Significant Increase in Tax Refunds This Season
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy IRS?
Source: CNBC
- Increase in Refund Amounts: As of March 27, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,521, up 10.9% from $3,170 a year ago, indicating a direct impact of tax policy changes on taxpayers.
- Surge in Filings: The IRS has received approximately 88.4 million individual returns so far, with expectations to reach 164 million by the April 15 deadline, reflecting a significant increase in taxpayer engagement with the refund process.
- Impact of Trump Policies: Nearly 50% of tax returns filed in 2026 included one of Trump's signature policies—deductions for overtime income and auto loan interest, claimed on about 20 million filings, showcasing a positive financial impact for many taxpayers.
- Economic Context: Despite the increase in refund amounts, many taxpayers still face economic pressures, and the changes in refunds may become a key issue for Republicans as the midterm elections approach.
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Analyst Views on IRS
About IRS
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones SA is an Argentina-based company primarily engaged in the real estate sector. The Company’s scope of activities is operated through five business segments: Shopping Malls, which primarily focuses on service and lease of controlled shopping malls; Offices, which is associated with office-leasing services; Hotels, through which the operation of Company-owned hotels, which encompass room, catering, as well as restaurant facilities, is conducted; Sales and Developments, which relies on various activities in regards to rental properties as well as development, maintenance, and sales of both undeveloped parcels as well as trading properties; Others, which is connected with providing a range of entertainment activities coordinated through the companies that are associated with the Company, which include La Arena SA, La Rural SA, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Real Estate ETF Shows Steady Performance Amid Rising Rates
- Market Performance: In Q1 2026, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLRE) gained approximately 1.11%, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell about 4.81%, indicating that REIT stocks remained relatively strong during broader market struggles.
- Price Movement: Over the past three months, XLRE's price increased from $40.44 to $42.44, reflecting a gain of around 4.95%, which suggests that investors are still confident in holding real estate assets despite overall market performance.
- Interest Rate Impact: Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.30%, as higher rates typically increase borrowing costs, potentially affecting real estate demand and valuations, which could negatively impact market liquidity.
- REIT Valuation: According to the Nareit report, private real estate valuations are adjusting slowly, making it challenging to ascertain the true value of assets; however, if the valuation gap narrows, REITs could see improved performance.
See More
Significant Increase in Tax Refunds This Season
- Increase in Refund Amounts: As of March 27, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,521, up 10.9% from $3,170 a year ago, indicating a direct impact of tax policy changes on taxpayers.
- Surge in Filings: The IRS has received approximately 88.4 million individual returns so far, with expectations to reach 164 million by the April 15 deadline, reflecting a significant increase in taxpayer engagement with the refund process.
- Impact of Trump Policies: Nearly 50% of tax returns filed in 2026 included one of Trump's signature policies—deductions for overtime income and auto loan interest, claimed on about 20 million filings, showcasing a positive financial impact for many taxpayers.
- Economic Context: Despite the increase in refund amounts, many taxpayers still face economic pressures, and the changes in refunds may become a key issue for Republicans as the midterm elections approach.
See More
Average Tax Refund Increases by 10.6% This Season
- Increased Refund Amounts: As of March 6, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,676, marking a 10.6% increase from $3,324 a year ago, indicating that changes in tax policy are providing greater economic benefits to taxpayers.
- Surge in Filings: The IRS has received approximately 60.7 million individual tax returns so far, with expectations to reach 164 million by the April 15 deadline, reflecting a heightened engagement and response from taxpayers to the new tax laws.
- Impact of New Tax Laws: Under the Trump administration's tax reforms, over 27.5 million returns claimed new tax breaks, including deductions for overtime pay, tip income, and auto loan interest, which are expected to result in significantly higher refunds for qualifying taxpayers.
- Standard vs. SALT Deductions: In 2022, nearly 90% of returns utilized the standard deduction, while about 15 million claimed the SALT deduction; this trend is anticipated to rise in 2025, potentially allowing more taxpayers to benefit from larger refund amounts.
See More
Average Tax Refund Increases by 10.6% This Season
- Increased Refund Amount: As of February 27, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,742, reflecting a 10.6% increase from last year's $3,382, indicating that tax policy adjustments are providing greater economic benefits to taxpayers.
- Filing Data Overview: The IRS has received approximately 51.5 million individual returns so far, with an expected total of about 164 million by the April 15 deadline, demonstrating a positive response from taxpayers to the new tax laws.
- Impact of New Tax Laws: The Trump administration's tax breaks, including deductions for tip and overtime income, have led to 43% of returns utilizing Schedule 1-A, resulting in these filers receiving an average refund that is $775 larger than last year, showcasing the direct economic impact of the policy changes.
- Complexity of Policy Changes: Despite the increase in refund amounts, experts note that actual refunds or balances due are still influenced by workers' paycheck withholdings and other payments throughout the year, with many taxpayers experiencing only hundreds of dollars in differences rather than the thousands initially anticipated.
See More
Trump's New Tax Deduction Policy Raises Filing Risks
- Tax Deduction Policy: Trump's new 'no tax on overtime' deduction allows single filers to deduct up to $12,500 annually, attracting millions of taxpayers, but experts warn of potential filing errors.
- Filing Statistics: As of March 4, the IRS received nearly 56 million returns, with 43% including the new Schedule 1-A, indicating that the overtime deduction is the largest filing category for this form, reflecting the policy's widespread impact.
- Compliance Risks: Although approximately 98 million workers were eligible for overtime in 2023, only 8% of hourly workers and 4% of salaried workers regularly qualify under FLSA, leading many to be unclear on how to accurately claim deductions during tax filing.
- Disclosure Gaps: With the Treasury and IRS waiving employer reporting requirements for 2025, some workers may not see overtime reflected on W-2 or 1099 forms, increasing complexity and risk of errors in tax filings.
See More
Updated Quant Ratings for Small-Cap Real Estate Firms
- Top Rated Companies: IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima (IRS) leads with a quant rating of 4.96, indicating strong performance in valuation, growth, and profitability, which is likely to attract investor interest.
- Strong Buy Ratings: Postal Realty Trust (PSTL) and NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) received quant ratings of 4.93 and 4.90 respectively, suggesting significant strengthening of their fundamentals post-earnings, potentially driving their stock prices higher.
- Lowest Rated Companies: Service Properties Trust (SVC) has the lowest quant rating at 1.30, highlighting severe deficiencies in profitability and growth, which may lead to declining investor confidence.
- Strong Sell Ratings: NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) and Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) received quant ratings of 1.22 and 1.19, reflecting their lack of competitiveness in the market and posing greater investment risks.
See More
Real Estate ETF Shows Steady Performance Amid Rising Rates
- Market Performance: In Q1 2026, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLRE) gained approximately 1.11%, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell about 4.81%, indicating that REIT stocks remained relatively strong during broader market struggles.
- Price Movement: Over the past three months, XLRE's price increased from $40.44 to $42.44, reflecting a gain of around 4.95%, which suggests that investors are still confident in holding real estate assets despite overall market performance.
- Interest Rate Impact: Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.30%, as higher rates typically increase borrowing costs, potentially affecting real estate demand and valuations, which could negatively impact market liquidity.
- REIT Valuation: According to the Nareit report, private real estate valuations are adjusting slowly, making it challenging to ascertain the true value of assets; however, if the valuation gap narrows, REITs could see improved performance.
See More
Significant Increase in Tax Refunds This Season
- Increase in Refund Amounts: As of March 27, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,521, up 10.9% from $3,170 a year ago, indicating a direct impact of tax policy changes on taxpayers.
- Surge in Filings: The IRS has received approximately 88.4 million individual returns so far, with expectations to reach 164 million by the April 15 deadline, reflecting a significant increase in taxpayer engagement with the refund process.
- Impact of Trump Policies: Nearly 50% of tax returns filed in 2026 included one of Trump's signature policies—deductions for overtime income and auto loan interest, claimed on about 20 million filings, showcasing a positive financial impact for many taxpayers.
- Economic Context: Despite the increase in refund amounts, many taxpayers still face economic pressures, and the changes in refunds may become a key issue for Republicans as the midterm elections approach.
See More
Average Tax Refund Increases by 10.6% This Season
- Increased Refund Amounts: As of March 6, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,676, marking a 10.6% increase from $3,324 a year ago, indicating that changes in tax policy are providing greater economic benefits to taxpayers.
- Surge in Filings: The IRS has received approximately 60.7 million individual tax returns so far, with expectations to reach 164 million by the April 15 deadline, reflecting a heightened engagement and response from taxpayers to the new tax laws.
- Impact of New Tax Laws: Under the Trump administration's tax reforms, over 27.5 million returns claimed new tax breaks, including deductions for overtime pay, tip income, and auto loan interest, which are expected to result in significantly higher refunds for qualifying taxpayers.
- Standard vs. SALT Deductions: In 2022, nearly 90% of returns utilized the standard deduction, while about 15 million claimed the SALT deduction; this trend is anticipated to rise in 2025, potentially allowing more taxpayers to benefit from larger refund amounts.
See More
Average Tax Refund Increases by 10.6% This Season
- Increased Refund Amount: As of February 27, the average tax refund for individual filers reached $3,742, reflecting a 10.6% increase from last year's $3,382, indicating that tax policy adjustments are providing greater economic benefits to taxpayers.
- Filing Data Overview: The IRS has received approximately 51.5 million individual returns so far, with an expected total of about 164 million by the April 15 deadline, demonstrating a positive response from taxpayers to the new tax laws.
- Impact of New Tax Laws: The Trump administration's tax breaks, including deductions for tip and overtime income, have led to 43% of returns utilizing Schedule 1-A, resulting in these filers receiving an average refund that is $775 larger than last year, showcasing the direct economic impact of the policy changes.
- Complexity of Policy Changes: Despite the increase in refund amounts, experts note that actual refunds or balances due are still influenced by workers' paycheck withholdings and other payments throughout the year, with many taxpayers experiencing only hundreds of dollars in differences rather than the thousands initially anticipated.
See More
Trump's New Tax Deduction Policy Raises Filing Risks
- Tax Deduction Policy: Trump's new 'no tax on overtime' deduction allows single filers to deduct up to $12,500 annually, attracting millions of taxpayers, but experts warn of potential filing errors.
- Filing Statistics: As of March 4, the IRS received nearly 56 million returns, with 43% including the new Schedule 1-A, indicating that the overtime deduction is the largest filing category for this form, reflecting the policy's widespread impact.
- Compliance Risks: Although approximately 98 million workers were eligible for overtime in 2023, only 8% of hourly workers and 4% of salaried workers regularly qualify under FLSA, leading many to be unclear on how to accurately claim deductions during tax filing.
- Disclosure Gaps: With the Treasury and IRS waiving employer reporting requirements for 2025, some workers may not see overtime reflected on W-2 or 1099 forms, increasing complexity and risk of errors in tax filings.
See More
Updated Quant Ratings for Small-Cap Real Estate Firms
- Top Rated Companies: IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima (IRS) leads with a quant rating of 4.96, indicating strong performance in valuation, growth, and profitability, which is likely to attract investor interest.
- Strong Buy Ratings: Postal Realty Trust (PSTL) and NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) received quant ratings of 4.93 and 4.90 respectively, suggesting significant strengthening of their fundamentals post-earnings, potentially driving their stock prices higher.
- Lowest Rated Companies: Service Properties Trust (SVC) has the lowest quant rating at 1.30, highlighting severe deficiencies in profitability and growth, which may lead to declining investor confidence.
- Strong Sell Ratings: NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) and Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) received quant ratings of 1.22 and 1.19, reflecting their lack of competitiveness in the market and posing greater investment risks.
See More
