Sum Up The Parts: MDYG Could Be Worth $98
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 21 2024
0mins
Should l Buy NSP?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF (MDYG) has an implied analyst target price of $98.32, indicating a potential upside of 9.66% from its current trading price of $89.66.
Individual Holdings Upside: Notable underlying holdings such as Insperity Inc, Trex Co Inc, and Autoliv Inc show significant upside potential, with expected increases of approximately 24% above their recent prices based on analyst targets.
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Analyst Views on NSP
Wall Street analysts forecast NSP stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 28.750
Low
62.00
Averages
62.00
High
62.00
Current: 28.750
Low
62.00
Averages
62.00
High
62.00
About NSP
Insperity, Inc. provides an array of human resources (HR) and business solutions. The Company serves small and medium-sized businesses by providing its PEO HR solutions, which encompass a range of services. Its professional employer organization (PEO) HR solutions, offers payroll and benefits administration, general HR advice, health and workers compensation insurance programs, 401(k) retirement plan sponsored by the United States, employer liability management, assistance with government compliance and personnel records management. It also offers other business performance solutions, including talent acquisition services, retirement services, insurance services, contractor management, and perks+. Its talent acquisition services offer direct hire placement on an as-needed basis and provides outsourced support for individual requisitions or large-scale hiring projects. Its Retirement Services offer comprehensive 401(k) retirement plan recordkeeping and administrative services.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Decline: Insperity reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.31 for Q1, exceeding analyst expectations; however, the company's lowered full-year guidance led to a 16.5% drop in stock price during the morning session.
- Uncertain Outlook: The company forecasts adjusted earnings for Q2 between $0.02 and $0.50 per share, significantly below the analyst consensus of $0.47, indicating uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Rising Costs: Insperity attributed a 70% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings per share to increased pharmacy expenses and a higher frequency of large insurance claims, which also caused gross profit to fall by 14% compared to the same quarter last year.
- Stock Performance: Insperity's stock has declined 21.6% since the beginning of the year, trading at $30.27 per share, which is 57.8% below its 52-week high of $71.75, reflecting the market's pessimistic outlook on the company's future prospects.
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- Revenue Meets Expectations: Insperity reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.90 billion, reflecting a 1.7% year-over-year growth that aligns with Wall Street forecasts, indicating stability in the company's market position.
- Earnings Beat Estimates: The non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.31 exceeded analyst expectations of $1.23 by 6.2%, showcasing improvements in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Adjusted Full-Year Guidance: Management lowered the full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.10, a 4.8% decrease from previous estimates, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth amid weak sentiment among small business clients.
- New Product Growth Drivers: Insperity is launching HRScale and AI-driven services, which, despite short-term client growth pressures, are expected to restore growth momentum in the mid-market segment over the medium term.
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- Financial Performance Overview: Insperity reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.31 and adjusted EBITDA of $103 million, while the average number of paid worksite employees was 303,049, at the low end of the forecast range, indicating overall business growth challenges.
- Margin Recovery Progress: Although total gross profit decreased by 3% to $302 million, the benefit cost per employee improved from a 9% increase last year to 5%, demonstrating the company's effectiveness in cost control measures.
- Contract Change Impact: The change in the UnitedHealthcare contract is expected to improve quarterly profitability patterns by lowering the cost cap per member to $500,000, which will help smooth future earnings fluctuations and enhance financial stability.
- Future Outlook Adjustment: While the full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast remains at $170 million to $230 million, the expected range for worksite employees has been lowered to 303,000 to 307,000, reflecting management's cautious stance on small business economic sentiment.
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- Earnings Beat: Insperity reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $1.31, exceeding expectations by $0.08, which reflects the company's resilience amid economic uncertainties and boosts investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved $2.08 billion in revenue for Q1, marking a 2.5% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by $190 million, indicating the effectiveness of its business model in the current economic climate.
- 2026 Guidance Update: Insperity updated its financial guidance for 2026, projecting adjusted EPS for Q2 to range between $0.02 and $0.50, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for future growth.
- EBITDA Expectations: The adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is expected to be between $170 million and $230 million, despite a 44% year-over-year decrease, showcasing the company's potential in cost control and profitability.
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- Earnings Announcement: Insperity (NSP) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on April 30 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.23, reflecting a 21.7% year-over-year decline, while revenue is projected at $1.89 billion, indicating a 1.6% year-over-year increase.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Insperity has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates only 25% of the time, highlighting volatility in the company's earnings performance.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with four downward adjustments, and similarly, revenue estimates have seen no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, indicating a decline in market confidence regarding future performance.
- Market Sentiment: Although Insperity's shares are considered cheap, economic concerns have prevented analysts from upgrading their ratings, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's growth prospects.
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- Earnings Call Rescheduling: Insperity has announced that its first quarter earnings conference call will now take place at 5:00 p.m. ET instead of the previously scheduled 8:30 a.m. ET, ensuring smoother communication with investors.
- Financial Performance Overview: Insperity reported revenues of $6.8 billion in 2025, showcasing its strong business performance in the U.S. market and further solidifying its leadership position in the HR solutions sector.
- Wide Service Range: Since 1986, Insperity has provided comprehensive and scalable HR solutions, helping thousands of businesses and communities succeed, reflecting its strong commitment to customer service and support.
- Integration of Technology and Service: By combining premium HR services with technology, Insperity delivers administrative relief, reduced liabilities, and better benefit solutions, driving performance and growth for businesses.
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