GOLDMAN SACHS CUTS Q2 BRENT/WTI FORECAST TO $90/87 DUE TO DECREASE IN RISK PREMIUM AND INCREASING OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE SOH
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy WTI?
Source: moomoo
Goldman Sachs Q2 Forecast: Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q2 forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices to $90 and $87, respectively.
Market Conditions: This adjustment is attributed to a reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve, indicating changing market dynamics.
Oil Flow Trends: There is an ongoing trend of oil flows through the Southern Hemisphere, which may impact global supply and pricing.
Implications for Investors: The revised forecasts and market conditions could influence investment strategies and decisions in the energy sector.
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Analyst Views on WTI
About WTI
W&T Offshore, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas producer with operations offshore in the Gulf of America. The Company has working interests in approximately 52 fields in federal and state waters (which include 45 fields in federal waters and seven in state waters). The Company has under lease approximately 646,200 gross acres (502,300 net acres) spanning across the outer continental shelf off the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama, with approximately 493,000 gross acres on the conventional shelf, approximately 147,700 gross acres in the deepwater and 5,500 gross acres in Alabama state waters. The Company’s interests in fields, leases, structures and equipment are primarily owned by its wholly owned subsidiaries and through its proportionately consolidated interest in Monza Energy LLC. The Company's subsidiaries include Aquasition Energy LLC, Aquasition LLC, Aquasition II, LLC, Aquasition III, LLC, Aquasition IV, LLC, Aquasition V, LLC, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tensions in Strait of Hormuz Surge, Oil Prices Spike
- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices spiked as WTI futures rose approximately 7% to $89.74 per barrel and Brent futures increased nearly 5.8% to $95.59, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
- Military Conflict Escalation: The U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian container ship and took custody of it, indicating a heightened military presence in the Strait of Hormuz that could lead to larger conflicts, thereby impacting global energy supplies.
- Uncertain Negotiation Prospects: While Trump announced talks with Iran in Islamabad on Monday, Iran declined to attend due to the ongoing U.S. naval blockade, highlighting significant divisions in peace negotiations that could worsen the situation.
- Ceasefire Agreement Expiration: The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire this week, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not accepted, increasing market concerns over potential future conflicts and further oil price hikes.
See More
Oil Prices Rise; Brent and WTI Increase by $1 a Barrel Amid Continued Disruption of Ship Traffic Through Hormuz
Oil Prices: Brent crude oil prices have increased by $1 per barrel.
Shipping Traffic: Shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait remains significantly disrupted.
See More
GOLDMAN SACHS CUTS Q2 BRENT/WTI FORECAST TO $90/87 DUE TO DECREASE IN RISK PREMIUM AND INCREASING OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE SOH
Goldman Sachs Q2 Forecast: Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q2 forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices to $90 and $87, respectively.
Market Conditions: This adjustment is attributed to a reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve, indicating changing market dynamics.
Oil Flow Trends: There is an ongoing trend of oil flows through the Southern Hemisphere, which may impact global supply and pricing.
Implications for Investors: The revised forecasts and market conditions could influence investment strategies and decisions in the energy sector.
See More
W&T Offshore Reports Steady Growth in 2025 Earnings
- Production Growth: W&T Offshore's fourth-quarter output reached 36.2 MBoe/d in 2025, with an average annual production of 34.0 MBoe/d, reflecting a 10.4% increase from 2024 and demonstrating the company's steady performance in the small-cap offshore oil sector.
- Improved Financial Position: By year-end 2025, W&T's net debt decreased to $210.3 million, down 7.18% from the previous year, while cash reserves rose to $140.6 million, providing greater flexibility for future acquisitions and investments.
- Controlled Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $54.8 million, below the lower end of guidance, with 2026 spending expected to further decline to between $19.5 million and $24.5 million, indicating a more cautious approach to growth.
- Project Investment Returns: The company invested $19.8 million in the West Delta 73 alternative route project, which is expected to generate over $60 million in incremental cash flow and reduce transportation costs by $5.75 per barrel starting in Q1 2026, enhancing profitability further.
See More
W&T Offshore Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Quarterly Production Growth: W&T Offshore achieved a production rate of 36,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2025, an 18.1% increase from 30,500 barrels in Q1, reflecting the company's ongoing focus on production enhancement projects and strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $130 million, with year-end cash rising by $31 million to nearly $141 million, while net debt was reduced by $74 million to $210 million, indicating effective financial management and improved liquidity.
- Capital Expenditures and Investments: The company reported capital expenditures of $55 million in 2025, below the low end of prior guidance, and completed a $20 million pipeline facility project, demonstrating asset appreciation while controlling costs.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts a midpoint production of approximately 35,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for Q1 2026, with capital expenditures projected to drop to $22 million, indicating a strategic focus on extracting value from existing assets despite lower spending.
See More
W&T Offshore (WTI) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
Tensions in Strait of Hormuz Surge, Oil Prices Spike
- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices spiked as WTI futures rose approximately 7% to $89.74 per barrel and Brent futures increased nearly 5.8% to $95.59, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
- Military Conflict Escalation: The U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian container ship and took custody of it, indicating a heightened military presence in the Strait of Hormuz that could lead to larger conflicts, thereby impacting global energy supplies.
- Uncertain Negotiation Prospects: While Trump announced talks with Iran in Islamabad on Monday, Iran declined to attend due to the ongoing U.S. naval blockade, highlighting significant divisions in peace negotiations that could worsen the situation.
- Ceasefire Agreement Expiration: The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire this week, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not accepted, increasing market concerns over potential future conflicts and further oil price hikes.
See More
Oil Prices Rise; Brent and WTI Increase by $1 a Barrel Amid Continued Disruption of Ship Traffic Through Hormuz
Oil Prices: Brent crude oil prices have increased by $1 per barrel.
Shipping Traffic: Shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait remains significantly disrupted.
See More
GOLDMAN SACHS CUTS Q2 BRENT/WTI FORECAST TO $90/87 DUE TO DECREASE IN RISK PREMIUM AND INCREASING OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE SOH
Goldman Sachs Q2 Forecast: Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q2 forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices to $90 and $87, respectively.
Market Conditions: This adjustment is attributed to a reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve, indicating changing market dynamics.
Oil Flow Trends: There is an ongoing trend of oil flows through the Southern Hemisphere, which may impact global supply and pricing.
Implications for Investors: The revised forecasts and market conditions could influence investment strategies and decisions in the energy sector.
See More
W&T Offshore Reports Steady Growth in 2025 Earnings
- Production Growth: W&T Offshore's fourth-quarter output reached 36.2 MBoe/d in 2025, with an average annual production of 34.0 MBoe/d, reflecting a 10.4% increase from 2024 and demonstrating the company's steady performance in the small-cap offshore oil sector.
- Improved Financial Position: By year-end 2025, W&T's net debt decreased to $210.3 million, down 7.18% from the previous year, while cash reserves rose to $140.6 million, providing greater flexibility for future acquisitions and investments.
- Controlled Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $54.8 million, below the lower end of guidance, with 2026 spending expected to further decline to between $19.5 million and $24.5 million, indicating a more cautious approach to growth.
- Project Investment Returns: The company invested $19.8 million in the West Delta 73 alternative route project, which is expected to generate over $60 million in incremental cash flow and reduce transportation costs by $5.75 per barrel starting in Q1 2026, enhancing profitability further.
See More
W&T Offshore Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Quarterly Production Growth: W&T Offshore achieved a production rate of 36,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2025, an 18.1% increase from 30,500 barrels in Q1, reflecting the company's ongoing focus on production enhancement projects and strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $130 million, with year-end cash rising by $31 million to nearly $141 million, while net debt was reduced by $74 million to $210 million, indicating effective financial management and improved liquidity.
- Capital Expenditures and Investments: The company reported capital expenditures of $55 million in 2025, below the low end of prior guidance, and completed a $20 million pipeline facility project, demonstrating asset appreciation while controlling costs.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts a midpoint production of approximately 35,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for Q1 2026, with capital expenditures projected to drop to $22 million, indicating a strategic focus on extracting value from existing assets despite lower spending.
See More
W&T Offshore (WTI) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
