<Research>CLSA: SANDS CHINA LTD Reports Lower Than Expected EBITDA for Q4 2025
Financial Performance: SANDS CHINA LTD reported a 6% year-over-year growth in EBITDA for 4Q25, totaling USD608 million, although this was below market expectations by 3% and CLSA's estimates by 10%.
Market Outlook: The company anticipates stabilization in promotional intensity and aims to continue expanding its EBITDA scale, with CLSA assigning an Outperform rating and a target price of HKD22.9.
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Hong Kong Stock Performance: On February 16, Hong Kong stocks saw a positive half-day session, with the HSI closing up 138 points (0.5%) at 26,705, marking a strong overall performance in the Year of the Snake with a 32% gain.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: The quarterly review of the HSI included the addition of CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD, which saw significant gains, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed from the index.
Individual Stock Movements: Notable stock movements included SANDS CHINA LTD rising 2.7% despite a slight decline in property EBITDA, while ANTA SPORTS experienced a minor drop after shareholder approval for a significant acquisition.
US Department of War Update: The US Department of War's withdrawal of the "List of Chinese Military Companies" impacted stock prices, with BABA-W declining 0.5% and BIDU-SW increasing by 1.3%.

Dividend Announcement: SANDS CHINA LTD declared a final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.5 for FY2025, consistent with expectations, following an interim DPS of $0.25.
Future Dividend Outlook: The final dividend suggests a potential FY2026 DPS of at least $1, contingent on improved operating cash flow, which could lead to increased dividends.
Implied Dividend Yield: UBS estimates the implied dividend yield for FY2026 at approximately 5.4%, which is considered attractive and may support the stock price.
Market Reaction: The stock price is anticipated to respond positively to the dividend announcement and the outlook provided by UBS.

US Inflation and Stock Market Update: US inflation was below expectations while core inflation met them; the DJIA rose by 0.1% last Friday.
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse opened lower, with the HSI down 0.2% and other indices also showing declines.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD were added to the HSI, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed; CATL and CMOC saw slight increases in their stock prices.
Notable Stock Movements: Stocks like BABA-W and BIDU-SW dropped significantly after being listed as Chinese military companies, while ANTA SPORTS received approval for a stake acquisition in PUMA.
Leadership Change: Robert Glen Goldstein has stepped down as Chairman and Non-Executive Director of SANDS CHINA LTD effective March 1.
New Appointment: Patrick Sydney Dumont has been appointed as the new Chairman of the Board and Chairman of the Nomination Committee, also effective March 1.
Stock Performance: The stock of SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) saw a slight increase of 1.081%, with a short selling amount of $81.80 million.
Market Data: The HK stocks quote is delayed by at least 15 minutes, with short selling data reported as of February 13, 2026.

Collaboration Announcement: SANDS CHINA LTD is enhancing its partnership with Alipay and Macau Pass to launch a special Lunar New Year campaign for the Year of the Horse.
Interactive Technology Integration: The campaign utilizes Alipay's "Alipay Tap!" technology to create engaging check-in interactions, aiming to attract more visitors to Macau and provide a seamless smart spending experience.
Coverage of Integrated Resorts: The "Alipay Tap!" spending model is fully implemented across SANDS CHINA LTD's integrated resorts, which include various sectors such as retail, dining, beauty, fashion, and souvenirs.
Market Activity: As of the latest data, SANDS CHINA LTD's stock is experiencing short selling activity amounting to $33.34 million, with a short selling ratio of 27.915%.

4Q25 Performance: Sands China Ltd reported weaker-than-expected results for 4Q25, with a margin decline attributed to business mix, poor mass-hold, and rising operational expenses, leading JPMorgan to adjust its EBITDA forecast down by about 3%.
Stock Price Reaction: Despite Sands' stock price dropping 10% over the past month, JPMorgan views this reaction as excessive, citing seasonal factors and non-recurring issues as the main reasons for the weak performance.
Future Outlook: Haitong International maintains an "Outperform" rating on Sands China, expecting market share growth and a doubling of the annual dividend per share (DPS) to HKD1, which would yield 5.4% at current prices.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan has rated Sands China Ltd as "Overweight," lowering the target price from HKD23 to HKD22, while projecting progressive dividend growth to over HKD1.5 by 2028.





