied to national economic security, showcasing private capital's positive outlook on defense-driven mining investments, although market speculation remains a concern.
See More
USA Rare Earth Aims to Build Domestic Supply Chain for Rare-Earth Magnets
- Market Opportunity: USA Rare Earth is focused on establishing a domestic supply chain for rare-earth magnets, as China currently dominates 70% of global rare-earth extraction and 90% of processing, highlighting the urgent need and strategic significance for the U.S. in this sector.
- Resource Advantage: The Round Top deposit is considered one of the largest rare-earth sources in the U.S., containing 16 of the 17 rare-earth elements, with its Oklahoma magnet factory expected to produce 1,200 metric tons initially and ramping up to 10,000 metric tons, forming a key 'mine-to-magnet' supply chain.
- International Expansion: USA Rare Earth has acquired Less Common Metals in the U.K., which can convert rare-earth oxides into metals and alloys, and plans to purchase the Serra Verde mine in Brazil to access critical ingredients for permanent magnets, thereby reducing dependence on China.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite the significant market opportunity, the lack of meaningful revenue and the current multi-billion market valuation raise concerns about profitability, necessitating cautious investment in this mining stock that still has much to prove.
See More
