Treasury ETFs In Focus As Trump's Tariffs, Fed's Rate Decision Shake Bond Markets
Impact of Tariffs and Fed Policy on Treasury ETFs: Former President Trump's delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, combined with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, are creating uncertainty in the bond market, potentially affecting long-term Treasury ETFs like TLT, VGLT, and SPTL.
Market Reactions to Economic Conditions: Rising inflation expectations could lead to increased bond yields, negatively impacting Treasury ETF prices; however, if tariffs slow economic growth, investors may seek safe-haven assets, which could benefit these ETFs.
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Analyst Views on VGLT
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Market Volatility: Cracks in the credit markets and uncertainty regarding interest rates and the Federal Reserve have introduced volatility in the financial landscape.
Bonds' Appeal: Despite the volatility, bonds continue to be an attractive option for investors seeking income.
Portfolio Adjustments: Income-oriented investors are advised to make adjustments to their portfolios in preparation for the upcoming year.
Future Outlook: The current market conditions suggest a need for strategic planning and adaptability among investors.
- 52 Week Range: VGLT's stock has a 52-week low of $53.175 and a high of $59.51, with the last trade recorded at $56.22.
- Market Analysis: The article mentions other ETFs that have recently fallen below their 200-day moving average.
- Author's Perspective: The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent Nasdaq, Inc.
- Investment Insights: The information provided may be useful for investors looking to analyze VGLT's performance and market trends.
Comparison of SCHQ and VGLT: Both the Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHQ) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) offer similar exposure to long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, featuring identical expense ratios of 0.03% and comparable total returns, though VGLT has a longer track record and higher assets under management (AUM).
Yield and Investment Focus: While SCHQ provides a slightly higher yield, both funds focus on U.S. Treasury securities with maturities over 10 years, maintaining similar average maturities and durations, making them appealing options for income-focused investors.
Liquidity and Investor Considerations: VGLT's larger AUM may offer greater liquidity for investors, which could be beneficial for those who trade frequently, while SCHQ remains competitive despite being newer and smaller, appealing to those looking to diversify ETF providers.
Performance Metrics: Both ETFs have shown similar performance over the past one and five years, and investors should consider factors like expense ratios, yield, and liquidity when choosing between them, as the differences are minimal.

Comparison of VGLT and TLT: The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (VGLT) offers a broader range of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities from 10 to 25 years, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) focuses solely on bonds with maturities greater than 20 years.
Cost and Performance: VGLT has a lower expense ratio and a slightly higher yield (4.4% vs. 4.3%) compared to TLT, making it more appealing for cost-conscious investors seeking long-term efficiency.
Liquidity and Holdings: TLT has a higher assets under management (AUM) of $49.7 billion compared to VGLT's $14.3 billion, providing greater liquidity, but it holds only 46 securities compared to VGLT's 96.
Investor Considerations: VGLT is better suited for investors looking for low fees and a diverse range of long-term bonds, while TLT is ideal for those who frequently trade and prioritize liquidity.
Vanguard's High-Yield ETFs: Vanguard offers nine exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with yields over 4.84%, with the Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF having the highest yield, while the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF is considered the best overall choice due to its balance of yield, low expense ratio, and strong performance.
Investment Considerations: When selecting an ETF, investors should consider factors beyond yield, such as costs, long-term performance, and risk levels, as different funds cater to varying investor priorities regarding safety and income generation.
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Performance: The RSI for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VGLT) is at 28.3, indicating potential exhaustion of recent selling pressure, while the S&P 500's RSI is at 63.8. VGLT shares are currently trading down about 1.5% at $53.53, within a 52-week range of $53.42 to $63.41.
Investment Opportunities: Bullish investors may view the low RSI as an opportunity to buy, suggesting that now could be a favorable time to enter the market for VGLT shares.









