G Sachs: HK Budget Shows Positive Outlook for Property Market; SHKP, HLD, and SINO Preferred
Hong Kong Budget Overview: The Hong Kong government did not announce major stimulus measures for the residential market in the Budget, which has shown signs of recovery since mid-2025, leading to a more positive outlook.
Fiscal Surplus Projection: Due to strong capital market activities and economic recovery, the fiscal surplus for FY2025/26 is now projected at HKD2.9 billion, aided by higher-than-expected stamp duty and corporate tax revenues.
Market Sentiment and Developer Profitability: Despite the lack of stimulus, Goldman Sachs believes that improved economic conditions, favorable immigration policies, and low land sale prices will enhance market sentiment and profitability for developers.
Stock Recommendations: Goldman Sachs has upgraded its home price growth forecast for 2026 to 12% and issued Buy ratings for SHK PPT, HENDERSON LAND, and SINO LAND, reflecting optimism in the Hong Kong residential market.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00012
About the author
<Midday Update> HSI Declines by 876 Points; HSTI Falls by 151 Points; PING AN Drops More Than 5%; HKEX Decreases Over 3%; XIAOMI Decreases Over 3%
Market Overview: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 3.5% to 24,400, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced significant declines of 3.1%.
Active Heavyweights Performance: Major stocks like PING AN, HKEX, and XIAOMI saw substantial drops, with PING AN down 6% and HKEX down 3.9%, reflecting a trend of short selling across these companies.
Notable Declines Among Constituents: Companies such as CHINAHONGQIAO and LAOPU GOLD faced severe losses, with CHINAHONGQIAO dropping 11.7% and LAOPU GOLD down 10.7%, indicating a broader market downturn.
Short Selling Trends: A significant amount of short selling was observed, particularly in stocks like XIAOMI and AIA, with ratios exceeding 30%, highlighting investor pessimism in the current market conditions.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 25,716, Dropping 182 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,027, Down 27 Points; CSPC PHARMA Falls by More than 4%; CNOOC, CHINA SHENHUA, CHINA RISUN GP, QINGSONG HEALTH, and 160 HEALTH Reach New Peaks; Market Trading Volume Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 182 points (0.7%) to close at 25,716, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan saw slight declines, with Alibaba closing at $131.6 (-1.2%) and Tencent at $546.5 (-1%).
Notable Movers: Xpeng and JD Logistics were among the gainers, with Xpeng rising 4.4% to $78.45, while CSPC Pharma and Nongfu Spring faced significant losses, dropping 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including Meituan (46.5%) and Nongfu Spring (53.8%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
HSI Drops 318 Points at Noon; Energy Stocks Surge; Developers Under Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI fell by 1.2% to 25,579 points, with significant losses in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached HKD131.003 billion.
Sector Highlights: Oil stocks like PETROCHINA and CNOOC saw gains of 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively, while coal stocks also performed well, with YANKUANG ENERGY rising by 8.5%.
Inflation Impact: Inflation concerns negatively affected real estate and utility stocks, with major companies like HENDERSON LAND and SHK PPT experiencing declines of over 3%.
Tech Sector Trends: Major tech stocks such as TENCENT and BABA-W faced losses, with TENCENT dropping 1.1% and BABA-W falling 2.3%, while JD-SW managed a slight increase of 0.2%.
<Midday Update> HSI Falls 318 Points; HSTI Declines by 60 Points; CMOC Drops Over 5%; CNOOC, CHINA SHENHUA, CHINA RISUN GP, QINGSONG HEALTH, YANKUANG ENERGY Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 318 points (1.2%) to 25,579, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent saw significant drops, with Alibaba closing down 2.3% and Tencent down 1.1%, amidst high short selling activity.
Notable Movers: CMOC and Nongfu Spring were among the biggest losers, dropping over 5%, while China Risun GP and Qingsong Health achieved notable gains, with China Risun GP up 18.3%.
Short Selling Trends: The report highlighted substantial short selling across various stocks, indicating bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for companies like Meituan and Techtronic Industries.
M Stanley Selects CK ASSET as Leading Industry Choice; CN Property Buyers Acquire 2,600 Units in HK in 2M26, Marking a 91% Increase
Mainland China Property Purchases: Mainland China buyers acquired 2,600 units in Hong Kong in 2M26, marking a 91% year-over-year increase, with total transactions reaching HKD28.2 billion, up 136% YoY.
Factors Driving Growth: The surge in purchases is attributed to a stronger RMB exchange rate, attractive rental yields, positive gross carry, and a recovery in property prices.
Morgan Stanley's Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Hong Kong's residential market, selecting CK ASSET as its top pick with an Overweight rating, and favoring SHK PPT over HENDERSON LAND.
Short Selling Data: As of March 11, 2026, short selling data indicates significant activity in HK developers, with SHK PPT and HENDERSON LAND showing notable short selling ratios.
JPM: Market Excessively Worries About Rate Hike Effects on HK Homebuilders; Rates Anticipated to Remain Steady for the Next Year
Market Concerns: JPMorgan's research indicates worries about potential rate hikes due to inflation or geopolitical factors, which could negatively impact the Hong Kong property sector's valuations.
Interest Rate Outlook: The broker expects interest rates to remain stable for the next four quarters, allowing homebuyers to benefit from a positive interest margin, which may help the sector endure unchanged rates.
Sensitivity to Rate Changes: NEW WORLD DEV and HENDERSON LAND are identified as the most sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, while other sector fundamentals remain strong, leading to a positive outlook from JPMorgan.
Top Picks: JPMorgan's preferred stocks include SHK PPT and SINO LAND among developers, and SWIRE PROPERTIES, Hongkong Land, and HANG LUNG PPT among landlords.
<Midday Update> HSI Declines by 876 Points; HSTI Falls by 151 Points; PING AN Drops More Than 5%; HKEX Decreases Over 3%; XIAOMI Decreases Over 3%
Market Overview: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 3.5% to 24,400, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced significant declines of 3.1%.
Active Heavyweights Performance: Major stocks like PING AN, HKEX, and XIAOMI saw substantial drops, with PING AN down 6% and HKEX down 3.9%, reflecting a trend of short selling across these companies.
Notable Declines Among Constituents: Companies such as CHINAHONGQIAO and LAOPU GOLD faced severe losses, with CHINAHONGQIAO dropping 11.7% and LAOPU GOLD down 10.7%, indicating a broader market downturn.
Short Selling Trends: A significant amount of short selling was observed, particularly in stocks like XIAOMI and AIA, with ratios exceeding 30%, highlighting investor pessimism in the current market conditions.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 25,716, Dropping 182 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,027, Down 27 Points; CSPC PHARMA Falls by More than 4%; CNOOC, CHINA SHENHUA, CHINA RISUN GP, QINGSONG HEALTH, and 160 HEALTH Reach New Peaks; Market Trading Volume Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 182 points (0.7%) to close at 25,716, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan saw slight declines, with Alibaba closing at $131.6 (-1.2%) and Tencent at $546.5 (-1%).
Notable Movers: Xpeng and JD Logistics were among the gainers, with Xpeng rising 4.4% to $78.45, while CSPC Pharma and Nongfu Spring faced significant losses, dropping 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including Meituan (46.5%) and Nongfu Spring (53.8%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
HSI Drops 318 Points at Noon; Energy Stocks Surge; Developers Under Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI fell by 1.2% to 25,579 points, with significant losses in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached HKD131.003 billion.
Sector Highlights: Oil stocks like PETROCHINA and CNOOC saw gains of 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively, while coal stocks also performed well, with YANKUANG ENERGY rising by 8.5%.
Inflation Impact: Inflation concerns negatively affected real estate and utility stocks, with major companies like HENDERSON LAND and SHK PPT experiencing declines of over 3%.
Tech Sector Trends: Major tech stocks such as TENCENT and BABA-W faced losses, with TENCENT dropping 1.1% and BABA-W falling 2.3%, while JD-SW managed a slight increase of 0.2%.
<Midday Update> HSI Falls 318 Points; HSTI Declines by 60 Points; CMOC Drops Over 5%; CNOOC, CHINA SHENHUA, CHINA RISUN GP, QINGSONG HEALTH, YANKUANG ENERGY Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 318 points (1.2%) to 25,579, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent saw significant drops, with Alibaba closing down 2.3% and Tencent down 1.1%, amidst high short selling activity.
Notable Movers: CMOC and Nongfu Spring were among the biggest losers, dropping over 5%, while China Risun GP and Qingsong Health achieved notable gains, with China Risun GP up 18.3%.
Short Selling Trends: The report highlighted substantial short selling across various stocks, indicating bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for companies like Meituan and Techtronic Industries.
M Stanley Selects CK ASSET as Leading Industry Choice; CN Property Buyers Acquire 2,600 Units in HK in 2M26, Marking a 91% Increase
Mainland China Property Purchases: Mainland China buyers acquired 2,600 units in Hong Kong in 2M26, marking a 91% year-over-year increase, with total transactions reaching HKD28.2 billion, up 136% YoY.
Factors Driving Growth: The surge in purchases is attributed to a stronger RMB exchange rate, attractive rental yields, positive gross carry, and a recovery in property prices.
Morgan Stanley's Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Hong Kong's residential market, selecting CK ASSET as its top pick with an Overweight rating, and favoring SHK PPT over HENDERSON LAND.
Short Selling Data: As of March 11, 2026, short selling data indicates significant activity in HK developers, with SHK PPT and HENDERSON LAND showing notable short selling ratios.
JPM: Market Excessively Worries About Rate Hike Effects on HK Homebuilders; Rates Anticipated to Remain Steady for the Next Year
Market Concerns: JPMorgan's research indicates worries about potential rate hikes due to inflation or geopolitical factors, which could negatively impact the Hong Kong property sector's valuations.
Interest Rate Outlook: The broker expects interest rates to remain stable for the next four quarters, allowing homebuyers to benefit from a positive interest margin, which may help the sector endure unchanged rates.
Sensitivity to Rate Changes: NEW WORLD DEV and HENDERSON LAND are identified as the most sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, while other sector fundamentals remain strong, leading to a positive outlook from JPMorgan.
Top Picks: JPMorgan's preferred stocks include SHK PPT and SINO LAND among developers, and SWIRE PROPERTIES, Hongkong Land, and HANG LUNG PPT among landlords.
