Nomura Reports NIO (NIO.US) Exceeds Expectations in 4Q25 Results; Maintains Neutral Rating
Positive Financial Outlook: NIO-SW is expected to report positive GAAP and non-GAAP operating profits in 4Q25, surpassing previous expectations of breaking even, according to a Nomura research report.
New Model Launches: The introduction of new models like the ES9 and Onvo L80 in 2026 is anticipated to strengthen NIO's market position and financial health, provided they perform similarly to earlier successful models.
Target Price Adjustments: Citi has lowered NIO-SW's target price to HKD47.3, reflecting reduced sales forecasts for 2026-27, while maintaining a Neutral rating for NIO's US stock with a target price of US$8.4.
Market Activity: NIO-SW's stock has seen a significant short selling activity amounting to $97.00M, with a short selling ratio of 32.026%.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 09866
No data
About the author
HSI Rises 138 Points in Half-Day Trading as CMOC/LAOPU GOLD Jumps 6% After Blue Chip Inclusion; Overall HSI Increases 32% in Year of the Snake
Hong Kong Stock Performance: On February 16, Hong Kong stocks saw a positive half-day session, with the HSI closing up 138 points (0.5%) at 26,705, marking a strong overall performance in the Year of the Snake with a 32% gain.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: The quarterly review of the HSI included the addition of CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD, which saw significant gains, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed from the index.
Individual Stock Movements: Notable stock movements included SANDS CHINA LTD rising 2.7% despite a slight decline in property EBITDA, while ANTA SPORTS experienced a minor drop after shareholder approval for a significant acquisition.
US Department of War Update: The US Department of War's withdrawal of the "List of Chinese Military Companies" impacted stock prices, with BABA-W declining 0.5% and BIDU-SW increasing by 1.3%.
NIO-SW Battery Swap Business Achieves Record Daily Volume Year-to-Date
Battery Swap Milestone: NIO-SW announced a record daily battery swap volume of over 146,600, achieving its 100 millionth battery swap earlier this month, indicating strong market validation for its battery swapping model.
Market Position: The battery swapping solution has become a mainstream method for charging in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, reflecting a significant shift in consumer preferences.
US Department of War Updates 'CN Military Companies List' to Add BABA-W, BIDU-SW, and BYD COMPANY
US Department of War Updates List: The US Department of War added several Chinese companies, including Unitree and ROBOSENSE, to its "List of Chinese Military Companies," while removing others like YMTC and CXMT.
Alibaba's Response: Alibaba stated it is not involved in military activities and plans to take legal action against any misrepresentation of its image following its inclusion on the list.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling data for various companies, indicating significant short selling ratios for Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and NIO.
Market Reactions: The updates to the list and the associated short selling activities reflect ongoing tensions and market reactions to US-China relations.
CICC Lowers NIO-SW (09866.HK) Price Target to HKD50, Keeps Outperform Rating
CICC Report on NIO-SW: CICC's report indicates a forecast for NIO-SW's non-GAAP earnings in 4Q25 to be between RMB700 million and RMB1.2 billion, surpassing market expectations due to product improvements and cost reductions.
Revised Earnings Forecast: The adjusted recurring earnings forecast for 2025 has been improved from a loss of RMB13.17 billion to a loss of RMB12.38 billion, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged, with a projected recurring earnings of RMB7.68 billion for 2027.
Market Sentiment and Target Prices: Morgan Stanley suggests that any slight improvement in market sentiment for NIO-SW could indicate a potential recovery, although target prices for both Hong Kong and US stocks have been reduced by 19% to HKD50 and USD6.5, respectively.
Short Selling Data: As of February 12, 2026, NIO-SW has experienced short selling amounting to $31.88 million, with a short selling ratio of 19.671%.
<Study> G Sachs Ratings/Price Targets for Chinese Auto Manufacturers and Suppliers (Table)
Stock Ratings Overview: Various companies in the automotive sector, including BYD, Li Auto, XPeng, and Fuyao Glass, received "Buy" ratings with adjusted target prices reflecting recent market performance.
Short Selling Activity: Significant short selling activity was noted for several companies, with Li Auto and Minth Group showing high short selling ratios of 34.55% and 21.42%, respectively.
Neutral and Sell Ratings: NIO, Tuopu Group, and Huayu Automotive received "Neutral" or "Sell" ratings, indicating a cautious outlook on their stock performance.
Market Pressures: CLSA reported that rising costs are further compressing automaker profits, with companies like BYD and Leapmotor positioned better to absorb these pressures.
NIO-SW Targets Non-GAAP Full-Year Profits This Year, According to William Li
NIO's Investment Strategy: William Li, CEO of NIO, announced plans to continue investing in technology and product development while enhancing R&D efficiency.
Infrastructure Expansion Goals: NIO aims to build more charging and battery swap stations and expand its sales and service network, targeting non-GAAP profitability by 2026.
HSI Rises 138 Points in Half-Day Trading as CMOC/LAOPU GOLD Jumps 6% After Blue Chip Inclusion; Overall HSI Increases 32% in Year of the Snake
Hong Kong Stock Performance: On February 16, Hong Kong stocks saw a positive half-day session, with the HSI closing up 138 points (0.5%) at 26,705, marking a strong overall performance in the Year of the Snake with a 32% gain.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: The quarterly review of the HSI included the addition of CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD, which saw significant gains, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed from the index.
Individual Stock Movements: Notable stock movements included SANDS CHINA LTD rising 2.7% despite a slight decline in property EBITDA, while ANTA SPORTS experienced a minor drop after shareholder approval for a significant acquisition.
US Department of War Update: The US Department of War's withdrawal of the "List of Chinese Military Companies" impacted stock prices, with BABA-W declining 0.5% and BIDU-SW increasing by 1.3%.
NIO-SW Battery Swap Business Achieves Record Daily Volume Year-to-Date
Battery Swap Milestone: NIO-SW announced a record daily battery swap volume of over 146,600, achieving its 100 millionth battery swap earlier this month, indicating strong market validation for its battery swapping model.
Market Position: The battery swapping solution has become a mainstream method for charging in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, reflecting a significant shift in consumer preferences.
US Department of War Updates 'CN Military Companies List' to Add BABA-W, BIDU-SW, and BYD COMPANY
US Department of War Updates List: The US Department of War added several Chinese companies, including Unitree and ROBOSENSE, to its "List of Chinese Military Companies," while removing others like YMTC and CXMT.
Alibaba's Response: Alibaba stated it is not involved in military activities and plans to take legal action against any misrepresentation of its image following its inclusion on the list.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling data for various companies, indicating significant short selling ratios for Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and NIO.
Market Reactions: The updates to the list and the associated short selling activities reflect ongoing tensions and market reactions to US-China relations.
CICC Lowers NIO-SW (09866.HK) Price Target to HKD50, Keeps Outperform Rating
CICC Report on NIO-SW: CICC's report indicates a forecast for NIO-SW's non-GAAP earnings in 4Q25 to be between RMB700 million and RMB1.2 billion, surpassing market expectations due to product improvements and cost reductions.
Revised Earnings Forecast: The adjusted recurring earnings forecast for 2025 has been improved from a loss of RMB13.17 billion to a loss of RMB12.38 billion, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged, with a projected recurring earnings of RMB7.68 billion for 2027.
Market Sentiment and Target Prices: Morgan Stanley suggests that any slight improvement in market sentiment for NIO-SW could indicate a potential recovery, although target prices for both Hong Kong and US stocks have been reduced by 19% to HKD50 and USD6.5, respectively.
Short Selling Data: As of February 12, 2026, NIO-SW has experienced short selling amounting to $31.88 million, with a short selling ratio of 19.671%.
<Study> G Sachs Ratings/Price Targets for Chinese Auto Manufacturers and Suppliers (Table)
Stock Ratings Overview: Various companies in the automotive sector, including BYD, Li Auto, XPeng, and Fuyao Glass, received "Buy" ratings with adjusted target prices reflecting recent market performance.
Short Selling Activity: Significant short selling activity was noted for several companies, with Li Auto and Minth Group showing high short selling ratios of 34.55% and 21.42%, respectively.
Neutral and Sell Ratings: NIO, Tuopu Group, and Huayu Automotive received "Neutral" or "Sell" ratings, indicating a cautious outlook on their stock performance.
Market Pressures: CLSA reported that rising costs are further compressing automaker profits, with companies like BYD and Leapmotor positioned better to absorb these pressures.
NIO-SW Targets Non-GAAP Full-Year Profits This Year, According to William Li
NIO's Investment Strategy: William Li, CEO of NIO, announced plans to continue investing in technology and product development while enhancing R&D efficiency.
Infrastructure Expansion Goals: NIO aims to build more charging and battery swap stations and expand its sales and service network, targeting non-GAAP profitability by 2026.
