Goldman Sachs Initiates Buy on Aevex with 39% Upside
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 12 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Goldman Sachs Rating: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Aevex with a buy rating and a price target of $34, indicating a 39% upside from Monday's close, reflecting strong confidence in the company's investment potential within the rapidly growing defense tech market.
- IPO Performance: Aevex debuted on the New York Stock Exchange last month with an IPO price of $20, and its shares have risen over 22% since then, demonstrating market recognition of its unmanned aircraft systems' demand and future growth potential.
- Market Outlook: According to market intelligence firm IDTechEx, demand for drones in consumer, commercial, and defense applications is projected to exceed $147 billion by 2036, positioning Aevex as a key beneficiary of this market expansion as a leading supplier of unmanned aerial systems.
- Revenue Structure: The analyst noted that approximately two-thirds of Aevex's revenue is linked to the Ukraine conflict, and the company is expected to shift focus towards domestic UAS projects, indicating a strategic adjustment to adapt to the evolving market landscape.
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Analyst Views on AVEX
Wall Street analysts forecast AVEX stock price to rise
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Current: 40.480
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Current: 40.480
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About AVEX
AEVEX Corp. is a defense technology prime contractor and critical enabler of the United States Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy missions. The Company delivers technology-leading products and solutions through two complementary business segments which are Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested, autonomous, modular, and attritable unmanned systems (UxS), including UAS and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV), along with other mission critical products. Global Solutions provides bespoke mission solutions, including artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled full-spectrum airborne ISR, counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS), additive manufacturing, and specialized mission aircraft engineering, modification, and testing. Its solutions are primarily sold to agencies and organizations within the United States Department of War (DoW), Special Operations Forces (SOF), Intelligence Community (IC) and allied international partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Investor Decision Signal: The stock's rise above the target price provides a strong signal for investors to reassess the company, prompting considerations of whether to hold or take profits, which could impact market liquidity in the short term.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: The analysts' target prices reflect a
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See More
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- Engineering and Production Capacity: AEVEX stated that the contract work will be carried out through its U.S. engineering and production operations, which not only enhances the company's production capabilities but also strengthens its market influence in the defense sector.
- Future Growth Potential: Although specific details regarding the scope of the contracts and platforms were not disclosed, the acquisition of this order suggests ongoing growth potential for AEVEX in the drone market, potentially laying the groundwork for future business expansion.
See More
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- Price Target Breakthrough: AVEX shares recently traded at $40.66, surpassing the average analyst 12-month target price of $35.62, indicating increased market confidence and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Diverse Analyst Reactions: Among the 8 analysts covered by Zacks, target prices range from $31.00 to $45.00, with a standard deviation of $4.274, highlighting differing opinions on AVEX's future performance, necessitating cautious investor assessment.
- Investor Decision Signal: The stock's rise above the target price provides a strong signal for investors to reassess the company, prompting considerations of whether to hold or take profits, which could impact market liquidity in the short term.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: The analysts' target prices reflect a
See More
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- Market Potential Surge: Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan doubled the total addressable market for drones to $140 billion by 2027, reflecting strong confidence in the industry's growth prospects, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence.
- Significant Corporate Benefits: Shares of Unusual Machines surged over 60% following reports of Pentagon talks, with Roth Capital Partners highlighting the company's advantageous position in the U.S. drone components market due to robust regulatory support, which is expected to further solidify its market standing.
- Increased Investor Attention: Barclays analyst Tim Long noted that while the drone businesses of Motorola Solutions and Axon Enterprise contribute minimally to revenue, they could drive significant growth moving forward, with a price target of $509 for Motorola implying a potential upside of about 25%.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: Ondas is seen as a potential winner by Oppenheimer, as demand for drones accelerates, with its Sentrycs product leading the market; analysts believe its partnership with Palantir will further enhance its competitive edge.
See More
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- Investor Conference Participation: AEVEX Corp. will participate in the William Blair 46th Annual Growth Stock Conference and the Jefferies Defense Technology Summit, scheduled for June 2 and June 4, 2026, showcasing its leadership in defense technology.
- One-on-One Meeting Opportunities: AEVEX management will host one-on-one meetings with institutional investors at the William Blair conference, allowing investors to connect with the firm to strengthen investor relations and engagement.
- Webcast Presentation: AEVEX will deliver a presentation at the Jefferies conference that will be webcast, accessible via the Investors section of the company's website, enhancing transparency and attracting investor interest.
- Company Overview: AEVEX is a leading U.S. defense technology company focused on delivering autonomous unmanned systems, AI-enabled mission software, and advanced ISR and electronic warfare solutions, aimed at strengthening the U.S. technological and industrial advantage.
See More
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- IPO Financing Goal: Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX) has filed to go public on the NYSE, seeking to raise approximately $634 million to reduce debt and capitalize on growing demand tied to defense modernization and commercial space programs, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Stock Offering Details: The company plans to offer 32.5 million shares priced between $18 and $21 each, with the midpoint potentially raising about $633.8 million before underwriting discounts and expenses, further elevating its market valuation to $3.59 billion.
- Financial Performance and Debt Status: Despite a 24.8% revenue growth to $498.8 million in 2025 and an increase in adjusted EBITDA to $117.9 million, the company reported a net loss of $17 million, highlighting financial challenges amid its expansion efforts.
- Contract Backlog and Market Outlook: As of March 31, 2026, Applied Aerospace has a contract backlog of approximately $1.06 billion, with 87% of its revenue derived from sole-source suppliers, indicating deep integration with major customers and the potential for sustained growth through $3.8 billion in future business opportunities.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Aevex Corp. reported Q1 total revenue of $216.7 million, more than quadrupling year-over-year and exceeding the $134.5 million market expectation, demonstrating rapid expansion driven by robust demand for autonomous systems and mission software.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA reached $36.4 million, surpassing the $17.4 million consensus estimate, indicating substantial progress in enhancing margins and operational efficiency, which boosts investor confidence.
- Optimistic Annual Outlook: The company expects full-year revenue between $600 million and $620 million, above the $585 million estimate, reflecting strong confidence in future growth, while adjusted EBITDA expectations also exceed analyst forecasts.
- New Contract Fuels Growth: Aevex Corp. secured a $15.6 million contract from the U.S. Air Force to support advanced unmanned aircraft mission capabilities, highlighting the soaring demand in the defense sector for drones and pilotless systems, further solidifying the company's market position.
See More
AEVEX Secures $15.6 Million Air Force Contracts
- Significant Contract Value: AEVEX announced it has secured $15.6 million in contracts from the U.S. Air Force to support unmanned aircraft mission capabilities and airborne system integration, indicating strong demand for the company in the defense tech sector.
- Platform Advantage: The contracts involve AEVEX's long-range, one-way attack platform designed for long-range operations and high payload capacity, further solidifying its competitive position in the drone market.
- Engineering and Production Capacity: AEVEX stated that the contract work will be carried out through its U.S. engineering and production operations, which not only enhances the company's production capabilities but also strengthens its market influence in the defense sector.
- Future Growth Potential: Although specific details regarding the scope of the contracts and platforms were not disclosed, the acquisition of this order suggests ongoing growth potential for AEVEX in the drone market, potentially laying the groundwork for future business expansion.
See More
