Match Group Issues Soft Guidance Amid AI and Product Investments
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 03 2026
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Should l Buy MTCH?
Source: Newsfilter
- Financial Performance Beats Expectations: Match Group reported earnings per share of 83 cents, exceeding the expected 70 cents, with revenue of $878 million also surpassing the $871 million forecast, yet the company faces challenges with slowing user growth.
- Weak Future Guidance: The company forecasts 2026 revenue between $3.41 billion and $3.54 billion, falling short of FactSet's estimate of $3.59 billion, with CFO Steve Bailey attributing the weak outlook to strategic investments in Tinder and underperformance in its Asian brands.
- AI Investment Impact: Match Group is allocating $60 million for AI and new product rollouts at Tinder, which is expected to create a 1.5-point headwind to near-term monetization, but aims to enhance user experience and drive future growth.
- Declining User Trends: The number of paying users fell 5% year-over-year to 13.8 million, with an 8% decline in Tinder's paying users, a trend linked to the conclusion of business development deals in Q4 that resulted in tougher year-over-year comparisons.
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Analyst Views on MTCH
Wall Street analysts forecast MTCH stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 29.920
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
Current: 29.920
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
About MTCH
Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a provider of digital technologies designed to help people make connections. The Company’s global portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and more, each built to increase its users' likelihood of connecting with others. Its segments include Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen & Emerging, and MG Asia. Tinder is an online dating platform with swipe technology. It offers Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, or Tinder Platinum subscriptions. Hinge is an application focused on millennial and younger generations in English-speaking countries and several other European markets. It offers two premium subscriptions: Hinge+ and HingeX. MG Asia brands primarily focus on serving various Asian and Middle Eastern markets. MG Asia's brands are Azar and The Pairs. Match is an online dating application, and Meetic, a European online dating brand, are included in the Evergreen & Emerging segment.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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