PagSeguro and Others Show Weak EPS Revisions Ahead of Earnings Season
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GBDC?
Source: seekingalpha
- EPS Revision Ratings: Mid-cap financial stocks like PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) and Inter & Co, Inc. (INTR) have received a D+ EPS revision grade, indicating weakened momentum in analyst earnings expectations, which may affect investor confidence.
- Quant Rating Performance: PagSeguro's quant rating stands at 3.23, Inter's at 3.18, and Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) at 3.03, all below the bullish threshold of 3.5, suggesting these companies face challenges in earnings growth.
- Market Reaction Expectations: As the earnings season approaches, analysts' downward revisions of earnings expectations for these companies may lead to increased stock price volatility, prompting investors to assess risks carefully.
- Industry-Wide Trends: Overall, the soft EPS revisions in the financial sector may reflect signs of economic slowdown, and investors should monitor policy risks and market volatility's impact on future performance.
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Analyst Views on GBDC
Wall Street analysts forecast GBDC stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.630
Low
14.00
Averages
15.00
High
16.00
Current: 13.630
Low
14.00
Averages
15.00
High
16.00
About GBDC
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The Company's investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation by investing primarily in one stop and other senior secured loans of United States middle-market companies. It also selectively invests in second lien and subordinated (a loan that ranks senior only to a borrower’s equity securities and ranks junior to all of such borrower’s other indebtedness in priority of payment) loans of, and warrants and minority equity securities in, United States middle-market companies. It also invests in various sectors, which include software, healthcare providers and services, specialty retail, automobiles, diversified consumer services, insurance, healthcare technology, information technology (IT) services, commercial services and supplies, and others. The Company’s investment activities are managed by its investment adviser, GC Advisors LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
RBC Capital Markets Upgrades Golub Capital BDC to Outperform
- Coverage Initiation: RBC Capital Markets has initiated coverage of Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) with an Outperform rating and a $15 price target, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
- Stock Performance: During Friday's pre-market trading, GBDC shares rose by 0.75% to $13.39, reflecting a positive market reaction to the new rating.
- Investor Focus: Analyst Kenneth Lee highlighted that given investor focus on credit, GBDC's long-term track record of better loss experience compared to peers and its strong credit underwriting reputation provide a relatively differentiated portfolio in the core middle-market segment.
- Return Expectations: RBC's estimates imply a total return of approximately 22% over the next year, partly driven by dividend yield, suggesting the company's attractiveness in the current market environment.
See More
Latest Ratings and Outlook from Wall Street
- Apple Maintained as Buy: Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on Apple (AAPL), labeling it as the “highest quality name,” and despite underperformance year-to-date, it is still viewed as a high-quality compounder supported by resilient services growth and a healthy product cycle.
- Semiconductor Sector Pressure: Mizuho downgraded NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) to sell, citing its significant exposure to the auto sector as a headwind, with the 2026 auto outlook softened by geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.
- Netflix's Solid Performance: Bank of America reaffirmed its buy rating on Netflix following a solid first quarter that modestly beat forecasts, with management reiterating three core priorities that align with their ongoing strategic focus and competitive positioning in the market.
- Petrobras Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Petrobras (PBR) from neutral to buy, highlighting its robust cash flow generation and low double-digit dividend yield, which reduces the risk of a potential revision to its dividend policy in a high oil price environment.
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Blue Owl Caps Redemptions at 5% Amid High Requests
- Surge in Redemption Requests: Blue Owl's flagship OCIC fund faced redemption requests of approximately 21.9% during Q1, involving around $36 billion in assets, indicating heightened market concerns regarding AI-related disruptions to software companies, leading to increased liquidity pressure.
- Technology Fund Redemption Dynamics: The OTIC technology-focused fund experienced redemption requests as high as 40.7% in the same period, reflecting a concentrated shareholder base, particularly within certain wealth channels and regions, which exacerbated the redemption pressure.
- Redemption Cap Implementation: In response to the surge in redemption requests, Blue Owl opted to cap redemptions at 5% for both funds, a measure aimed at preserving liquidity and stabilizing investor confidence, while also demonstrating the company's ability to navigate market volatility.
- Market Reaction and Outlook: Despite implementing redemption caps, Blue Owl's shares fell approximately 9% in premarket trading on Thursday, indicating market concerns over its liquidity management, which may impact its competitive position in the private credit market moving forward.
See More
Concerns Over Private Credit Market Risks Emerge
- Market Growth: According to Barclays, the private credit market ballooned to $1.8 trillion in the first half of 2025, up from approximately $250 billion during the financial crisis, indicating strong demand for financing among mid-sized businesses.
- High-Risk Alerts: The bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor prompted JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to warn of potential systemic issues in private credit, highlighting vulnerabilities within the sector.
- Investor Structure Shift: Unlike the depositors during the 2008 crisis, the current investor base for private credit consists mainly of institutional investors such as pensions and sovereign wealth funds, which are more capable of locking up capital for extended periods, thereby reducing systemic risk.
- Normalizing Credit Conditions: While the private credit market faces increased stress, the majority of investments are in investment-grade loans, with only a small portion in high-yield loans, suggesting that the overall stability of the market remains relatively strong.
See More
Private Credit Markets Face Liquidity Test Amid Rising Defaults
- Liquidity Pressure Intensifies: Ares Management has capped investor redemptions in its $10.7 billion private credit fund at 5% after withdrawal requests surged to 11.6%, reflecting growing concerns over credit quality that could further undermine investor confidence in the sector.
- Default Rate Warning: Morgan Stanley warns that default rates in private credit direct lending could spike to 8%, significantly above the historical average of 2-2.5%, which would have a major impact on sectors heavily reliant on high leverage, particularly in software.
- Market Reset Signal: While rising default rates may cause pain for some funds, industry experts believe this could lead to better underwriting practices and more realistic valuations, ultimately freeing up capital for stronger businesses and promoting a healthy reset in the market.
- Concentrated Risk Areas: The software sector accounts for approximately 26% of direct lending, and as fears of AI disruption grow, attention has shifted to this area, with some smaller issuers experiencing default rates as high as 10.9%, highlighting the vulnerability of highly leveraged borrowers.
See More
KKR's Fund Downgraded to Junk by Moody's Amid Rising Bad Loans
- Credit Rating Downgrade: Moody's downgraded FS KKR Capital Corp's debt rating from Baa3 to Ba1, indicating a shift to junk status, which reflects worsening asset quality and declining profitability, leading to erosion of net asset value relative to peers.
- Rising Bad Loans: By the end of 2025, the fund's non-accrual loans rose to 5.5%, one of the highest rates among rated business development companies, indicating increasing asset quality challenges that could impact future investment returns.
- Investor Withdrawal Surge: Amid concerns over impending credit losses, retail investors are rushing to withdraw funds, creating liquidity pressures for the fund that may further increase borrowing costs and affect future returns.
- Poor Financial Performance: FS KKR reported a net loss of $114 million in Q4 2025, with only $11 million in net income for the entire year, highlighting a significant decline in profitability that could undermine its competitive position in the market.
See More
RBC Capital Markets Upgrades Golub Capital BDC to Outperform
- Coverage Initiation: RBC Capital Markets has initiated coverage of Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) with an Outperform rating and a $15 price target, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
- Stock Performance: During Friday's pre-market trading, GBDC shares rose by 0.75% to $13.39, reflecting a positive market reaction to the new rating.
- Investor Focus: Analyst Kenneth Lee highlighted that given investor focus on credit, GBDC's long-term track record of better loss experience compared to peers and its strong credit underwriting reputation provide a relatively differentiated portfolio in the core middle-market segment.
- Return Expectations: RBC's estimates imply a total return of approximately 22% over the next year, partly driven by dividend yield, suggesting the company's attractiveness in the current market environment.
See More
Latest Ratings and Outlook from Wall Street
- Apple Maintained as Buy: Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on Apple (AAPL), labeling it as the “highest quality name,” and despite underperformance year-to-date, it is still viewed as a high-quality compounder supported by resilient services growth and a healthy product cycle.
- Semiconductor Sector Pressure: Mizuho downgraded NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) to sell, citing its significant exposure to the auto sector as a headwind, with the 2026 auto outlook softened by geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.
- Netflix's Solid Performance: Bank of America reaffirmed its buy rating on Netflix following a solid first quarter that modestly beat forecasts, with management reiterating three core priorities that align with their ongoing strategic focus and competitive positioning in the market.
- Petrobras Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Petrobras (PBR) from neutral to buy, highlighting its robust cash flow generation and low double-digit dividend yield, which reduces the risk of a potential revision to its dividend policy in a high oil price environment.
See More
Blue Owl Caps Redemptions at 5% Amid High Requests
- Surge in Redemption Requests: Blue Owl's flagship OCIC fund faced redemption requests of approximately 21.9% during Q1, involving around $36 billion in assets, indicating heightened market concerns regarding AI-related disruptions to software companies, leading to increased liquidity pressure.
- Technology Fund Redemption Dynamics: The OTIC technology-focused fund experienced redemption requests as high as 40.7% in the same period, reflecting a concentrated shareholder base, particularly within certain wealth channels and regions, which exacerbated the redemption pressure.
- Redemption Cap Implementation: In response to the surge in redemption requests, Blue Owl opted to cap redemptions at 5% for both funds, a measure aimed at preserving liquidity and stabilizing investor confidence, while also demonstrating the company's ability to navigate market volatility.
- Market Reaction and Outlook: Despite implementing redemption caps, Blue Owl's shares fell approximately 9% in premarket trading on Thursday, indicating market concerns over its liquidity management, which may impact its competitive position in the private credit market moving forward.
See More
Concerns Over Private Credit Market Risks Emerge
- Market Growth: According to Barclays, the private credit market ballooned to $1.8 trillion in the first half of 2025, up from approximately $250 billion during the financial crisis, indicating strong demand for financing among mid-sized businesses.
- High-Risk Alerts: The bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor prompted JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to warn of potential systemic issues in private credit, highlighting vulnerabilities within the sector.
- Investor Structure Shift: Unlike the depositors during the 2008 crisis, the current investor base for private credit consists mainly of institutional investors such as pensions and sovereign wealth funds, which are more capable of locking up capital for extended periods, thereby reducing systemic risk.
- Normalizing Credit Conditions: While the private credit market faces increased stress, the majority of investments are in investment-grade loans, with only a small portion in high-yield loans, suggesting that the overall stability of the market remains relatively strong.
See More
Private Credit Markets Face Liquidity Test Amid Rising Defaults
- Liquidity Pressure Intensifies: Ares Management has capped investor redemptions in its $10.7 billion private credit fund at 5% after withdrawal requests surged to 11.6%, reflecting growing concerns over credit quality that could further undermine investor confidence in the sector.
- Default Rate Warning: Morgan Stanley warns that default rates in private credit direct lending could spike to 8%, significantly above the historical average of 2-2.5%, which would have a major impact on sectors heavily reliant on high leverage, particularly in software.
- Market Reset Signal: While rising default rates may cause pain for some funds, industry experts believe this could lead to better underwriting practices and more realistic valuations, ultimately freeing up capital for stronger businesses and promoting a healthy reset in the market.
- Concentrated Risk Areas: The software sector accounts for approximately 26% of direct lending, and as fears of AI disruption grow, attention has shifted to this area, with some smaller issuers experiencing default rates as high as 10.9%, highlighting the vulnerability of highly leveraged borrowers.
See More
KKR's Fund Downgraded to Junk by Moody's Amid Rising Bad Loans
- Credit Rating Downgrade: Moody's downgraded FS KKR Capital Corp's debt rating from Baa3 to Ba1, indicating a shift to junk status, which reflects worsening asset quality and declining profitability, leading to erosion of net asset value relative to peers.
- Rising Bad Loans: By the end of 2025, the fund's non-accrual loans rose to 5.5%, one of the highest rates among rated business development companies, indicating increasing asset quality challenges that could impact future investment returns.
- Investor Withdrawal Surge: Amid concerns over impending credit losses, retail investors are rushing to withdraw funds, creating liquidity pressures for the fund that may further increase borrowing costs and affect future returns.
- Poor Financial Performance: FS KKR reported a net loss of $114 million in Q4 2025, with only $11 million in net income for the entire year, highlighting a significant decline in profitability that could undermine its competitive position in the market.
See More
