Novavax Inc (NVAX) Shares Surge 16.22% Amid Rising Respiratory Illnesses
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVAX?
Source: Benzinga
- Surge in Respiratory Illnesses: The CDC reported that the 2025-26 flu season has seen at least 11 million cases, 120,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths, increasing attention on vaccine manufacturers and driving Novavax's stock up by 16.22%.
- Strong Technical Setup: Novavax is trading significantly above its key moving averages, with the stock 24.8% above its 20-day SMA and 23.9% above its 50-day SMA, indicating bullish momentum and potential for further gains.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although the stock has only gained 0.81% over the past 12 months, it is currently at 65.1% of its 52-week range, closer to the high of $10.64, suggesting short-term upside potential while cautioning against overbought conditions.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While the MACD indicates bullish momentum, the RSI is nearing overbought territory, prompting investors to monitor key support at $7.50 and resistance at $9.00 to assess future price movements.
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Analyst Views on NVAX
Wall Street analysts forecast NVAX stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 8.420
Low
6.00
Averages
10.50
High
18.00
Current: 8.420
Low
6.00
Averages
10.50
High
18.00
About NVAX
Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company. It is focused on addressing global health challenges through its vaccines and its proven technology platform, including protein-based nanoparticles and its Matrix-M adjuvant. Matrix-M can be used to create vaccines for a variety of diseases to help tackle some of the pressing health challenges. Its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant, when added to vaccines, has been shown to help induce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response. Its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology has been shown to be highly immunogenetic. Its technology platform is used in its authorized COVID-19 vaccine and the R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Its late-stage programs include a COVID-19-Influenzavaccine candidate, and an influenza vaccine candidate. R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine, a malaria vaccine developed by its partner. It provides Matrix-M adjuvant for use in various programs in preclinical and clinical stage, and preclinical investigations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna's Flu Vaccine Application Rejected by FDA
- Regulatory Rejection: The FDA's refusal to file Moderna's flu vaccine application, citing a lack of a comparator reflecting the 'best-available standard of care' despite no safety or efficacy concerns, resulted in a nearly 9% drop in MRNA shares during after-hours trading.
- Clinical Trial Data: The biologics license application included two positive Phase 3 studies with 43,808 participants, one showing a stronger immune response in adults aged 65 and older and the other demonstrating higher effectiveness in adults aged 50 and older, yet the FDA did not accept the application.
- Seeking Further Clarity: CEO Stephane Bancel indicated that the company will request a Type A meeting with the FDA to clarify the rejection, highlighting inconsistencies with prior FDA guidance that had allowed the use of a licensed standard-dose vaccine as a comparator.
- Market Reaction and Outlook: Despite the FDA's decision adding regulatory uncertainty for vaccine manufacturers, Moderna plans to submit applications in other countries by 2026 and expects potential approvals outside the U.S. in late 2026 or early 2027, reflecting ongoing confidence in future market opportunities.
See More
Pfizer Q4 Earnings Preview: Analysts Expect Decline
- Earnings Release Announcement: Pfizer is set to release its Q4 earnings before the market opens on February 3, with analysts projecting earnings per share of 57 cents, down from 63 cents a year ago, indicating a potential decline in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: The consensus estimate for Pfizer's quarterly revenue stands at $16.83 billion, a decrease from $17.76 billion in the previous year, suggesting that weakening market demand may impact the company's overall performance.
- Stock Price Movement: Ahead of the earnings report, Pfizer's stock rose 1.4% to close at $26.44 on Friday, reflecting some investor confidence despite the unfavorable earnings outlook.
- Collaboration Agreement Update: On January 20, Novavax announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the use of its Matrix-M adjuvant, which could provide a new growth avenue for Pfizer's product line, even as short-term financial performance faces challenges.
See More
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- Market Value Decline: Over the past five years, Novavax has seen its market value drop by more than 90%, and although it successfully launched a coronavirus vaccine, it struggled to maintain competitive sales against market leaders, resulting in significant financial challenges for the company.
- Licensing Agreement: Novavax entered a non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer, securing a $30 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $500 million, along with royalties on future products, providing a potential revenue boost for the company.
- Vaccine Development Setbacks: While Novavax is working on a flu vaccine and a combination coronavirus/flu vaccine, progress has been hindered by a clinical hold on phase 3 studies, and increasing competition in the market may impact future sales performance.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: With U.S. regulators changing recommendations on coronavirus vaccines, Novavax's revenue outlook has become more uncertain, and despite potential collaboration opportunities, the overall market environment remains challenging.
See More
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- Forecast Upgrade: Cantor Fitzgerald raised Pfizer's price forecast from $24 to $27, providing a positive catalyst for the pharmaceutical giant despite a 1.6% decline in the broader healthcare sector.
- Licensing Agreement: Pfizer entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Novavax for its Matrix-M adjuvant technology, granting Novavax a $30 million upfront payment and potential milestones up to $500 million, indicating Pfizer's proactive approach in product development.
- FDA Breakthrough Therapy: Pfizer's Sutent, in combination with Cogent Biosciences' bezuclastinib, received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation after showing a 50% reduction in disease progression risk, enhancing Pfizer's competitive edge in oncology treatments.
- Leadership Warning: At the World Economic Forum, CEO Albert Bourla warned that reduced funding for U.S. universities has weakened America's position in global health research, highlighting China's dominance in health research rankings.
See More
Novavax Partners with Pfizer in Key Licensing Deal
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- Financial Support Boost: This agreement enables Novavax to secure non-dilutive cash flow and ongoing royalties from future product sales, which can fund late-stage programs, improve its balance sheet, and extend its cash runway, thereby reducing development and marketing risks.
- Increased Focus on Respiratory Illnesses: With rising flu and RSV activity in the U.S., Novavax's vaccine technology has gained relevance, leading to heightened investor interest in its seasonal and respiratory vaccines, further driving the company's stock price upward.
- Strong Market Performance: Novavax shares surged 5.67% to $9.69 on Monday, trading 25.4% and 25.5% above its 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a robust short-term market trend.
See More
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- Optimistic Outlook for Novavax: Novavax closed at $9.90, with analysts projecting a 12-month price target of $12.89, suggesting a 30% upside, indicating confidence in its growth potential.
- Significant Licensing Agreement: Novavax's non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer includes a $30 million upfront payment and up to $500 million in development and sales milestones, showcasing its strategic positioning in the vaccine market and potential future revenue.
- High Market Sentiment: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for both Moderna and Novavax is ‘extremely bullish’, with Novavax's message activity surging over 600% in the past year, indicating strong investor confidence in its future performance.
See More
Moderna's Flu Vaccine Application Rejected by FDA
- Regulatory Rejection: The FDA's refusal to file Moderna's flu vaccine application, citing a lack of a comparator reflecting the 'best-available standard of care' despite no safety or efficacy concerns, resulted in a nearly 9% drop in MRNA shares during after-hours trading.
- Clinical Trial Data: The biologics license application included two positive Phase 3 studies with 43,808 participants, one showing a stronger immune response in adults aged 65 and older and the other demonstrating higher effectiveness in adults aged 50 and older, yet the FDA did not accept the application.
- Seeking Further Clarity: CEO Stephane Bancel indicated that the company will request a Type A meeting with the FDA to clarify the rejection, highlighting inconsistencies with prior FDA guidance that had allowed the use of a licensed standard-dose vaccine as a comparator.
- Market Reaction and Outlook: Despite the FDA's decision adding regulatory uncertainty for vaccine manufacturers, Moderna plans to submit applications in other countries by 2026 and expects potential approvals outside the U.S. in late 2026 or early 2027, reflecting ongoing confidence in future market opportunities.
See More
Pfizer Q4 Earnings Preview: Analysts Expect Decline
- Earnings Release Announcement: Pfizer is set to release its Q4 earnings before the market opens on February 3, with analysts projecting earnings per share of 57 cents, down from 63 cents a year ago, indicating a potential decline in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: The consensus estimate for Pfizer's quarterly revenue stands at $16.83 billion, a decrease from $17.76 billion in the previous year, suggesting that weakening market demand may impact the company's overall performance.
- Stock Price Movement: Ahead of the earnings report, Pfizer's stock rose 1.4% to close at $26.44 on Friday, reflecting some investor confidence despite the unfavorable earnings outlook.
- Collaboration Agreement Update: On January 20, Novavax announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the use of its Matrix-M adjuvant, which could provide a new growth avenue for Pfizer's product line, even as short-term financial performance faces challenges.
See More
Novavax Faces Challenges Despite Recent Gains
- Market Value Decline: Over the past five years, Novavax has seen its market value drop by more than 90%, and although it successfully launched a coronavirus vaccine, it struggled to maintain competitive sales against market leaders, resulting in significant financial challenges for the company.
- Licensing Agreement: Novavax entered a non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer, securing a $30 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $500 million, along with royalties on future products, providing a potential revenue boost for the company.
- Vaccine Development Setbacks: While Novavax is working on a flu vaccine and a combination coronavirus/flu vaccine, progress has been hindered by a clinical hold on phase 3 studies, and increasing competition in the market may impact future sales performance.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: With U.S. regulators changing recommendations on coronavirus vaccines, Novavax's revenue outlook has become more uncertain, and despite potential collaboration opportunities, the overall market environment remains challenging.
See More
Pfizer Shares Rise on Upgraded Price Forecast
- Forecast Upgrade: Cantor Fitzgerald raised Pfizer's price forecast from $24 to $27, providing a positive catalyst for the pharmaceutical giant despite a 1.6% decline in the broader healthcare sector.
- Licensing Agreement: Pfizer entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Novavax for its Matrix-M adjuvant technology, granting Novavax a $30 million upfront payment and potential milestones up to $500 million, indicating Pfizer's proactive approach in product development.
- FDA Breakthrough Therapy: Pfizer's Sutent, in combination with Cogent Biosciences' bezuclastinib, received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation after showing a 50% reduction in disease progression risk, enhancing Pfizer's competitive edge in oncology treatments.
- Leadership Warning: At the World Economic Forum, CEO Albert Bourla warned that reduced funding for U.S. universities has weakened America's position in global health research, highlighting China's dominance in health research rankings.
See More
Novavax Partners with Pfizer in Key Licensing Deal
- Pfizer Licensing Agreement: Novavax has entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer, allowing the latter to use Novavax's Matrix-M adjuvant, resulting in a $30 million upfront payment and potential development and sales milestones totaling up to $500 million, significantly enhancing Novavax's ability to monetize its vaccine platform.
- Financial Support Boost: This agreement enables Novavax to secure non-dilutive cash flow and ongoing royalties from future product sales, which can fund late-stage programs, improve its balance sheet, and extend its cash runway, thereby reducing development and marketing risks.
- Increased Focus on Respiratory Illnesses: With rising flu and RSV activity in the U.S., Novavax's vaccine technology has gained relevance, leading to heightened investor interest in its seasonal and respiratory vaccines, further driving the company's stock price upward.
- Strong Market Performance: Novavax shares surged 5.67% to $9.69 on Monday, trading 25.4% and 25.5% above its 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a robust short-term market trend.
See More
Analysts Favor Novavax Over Moderna After $30M Pfizer Licensing Deal
- Analyst Rating Divergence: Despite Moderna's 39% stock price increase over the past year, analysts remain cautious, assigning a ‘Hold’ rating with a price target of $37.40, indicating a 25% downside risk, reflecting concerns about its future performance.
- Optimistic Outlook for Novavax: Novavax closed at $9.90, with analysts projecting a 12-month price target of $12.89, suggesting a 30% upside, indicating confidence in its growth potential.
- Significant Licensing Agreement: Novavax's non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer includes a $30 million upfront payment and up to $500 million in development and sales milestones, showcasing its strategic positioning in the vaccine market and potential future revenue.
- High Market Sentiment: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for both Moderna and Novavax is ‘extremely bullish’, with Novavax's message activity surging over 600% in the past year, indicating strong investor confidence in its future performance.
See More
