<Research>G Sachs Adds TPs for MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)/ GUMING (01364.HK), Keeps Ratings at Buy
Intensified Competition: The food delivery platform sector has seen increased competition since June 2025, with MEITUAN-W and Ele.me investing aggressively in subsidies, while JD-SW also participates, leading to a longer investment duration in 'daily applications' compared to previous quarters.
Market Impact and Forecasts: Analysts predict that companies like MIXUE GROUP and GUMING may face short-term challenges due to delivery platform strategies, but Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about their long-term prospects, raising profit forecasts for both companies based on expected benefits from food delivery subsidies.
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CICC Report: Surge in Leisure Travel Demand; Favorable Outlook for Luckin Coffee, Atour Lifestyle, CTG DUTY-FREE, and More
Spring Festival Travel Rush: The first week of the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush saw significant growth in passenger flows, with strong flight and hotel bookings, indicating a positive outlook for leisure travel demand during the holiday period.
Market Optimism: CICC expressed optimism regarding the recovery of the social services sector, anticipating that leading enterprises will experience price rebounds or restoration of same-store sales due to a stabilizing competitive landscape.
Investment Recommendations: BofAS highlighted that YUM CHINA's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, leading to slightly raised EPS forecasts, and recommended several companies including Luckin Coffee and Atour Lifestyle Holdings for investors.
Short Selling Data: The report included short selling data for various companies, indicating varying levels of short interest, with notable figures for YUM CHINA and HAIDILAO among others.
HSI Rises Over 600 Points; Tea Beverage Stocks Remain Weak; MIXUE Declines by 10%
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse experienced a rally on the 28th, with the HSI reaching a 4.5-year high of 27,757, up 630 points or 2.3%, and a turnover of HK$176.495 million.
MIXUE GROUP Stock Decline: MIXUE GROUP's stock opened 2.5% lower and fell to HK$396, down 10.6%, following a downgrade by UBS, which cited potential short-term pressures and reduced profit forecasts.
Pressure on Tea Beverage Stocks: Several tea beverage stocks, including CHABAIDAO and GUMING, faced declines of 2-3%, diverging from the overall market trend.
Short Selling Activity: The short selling ratios for various stocks, including MIXUE GROUP and others in the tea beverage sector, indicate increased market skepticism, with significant short selling reported.
<Research>SPDBI Identifies Certain H Shares with Increased Market Capitalization at Lock-up Period's Conclusion in the Coming Year (Table)
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with ZIJIN GOLD INTL and MINIMAX-WP experiencing significant gains, while others like GUMING and CHERY AUTO faced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with FWD showing a high short selling ratio of 16.999%, while NANSHAN AL INTL had a notably low ratio of 0.135%.
Market Capitalization Insights: The market capitalization at the end of the lock-up periods for these stocks ranges from 21.4 billion to 406.6 billion, indicating varying levels of investor interest and company valuations.
Future Lock-up Dates: Key lock-up expiration dates for these stocks are set between early 2026 and late 2026, which may impact trading strategies and stock performance as these dates approach.
JPM's Leading Selections for Year of the Horse Among Chinese Consumers: Laopu, Gu Ming, Miniso, Yum China, and Pop Mart
Investment Themes for China's Consumer Sector: Key themes for 2026 include lukewarm end-demand with potential policy stimulus, accelerated industry consolidation due to price deflation, a focus on design and social value among younger consumers, overseas expansion to counter domestic growth weaknesses, and challenges/opportunities from an aging population.
Top Buy Picks by JPMorgan: Recommended stocks include LAOPU GOLD for its gold price and expansion potential, Luckin Coffee for market share and digitization, GUMING for regional diversification, MNSO for strong products and store expansion, Yum China for robust performance, and POP MART for its growth potential and valuation.
Stocks to Avoid: JPMorgan advises against investing in BUD APAC and YANGHE due to their poor performance and high short-selling ratios.
Market Insights: The report highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, including short-selling data and stock performance, to make informed investment decisions in the evolving consumer landscape.
Daiwa Lowers MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK) Rating to Hold and Reduces Price Target to $427
Downgrade and Valuation Changes: Daiwa downgraded MIXUE GROUP from Outperform to Hold, reducing its target price from $535 to $427 and lowering the projected 2026 PE ratio from 28x to 22x due to concerns over future earnings growth and the validation of its overseas market expansion.
Sales Growth and Market Expectations: Despite a resilient same-store sales growth post-subsidy wave, Daiwa believes the market may have overly high expectations for MIXUE GROUP's second growth engine, which is yet to be proven.
Market Positioning and Innovation Limitations: Daiwa noted that MIXUE GROUP's mass market positioning restricts its product innovation and pricing flexibility compared to mid-tier competitors like GUMING and Luckin Coffee.
Business Model Comparison: The report likened MIXUE GROUP's business model and long-term advantages to TINGYI, highlighting its strong franchisee network and supply chain benefits, particularly in lower-tier cities.
G Sachs Maintains Buy Rating on GUMING and MIXUE GROUP; Anticipates Decline in Same-Store Sales Next Year
Expert Meeting on Beverage Market: A recent expert meeting highlighted expectations that subsidies in China's fresh beverage market will phase out over time, with niche brands potentially achieving profitability within 6-8 months.
Food Delivery Losses Forecast: Goldman Sachs predicts that losses for food delivery companies like Alibaba and Meituan will decrease by the end of December 2026, despite a reduction in subsidies impacting same-store sales.
Sales Projections for GUMING and MIXUE: The report forecasts a decline in same-store sales for GUMING and MIXUE Group by 6% and 4% respectively in 2026, while both companies are expected to open thousands of new stores in untapped markets.
Investment Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating for both GUMING and MIXUE Group, setting target prices of HKD32 and HKD579 respectively for the next 12 months.
CICC Report: Surge in Leisure Travel Demand; Favorable Outlook for Luckin Coffee, Atour Lifestyle, CTG DUTY-FREE, and More
Spring Festival Travel Rush: The first week of the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush saw significant growth in passenger flows, with strong flight and hotel bookings, indicating a positive outlook for leisure travel demand during the holiday period.
Market Optimism: CICC expressed optimism regarding the recovery of the social services sector, anticipating that leading enterprises will experience price rebounds or restoration of same-store sales due to a stabilizing competitive landscape.
Investment Recommendations: BofAS highlighted that YUM CHINA's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, leading to slightly raised EPS forecasts, and recommended several companies including Luckin Coffee and Atour Lifestyle Holdings for investors.
Short Selling Data: The report included short selling data for various companies, indicating varying levels of short interest, with notable figures for YUM CHINA and HAIDILAO among others.
HSI Rises Over 600 Points; Tea Beverage Stocks Remain Weak; MIXUE Declines by 10%
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse experienced a rally on the 28th, with the HSI reaching a 4.5-year high of 27,757, up 630 points or 2.3%, and a turnover of HK$176.495 million.
MIXUE GROUP Stock Decline: MIXUE GROUP's stock opened 2.5% lower and fell to HK$396, down 10.6%, following a downgrade by UBS, which cited potential short-term pressures and reduced profit forecasts.
Pressure on Tea Beverage Stocks: Several tea beverage stocks, including CHABAIDAO and GUMING, faced declines of 2-3%, diverging from the overall market trend.
Short Selling Activity: The short selling ratios for various stocks, including MIXUE GROUP and others in the tea beverage sector, indicate increased market skepticism, with significant short selling reported.
<Research>SPDBI Identifies Certain H Shares with Increased Market Capitalization at Lock-up Period's Conclusion in the Coming Year (Table)
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with ZIJIN GOLD INTL and MINIMAX-WP experiencing significant gains, while others like GUMING and CHERY AUTO faced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with FWD showing a high short selling ratio of 16.999%, while NANSHAN AL INTL had a notably low ratio of 0.135%.
Market Capitalization Insights: The market capitalization at the end of the lock-up periods for these stocks ranges from 21.4 billion to 406.6 billion, indicating varying levels of investor interest and company valuations.
Future Lock-up Dates: Key lock-up expiration dates for these stocks are set between early 2026 and late 2026, which may impact trading strategies and stock performance as these dates approach.
JPM's Leading Selections for Year of the Horse Among Chinese Consumers: Laopu, Gu Ming, Miniso, Yum China, and Pop Mart
Investment Themes for China's Consumer Sector: Key themes for 2026 include lukewarm end-demand with potential policy stimulus, accelerated industry consolidation due to price deflation, a focus on design and social value among younger consumers, overseas expansion to counter domestic growth weaknesses, and challenges/opportunities from an aging population.
Top Buy Picks by JPMorgan: Recommended stocks include LAOPU GOLD for its gold price and expansion potential, Luckin Coffee for market share and digitization, GUMING for regional diversification, MNSO for strong products and store expansion, Yum China for robust performance, and POP MART for its growth potential and valuation.
Stocks to Avoid: JPMorgan advises against investing in BUD APAC and YANGHE due to their poor performance and high short-selling ratios.
Market Insights: The report highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, including short-selling data and stock performance, to make informed investment decisions in the evolving consumer landscape.
Daiwa Lowers MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK) Rating to Hold and Reduces Price Target to $427
Downgrade and Valuation Changes: Daiwa downgraded MIXUE GROUP from Outperform to Hold, reducing its target price from $535 to $427 and lowering the projected 2026 PE ratio from 28x to 22x due to concerns over future earnings growth and the validation of its overseas market expansion.
Sales Growth and Market Expectations: Despite a resilient same-store sales growth post-subsidy wave, Daiwa believes the market may have overly high expectations for MIXUE GROUP's second growth engine, which is yet to be proven.
Market Positioning and Innovation Limitations: Daiwa noted that MIXUE GROUP's mass market positioning restricts its product innovation and pricing flexibility compared to mid-tier competitors like GUMING and Luckin Coffee.
Business Model Comparison: The report likened MIXUE GROUP's business model and long-term advantages to TINGYI, highlighting its strong franchisee network and supply chain benefits, particularly in lower-tier cities.
G Sachs Maintains Buy Rating on GUMING and MIXUE GROUP; Anticipates Decline in Same-Store Sales Next Year
Expert Meeting on Beverage Market: A recent expert meeting highlighted expectations that subsidies in China's fresh beverage market will phase out over time, with niche brands potentially achieving profitability within 6-8 months.
Food Delivery Losses Forecast: Goldman Sachs predicts that losses for food delivery companies like Alibaba and Meituan will decrease by the end of December 2026, despite a reduction in subsidies impacting same-store sales.
Sales Projections for GUMING and MIXUE: The report forecasts a decline in same-store sales for GUMING and MIXUE Group by 6% and 4% respectively in 2026, while both companies are expected to open thousands of new stores in untapped markets.
Investment Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating for both GUMING and MIXUE Group, setting target prices of HKD32 and HKD579 respectively for the next 12 months.
