Macau Gaming Revenue Set for Strong Spring Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Record Visitor Numbers: Macau welcomed approximately 1.55 million visitors during the Spring Festival Golden Week, with single-day arrivals exceeding 227,000 on the third day of the holiday, marking a historic high and indicating strong market demand and recovery potential.
- Optimistic Revenue Forecast: According to Jefferies' latest analysis, Macau's gaming revenue is expected to achieve low to mid-teens growth in March, driven by relatively easy comparisons and robust premium market performance.
- High Hotel Occupancy Rates: Macau's hotel occupancy rates remain in the mid-90s, with average daily rates up by mid to high teens compared to 2025, reflecting the tourism sector's recovery and strong market demand.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite strong growth momentum in the first half of the year, analysts anticipate increased competition in the second half, particularly for premium operators like Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Resorts, making market share battles more complex.
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Analyst Views on MLCO
Wall Street analysts forecast MLCO stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 5.530
Low
9.50
Averages
11.21
High
12.55
Current: 5.530
Low
9.50
Averages
11.21
High
12.55
About MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd is an investment holding company principally engaged in the development and operation of resort facilities. The Company is mainly involved in the provision of casinos, hotel rooms, food and beverage, as well as entertainment, retail and other services. The Company operates casinos under the names of City of Dreams, Studio City, Altira Macau, City of Dreams Manila, City of Dreams Mediterranean and others. The Company also operates electronic gaming machines through Mocha Clubs. In addition, the Company offers hotel management services. The Company operates its business in Asia and Europe.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dividend Yield Potential: Bain noted that half of Melco's future net free cash flow could be allocated to create a ~9% dividend yield, while the other half would go toward debt repayment, thereby enhancing the company's financial stability and attractiveness to investors.
- Share Repurchase Plans: Melco could also opt to initiate an accelerated share repurchase program or aggressively buy back shares under its $710 million buyback authorization, which would further boost earnings per share and enhance shareholder value.
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- Water Conservation: The company has achieved annual savings of over 290,000 m³ of water through effective management practices, which is equivalent to saving 116 Olympic-sized swimming pools, thereby strengthening its leadership position in sustainability.
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- Supply Chain Sustainability: In 2025, 100% of bed and bath linens were sourced with OEKO-TEX® certification, ensuring product safety, while 80% of chemicals procured were rated green or amber, reflecting the company's proactive efforts in environmental stewardship.
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- Sequential Decline Analysis: Despite the year-on-year increase, April's revenue was down 12.6% from March, primarily due to the month being traditionally slow with no extended holidays to boost activity.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenues of $1.37 billion in Q1, an 11.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations by $40 million, demonstrating positive progress in the recovery of tourism and gaming operations, which solidifies its market position.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: As the Macau market recovers, Melco Resorts is recognized as a standout in the casino sector, with analysts expressing optimism about its future growth potential, likely attracting more investor interest.
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See More
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- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, MLCO has exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a strong and consistent performance in the market.
- Positive Market Response: With Macau gaming revenue exceeding expectations in March, Melco Resorts is recognized as a standout in the Macau casino sector, boosting investor confidence in its future performance.
- Valuation and Growth Potential: Analysts suggest that Melco Resorts is currently undervalued, with upcoming catalysts likely to drive stock price increases, particularly against the backdrop of growth in the Macau market.
See More
Futu Holdings Faces Regulatory Fine
- Futu Holdings Stock Plummets: Futu Holdings shares fell to a 52-week low of $80.50 after China's securities regulator accused the company of operating without licenses in mainland China, proposing a $271 million fine and requiring the shutdown of its mainland apps, which heightened investor concerns over future compliance costs.
- BJ's Wholesale Club Earnings Fail to Boost Stock: Despite BJ's Wholesale Club reporting Q1 revenue and earnings above analyst estimates, its stock dropped 8.3% due to slowing core merchandise demand and margin pressure, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Melco Resorts Faces Profitability Challenges: Melco Resorts' stock hit new lows as Q1 earnings of $0.07 per share missed the $0.09 consensus estimate, raising investor concerns about high labor and marketing costs amid fierce competition in Macau's casino market.
- Overall Market Sentiment Shifts: Futu and Melco stocks have plunged 45% and 29% respectively, while BJ's stock has decreased by 3%, reflecting a significant decline in investor confidence in these companies amid regulatory and operational challenges.
See More
Texas Capital Sees Upside for Melco Resorts & Entertainment
- Cash Flow and Capital Structure: Analyst David Bain highlighted that Melco Resorts & Entertainment's (MLCO) free cash flow and capital structure provide unique corporate optionality, with the parent company able to purchase MLCO's float at a 56% premium to Friday's closing price, utilizing one turn of leverage for capital operations.
- Dividend Yield Potential: Bain noted that half of Melco's future net free cash flow could be allocated to create a ~9% dividend yield, while the other half would go toward debt repayment, thereby enhancing the company's financial stability and attractiveness to investors.
- Share Repurchase Plans: Melco could also opt to initiate an accelerated share repurchase program or aggressively buy back shares under its $710 million buyback authorization, which would further boost earnings per share and enhance shareholder value.
- Buy Rating and Price Target: Texas Capital maintains a Buy rating on Melco Resorts with a price target of $11.50, representing over 100% upside from current trading levels, despite the stock being down more than 27% year-to-date.
See More
Melco Resorts Releases 2025 Sustainability Report
- Energy Efficiency Achievements: Melco Resorts has implemented energy efficiency measures that have resulted in annual savings of over 71.7 million kWh, equivalent to the electricity consumption of over 10,000 homes, significantly reducing operational costs while enhancing environmental accountability.
- Water Conservation: The company has achieved annual savings of over 290,000 m³ of water through effective management practices, which is equivalent to saving 116 Olympic-sized swimming pools, thereby strengthening its leadership position in sustainability.
- Community Engagement: Over 4,100 colleagues participated in 486 volunteering activities, showcasing the company's commitment to social responsibility, while delivering over 763,000 learning hours to enhance employee skills and promote professional growth.
- Supply Chain Sustainability: In 2025, 100% of bed and bath linens were sourced with OEKO-TEX® certification, ensuring product safety, while 80% of chemicals procured were rated green or amber, reflecting the company's proactive efforts in environmental stewardship.
See More
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- Revenue Growth: According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 5.5% year-on-year in April to 19.9 billion patacas ($2.46 billion), indicating signs of market recovery.
- Sequential Decline Analysis: Despite the year-on-year increase, April's revenue was down 12.6% from March, primarily due to the month being traditionally slow with no extended holidays to boost activity.
- Year-to-Date Performance: For the first four months of 2026, Macau's GGR is up 12.1% year-on-year to 85.8 billion patacas ($10.6 billion), yet still down 14.5% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, highlighting the challenges in market recovery.
- Market Pressure Warning: Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that the deceleration in revenue growth and increased margin pressure could lead casino operators to become more vigilant regarding expense fluctuations and player reinvestment as uncertainties loom ahead.
See More
Melco Resorts Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Melco Resorts reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.20, exceeding expectations by $0.08, indicating a strong rebound in profitability and reflecting its competitive edge in the Macau market.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenues of $1.37 billion in Q1, an 11.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations by $40 million, demonstrating positive progress in the recovery of tourism and gaming operations, which solidifies its market position.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: As the Macau market recovers, Melco Resorts is recognized as a standout in the casino sector, with analysts expressing optimism about its future growth potential, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Upcoming Catalysts: The company is viewed as undervalued, with several catalysts on the horizon that could drive stock price increases, including sustained market demand and potential rating upgrades, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Melco Resorts Q1 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) is set to announce its Q1 earnings on April 29 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.09 and revenue forecast at $1.33 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-over-year growth.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, MLCO has exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a strong and consistent performance in the market.
- Positive Market Response: With Macau gaming revenue exceeding expectations in March, Melco Resorts is recognized as a standout in the Macau casino sector, boosting investor confidence in its future performance.
- Valuation and Growth Potential: Analysts suggest that Melco Resorts is currently undervalued, with upcoming catalysts likely to drive stock price increases, particularly against the backdrop of growth in the Macau market.
See More
