Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Competition
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Share Shift: Since June 2024, prescriptions for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs have declined in the U.S., while Eli Lilly's market share has risen to 60%, demonstrating its strong competitive position in the weight loss drug market.
- Clinical Trial Results: Eli Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in head-to-head trials, with participants losing an average of 50 pounds over 72 weeks compared to Wegovy's 33 pounds, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in the weight loss drug sector.
- Infrastructure Investment: Since 2020, Eli Lilly has committed over $50 billion to new manufacturing sites and expansions, announcing 10 U.S. facilities to meet growing market demand and ensure future supply capabilities.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron is awaiting regulatory approval, with a decision expected by April 10, which, if approved, could provide a significant competitive advantage and further reinforce Lilly's market leadership.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1038.270
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1038.270
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly's Innovation and Growth Prospects
- Strong Clinical Execution: Eli Lilly achieved positive outcomes in nearly all R&D key events in 2025, showcasing exceptional performance in diabetes and weight loss medications, which is expected to further drive market share and revenue growth in the future.
- Cancer Drug Progress: The company's cancer medication, Jaypirca, excelled in a phase 3 trial and is on track for label expansions, which will provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in oncology treatment.
- AI Investment: Eli Lilly is investing in building the industry's largest AI supercomputer to accelerate drug development, which is expected to significantly improve clinical trial success rates and bolster the company's innovative standing and market leadership in the pharmaceutical sector.
- Robust Financial Performance: The company continues to report strong financial results, boasts a rich product pipeline, and rewards shareholders through increasing dividends and share buybacks, demonstrating its diversified growth potential beyond diabetes and weight loss markets.
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- Market Volatility: Pfizer's stock surged from $33 to nearly $60 in 2020 due to rapid COVID-19 vaccine production, but after a significant drop in 2023, it now trades around $28, indicating the volatility in pharmaceutical demand.
- Patent Expiration Risks: Drug companies face challenges from patent expirations, with typical drug patents lasting 20 years; however, due to lengthy development times, effective market exclusivity often shrinks to just 10 to 12 years, necessitating continuous pipeline replenishment.
- Strategic Acquisition: Eli Lilly announced a $2.4 billion acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, which focuses on innovative drugs that manipulate genes and cells within patients, further solidifying its leadership in the lucrative GLP-1 drug category.
- Collaborative Development: Prior to the acquisition, Lilly entered a $350 million collaboration with a Chinese biotech firm to develop treatments for immune disorders and cancer, showcasing its strategic vision for global innovation in drug development.
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- Inflation Data Impact: The cooler-than-expected January consumer price index contributed to a drop in bond yields and increased expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, further bolstering investor sentiment.
- Eli Lilly's Drug Inventory: Eli Lilly has built up $1.5 billion worth of pre-launch inventory for its GLP-1 obesity pill orforglipron, significantly up from $550 million last year, indicating strong demand expectations from the market.
- Upcoming Earnings Reports: Approximately 50 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings next week, including Palo Alto Networks and Texas Roadhouse, with the market closely watching these reports for their implications on the broader economy.
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Novo Nordisk Addresses Drug Compounding Issues Amid Competition
- Compounding Challenges: Despite the resolution of the semaglutide shortage, Novo Nordisk continues to face increased drug compounding issues, particularly in the market for its injectable and oral obesity drugs, indicating competitive pressures within the industry.
- Market Expansion Strategy: CEO Mike Doustdar stated that the company will scale its Wegovy pills country-by-country to avoid shortages, with 246,000 people currently using the drug, reflecting strong market demand and potential for growth.
- Competitive Landscape Analysis: Doustdar dismissed concerns regarding competition with Eli Lilly, highlighting that Wegovy achieved a 16.6% weight loss in clinical trials compared to Lilly's 12.4%, providing Novo with a competitive edge in the obesity treatment market.
- Legal Action: Novo Nordisk recently filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers to prevent the sale of compounded versions of semaglutide, demonstrating the company's commitment to protecting its intellectual property and market share.
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- Increased Patient Treatments: A total of 147 patients initiated treatment in 2025, nearly tripling from 2024, with 30 infusions occurring in Q4, reflecting heightened acceptance and confidence in the therapy.
- Pipeline Advancement: The company continues to advance its in vivo liver editing programs, with CTX310 in Phase 1b trials for lipid disorders and CTX321 progressing through enabling studies, with updates expected in the second half of 2026.
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Eli Lilly's Innovation and Growth Prospects
- Strong Clinical Execution: Eli Lilly achieved positive outcomes in nearly all R&D key events in 2025, showcasing exceptional performance in diabetes and weight loss medications, which is expected to further drive market share and revenue growth in the future.
- Cancer Drug Progress: The company's cancer medication, Jaypirca, excelled in a phase 3 trial and is on track for label expansions, which will provide new revenue streams and enhance its competitiveness in oncology treatment.
- AI Investment: Eli Lilly is investing in building the industry's largest AI supercomputer to accelerate drug development, which is expected to significantly improve clinical trial success rates and bolster the company's innovative standing and market leadership in the pharmaceutical sector.
- Robust Financial Performance: The company continues to report strong financial results, boasts a rich product pipeline, and rewards shareholders through increasing dividends and share buybacks, demonstrating its diversified growth potential beyond diabetes and weight loss markets.
See More
Beijing May Prioritize Consumers in the Year of the Horse: Strategies to Consider.
- Economic Outlook: As China enters the Year of the Fire Horse, there is an expectation of a lower official economic growth target from Beijing.
- Focus Shift: The Chinese government is anticipated to prioritize reviving consumer confidence and spending over previous economic strategies.
See More
Eli Lilly Acquires Orna Therapeutics to Enhance Drug Pipeline
- Market Volatility: Pfizer's stock surged from $33 to nearly $60 in 2020 due to rapid COVID-19 vaccine production, but after a significant drop in 2023, it now trades around $28, indicating the volatility in pharmaceutical demand.
- Patent Expiration Risks: Drug companies face challenges from patent expirations, with typical drug patents lasting 20 years; however, due to lengthy development times, effective market exclusivity often shrinks to just 10 to 12 years, necessitating continuous pipeline replenishment.
- Strategic Acquisition: Eli Lilly announced a $2.4 billion acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, which focuses on innovative drugs that manipulate genes and cells within patients, further solidifying its leadership in the lucrative GLP-1 drug category.
- Collaborative Development: Prior to the acquisition, Lilly entered a $350 million collaboration with a Chinese biotech firm to develop treatments for immune disorders and cancer, showcasing its strategic vision for global innovation in drug development.
See More
Market Rebounds as Eli Lilly Prepares for New Drug Launch
- Market Rebound: After a volatile week, the S&P 500 showed signs of recovery on Friday, although it still faced losses over the past five trading days, indicating a renewed investor confidence in the economic outlook.
- Inflation Data Impact: The cooler-than-expected January consumer price index contributed to a drop in bond yields and increased expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, further bolstering investor sentiment.
- Eli Lilly's Drug Inventory: Eli Lilly has built up $1.5 billion worth of pre-launch inventory for its GLP-1 obesity pill orforglipron, significantly up from $550 million last year, indicating strong demand expectations from the market.
- Upcoming Earnings Reports: Approximately 50 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings next week, including Palo Alto Networks and Texas Roadhouse, with the market closely watching these reports for their implications on the broader economy.
See More
Novo Nordisk Addresses Drug Compounding Issues Amid Competition
- Compounding Challenges: Despite the resolution of the semaglutide shortage, Novo Nordisk continues to face increased drug compounding issues, particularly in the market for its injectable and oral obesity drugs, indicating competitive pressures within the industry.
- Market Expansion Strategy: CEO Mike Doustdar stated that the company will scale its Wegovy pills country-by-country to avoid shortages, with 246,000 people currently using the drug, reflecting strong market demand and potential for growth.
- Competitive Landscape Analysis: Doustdar dismissed concerns regarding competition with Eli Lilly, highlighting that Wegovy achieved a 16.6% weight loss in clinical trials compared to Lilly's 12.4%, providing Novo with a competitive edge in the obesity treatment market.
- Legal Action: Novo Nordisk recently filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers to prevent the sale of compounded versions of semaglutide, demonstrating the company's commitment to protecting its intellectual property and market share.
See More
Casgevy Therapy Revenue Shows Significant Growth
- Revenue Growth: Casgevy gene-editing therapy generated $54 million in Q4 2025 and $116 million for the full year, indicating strong market demand and significant business growth potential.
- Increased Patient Treatments: A total of 147 patients initiated treatment in 2025, nearly tripling from 2024, with 30 infusions occurring in Q4, reflecting heightened acceptance and confidence in the therapy.
- Pipeline Advancement: The company continues to advance its in vivo liver editing programs, with CTX310 in Phase 1b trials for lipid disorders and CTX321 progressing through enabling studies, with updates expected in the second half of 2026.
- Financial Position: CRISPR Therapeutics ended 2025 with $1.98 billion in cash and marketable securities, despite R&D expenses rising to $83.5 million in Q4 and net loss widening to $130.6 million, market confidence in its future growth remains strong.
See More
