UBS Projects Increase in Negative Equity Residential Units in Mainland China to 3.3 Million by 2027, Resulting in RMB232 Billion in Bank Loan Losses
Property Price Decline: Mainland China's ongoing decline in property prices raises concerns about mortgage defaults and SME loans, with UBS predicting a significant increase in negative equity properties from 700,000 in 2025 to 3.3 million by 2027.
Impact on New Home Sales: The proportion of new home sales affected by negative equity is expected to rise to 28% in 2026 and 55% in 2027, leading to a projected net loss on mortgage loans increasing from RMB34 billion in 2025 to RMB232 billion in 2027.
Bank Provisions: UBS estimates that large state-owned banks will need to provision an additional 2.6% of their projected profit over the next two years due to rising negative equity, while joint-stock banks will require 1.4%.
Bank Performance Variability: Among banks, PSBC is expected to be most impacted by these changes, while HUAXIA BANK is anticipated to be least affected.
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Approval Granted for PSBC President and Director Qualifications
Approval of New Leadership: Lu Wei has been approved as President and Director of Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, effective from February 13, 2026.
Board Responsibilities: In addition to his role as President and Executive Director, Lu will also serve as Chairperson of the Social Responsibility and Consumer Rights Protection Committee, and be a member of the Strategic Planning and Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
UBS Favors ICBC, CCB, CITIC Bank, and Bank of China, Maintains Positive Outlook on Chinese Banks with Over 5% Dividend Yield
Capital Injection Plans: China is considering issuing RMB500 billion in special government bonds to bolster the capital of major banks like ICBC and ABC, with an estimated RMB300 billion allocated to these banks and RMB200 billion to large insurers.
Timeline for Implementation: The capital injection could be announced as early as the first quarter of 2026, potentially leading to earlier dividend distributions for state-owned banks.
Market Trends: Following the 2025 capital injection, banks experiencing greater dilution, such as BANKCOMM and PSBC, have shown weaker performance compared to their peers.
Investment Recommendations: UBS maintains a positive outlook on Chinese bank stocks with dividend yields over 5%, favoring institutions like ICBC, CCB, CITIC BANK, and BANK OF CHINA.
G Sachs Evaluates Ratings and Price Targets for Chinese Banks (Table)
ICBC Performance: ICBC shares decreased by 1.233%, with a short selling ratio of 16.197% and a neutral rating of 5.8.
Bank of China Update: Bank of China shares fell by 1.071%, with a short selling ratio of 12.697% and a buy rating of 4.94.
CM Bank Insights: CM Bank shares rose by 0.418%, with a significant short selling ratio of 31.262% and a buy rating of 52.96.
Market Trends: Other banks like CCB and ABC also experienced slight declines, while PSBC maintained a buy rating despite a minor drop in share price.
<Research>BOCI: ICBC Selected as Preferred Choice Among Chinese Bank H-Shares; Over RMB 50 Trillion in Deposits to be Repriced to Alleviate NIM Pressure
BOCI's Recommendations: BOCI maintains an Overweight rating on Chinese banking sector H-shares, recommending ICBC as the top pick due to its attractive valuation, along with other banks like ABC, CM BANK, CCB, PSBC, and CEB BANK.
Liability Repricing Window: The banking sector is expected to face a significant liability repricing window in 2026, which will help alleviate downward pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and support a recovery in bank profitability.
Profit Growth Outlook: Despite current NIM pressures, BOCI anticipates that the fundamentals of the banking industry will remain strong, with a slight year-on-year growth in net profit expected in 2025 and an acceleration to about 2% growth in 2026.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the recommended banks, indicating varying levels of short selling activity and ratios, reflecting market sentiment towards these stocks.
JPM Projects Increase in Chinese Banks' Share Prices This Year, Though Growth May Lag Due to Liquidity Factors; MINSHENG BANK Raised to Overweight Rating
JPMorgan's Forecast for Chinese Banks: JPMorgan predicts share price gains for Chinese banks but expects them to underperform the market in 2026, despite a projected liquidity boost from maturing time deposits.
Revenue and Profit Growth Expectations: The bank anticipates moderate improvements in revenue and profit growth for Chinese banks in 2026, driven by net interest income recovery and wealth management fees.
Stock Ratings and Recommendations: JPMorgan upgraded MINSHENG BANK's H-shares to Overweight while downgrading ABC's H-shares to Neutral, favoring high-dividend stocks like BANKCOMM and BANK OF CHINA.
Target Prices for Key Banks: The report includes updated target prices for several banks, with BANK OF CHINA and CITIC BANK rated Overweight, reflecting a positive outlook on their performance.
M Stanley Provides Valuation and Dividend Return Predictions for H-Shares of Chinese Banks This Year (Table)
Morgan Stanley's 2026 Outlook: The report provides forecasts for the price-to-book (PB), return on equity (ROE), and dividend yield of various Chinese banks' H-shares for the year 2026.
Bank Performance Metrics: Key banks such as ABC, ICBC, and CCB show varying PB ratios, ROE percentages, and dividend yields, with ICBC having the lowest PB at 0.48x and CM Bank leading in ROE at 12.6%.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for each bank, indicating significant short selling activity, particularly for PSBC and CM Bank, with ratios of 51.978% and 45.638%, respectively.
Market Reactions: The stock prices of the banks reflect mixed performance, with some banks experiencing slight increases while others show declines, highlighting the volatility in the Chinese financial sector.
Approval Granted for PSBC President and Director Qualifications
Approval of New Leadership: Lu Wei has been approved as President and Director of Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, effective from February 13, 2026.
Board Responsibilities: In addition to his role as President and Executive Director, Lu will also serve as Chairperson of the Social Responsibility and Consumer Rights Protection Committee, and be a member of the Strategic Planning and Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
UBS Favors ICBC, CCB, CITIC Bank, and Bank of China, Maintains Positive Outlook on Chinese Banks with Over 5% Dividend Yield
Capital Injection Plans: China is considering issuing RMB500 billion in special government bonds to bolster the capital of major banks like ICBC and ABC, with an estimated RMB300 billion allocated to these banks and RMB200 billion to large insurers.
Timeline for Implementation: The capital injection could be announced as early as the first quarter of 2026, potentially leading to earlier dividend distributions for state-owned banks.
Market Trends: Following the 2025 capital injection, banks experiencing greater dilution, such as BANKCOMM and PSBC, have shown weaker performance compared to their peers.
Investment Recommendations: UBS maintains a positive outlook on Chinese bank stocks with dividend yields over 5%, favoring institutions like ICBC, CCB, CITIC BANK, and BANK OF CHINA.
G Sachs Evaluates Ratings and Price Targets for Chinese Banks (Table)
ICBC Performance: ICBC shares decreased by 1.233%, with a short selling ratio of 16.197% and a neutral rating of 5.8.
Bank of China Update: Bank of China shares fell by 1.071%, with a short selling ratio of 12.697% and a buy rating of 4.94.
CM Bank Insights: CM Bank shares rose by 0.418%, with a significant short selling ratio of 31.262% and a buy rating of 52.96.
Market Trends: Other banks like CCB and ABC also experienced slight declines, while PSBC maintained a buy rating despite a minor drop in share price.
<Research>BOCI: ICBC Selected as Preferred Choice Among Chinese Bank H-Shares; Over RMB 50 Trillion in Deposits to be Repriced to Alleviate NIM Pressure
BOCI's Recommendations: BOCI maintains an Overweight rating on Chinese banking sector H-shares, recommending ICBC as the top pick due to its attractive valuation, along with other banks like ABC, CM BANK, CCB, PSBC, and CEB BANK.
Liability Repricing Window: The banking sector is expected to face a significant liability repricing window in 2026, which will help alleviate downward pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and support a recovery in bank profitability.
Profit Growth Outlook: Despite current NIM pressures, BOCI anticipates that the fundamentals of the banking industry will remain strong, with a slight year-on-year growth in net profit expected in 2025 and an acceleration to about 2% growth in 2026.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the recommended banks, indicating varying levels of short selling activity and ratios, reflecting market sentiment towards these stocks.
JPM Projects Increase in Chinese Banks' Share Prices This Year, Though Growth May Lag Due to Liquidity Factors; MINSHENG BANK Raised to Overweight Rating
JPMorgan's Forecast for Chinese Banks: JPMorgan predicts share price gains for Chinese banks but expects them to underperform the market in 2026, despite a projected liquidity boost from maturing time deposits.
Revenue and Profit Growth Expectations: The bank anticipates moderate improvements in revenue and profit growth for Chinese banks in 2026, driven by net interest income recovery and wealth management fees.
Stock Ratings and Recommendations: JPMorgan upgraded MINSHENG BANK's H-shares to Overweight while downgrading ABC's H-shares to Neutral, favoring high-dividend stocks like BANKCOMM and BANK OF CHINA.
Target Prices for Key Banks: The report includes updated target prices for several banks, with BANK OF CHINA and CITIC BANK rated Overweight, reflecting a positive outlook on their performance.
M Stanley Provides Valuation and Dividend Return Predictions for H-Shares of Chinese Banks This Year (Table)
Morgan Stanley's 2026 Outlook: The report provides forecasts for the price-to-book (PB), return on equity (ROE), and dividend yield of various Chinese banks' H-shares for the year 2026.
Bank Performance Metrics: Key banks such as ABC, ICBC, and CCB show varying PB ratios, ROE percentages, and dividend yields, with ICBC having the lowest PB at 0.48x and CM Bank leading in ROE at 12.6%.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for each bank, indicating significant short selling activity, particularly for PSBC and CM Bank, with ratios of 51.978% and 45.638%, respectively.
Market Reactions: The stock prices of the banks reflect mixed performance, with some banks experiencing slight increases while others show declines, highlighting the volatility in the Chinese financial sector.
