Daiwa Raises JD LOGISTICS Price Target to HKD19.5; Attractive Valuation with Positive Profit Forecast
Company Performance: JD Logistics reported a significant increase in revenue for Q4 2025, with overall revenue rising by 22% year-on-year, driven by a 68% increase in internal revenue.
Revenue Breakdown: Internal revenue accounted for 42% of the total revenue, while external revenue saw a modest growth of 2% year-on-year.
Market Sentiment: The company's stock experienced a notable rise of 20.643%, indicating positive market sentiment.
Future Outlook: Management expressed optimism regarding the revenue and profit outlook for 2026, suggesting confidence in continued growth.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 02618
About the author
<Midday Update> HSI Rises by 396 Points; HSTI Gains 69 Points; TENCENT Surges Over 5%; BABA Increases Over 3%; LINGBAOGOLD-100 and HUISHANG BANK Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 396 points (1.6%) to 25,804, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also saw gains of 69 points (1.4%) and 91 points (1.1%) respectively.
Top Gainers: Notable gainers included TENCENT (+5.7% to $545.5), BABA (+3% to $132.6), and CATL (+8.7% to $547), with significant short selling activity reported for these stocks.
Decliners: DEEPEXI TECH experienced a sharp decline of 18.6%, closing at $88.25, while other stocks like XIAOMI and MEITUAN also saw slight decreases.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (32.91%) and MEITUAN (34.52%), indicating investor caution or bearish sentiment in these companies.
M Stanley Upgrades JD LOGISTICS to Overweight Rating and Increases Price Target to HKD16.2, Citing Attractive Valuation
Growth Expectations: JD LOGISTICS is projected to experience strong growth in 2026, driven by profitability trends and base effects, according to Morgan Stanley's research report.
Profit Margin Forecast: The net profit margin for JD LOGISTICS is expected to increase from 3.6% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026, and further to 3.8% in 2027.
Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for JD LOGISTICS by 11% for 2026 and 15% for 2027.
Target Price and Rating Upgrade: The target price for JD LOGISTICS has been increased from HKD12.8 to HKD16.2, and the rating has been upgraded from Equalweight to Overweight due to attractive valuation.
JPM: JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) Projects Margin Improvement in 1Q; Maintains Overweight Rating
JD Logistics' Shift in Strategy: JD Logistics has shown a significant change in priorities, focusing on profitability and disciplined capital allocation, which reflects a broader trend in China's logistics industry.
Industry Cooperation and Efficiency: Companies like ZTO Express, SF Holding, and J&T Express are emphasizing operational efficiency and sustainable returns, indicating a collective shift in the logistics sector towards margin-oriented strategies.
Positive Market Reaction: Following JD Logistics' quarterly results, the stock price surged by approximately 20%, marking a turnaround after five consecutive quarters of declines post-earnings announcements.
Future Growth Expectations: Analysts predict that JD Logistics' renewed focus on sustainable profitability and overseas expansion will lead to a re-rating of Chinese logistics stocks, with JP Morgan maintaining an Overweight rating and a target price of HKD15.
G Sachs Revises Price Targets for JD LOGISTICS and JD INDUSTRIALS to $18.7 and $17
Goldman Sachs Outlook: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about JD-SW's future, predicting growth reactivation and profit recovery by 2026, despite a decline in revenue and profit in 4Q25.
JD Retail Performance: JD Retail's 4Q25 results showed a solid profit performance with a narrowing loss in the delivery business, while daily necessities and advertising revenue experienced double-digit growth.
Target Price Adjustments: Goldman Sachs raised its target price for JD LOGISTICS from $17.4 to $18.7 and lowered JD INDUSTRIALS' target price from $19.6 to $17, maintaining a Buy rating for both.
Overall Market Sentiment: The broker continues to view JD-SW as a revaluation story, keeping its rating and target price at Buy and $169, respectively.
Nomura Raises JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) Price Target to $18 Following Strong 4Q25 Revenue and Profit Performance
4Q25 Performance: JD LOGISTICS reported a 22% year-over-year increase in total revenue for 4Q25, surpassing market expectations, primarily driven by growth in internal revenue despite a decline in external revenue.
Profit Margins: The non-IFRS operating profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year to 3.0%, attributed to a narrower gross margin, yet it still exceeded Nomura's forecast by 0.2 percentage points.
Analyst Ratings: Nomura maintained a "Buy" rating on JD LOGISTICS and raised its target price from $17 to $18, reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
Earnings Forecasts: Nomura also increased its adjusted EPS forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 by 9% and 13%, respectively, indicating an improving profit outlook for the company.
HSI Rises 435 Points as JD-SW Jumps 10% and JD LOGISTICS Soars 23%
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains, with the HSI rising 1.7% to 25,757, the HSCEI up 2.1% to 8,628, and the HSTECH increasing 3.2% to 4,947, alongside a total market turnover of $292.766 billion.
JD Series Surge: JD-SW shares surged nearly 10% to $106.6 following positive results, while JD LOGISTICS experienced a remarkable 23% increase, making it the largest gainer among blue chips.
Tech Stocks Rally: Major tech companies like TENCENT, BABA-W, and MEITUAN-W saw their stock prices rise between 3.1% and 5.2%, reflecting a broader positive trend in the tech sector.
BILIBILI-W Decline: Despite reporting a 94% increase in adjusted net profit, BILIBILI-W's stock price fell by 4.5%, contrasting with other companies that experienced gains.
<Midday Update> HSI Rises by 396 Points; HSTI Gains 69 Points; TENCENT Surges Over 5%; BABA Increases Over 3%; LINGBAOGOLD-100 and HUISHANG BANK Reach New Peaks
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 396 points (1.6%) to 25,804, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also saw gains of 69 points (1.4%) and 91 points (1.1%) respectively.
Top Gainers: Notable gainers included TENCENT (+5.7% to $545.5), BABA (+3% to $132.6), and CATL (+8.7% to $547), with significant short selling activity reported for these stocks.
Decliners: DEEPEXI TECH experienced a sharp decline of 18.6%, closing at $88.25, while other stocks like XIAOMI and MEITUAN also saw slight decreases.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (32.91%) and MEITUAN (34.52%), indicating investor caution or bearish sentiment in these companies.
M Stanley Upgrades JD LOGISTICS to Overweight Rating and Increases Price Target to HKD16.2, Citing Attractive Valuation
Growth Expectations: JD LOGISTICS is projected to experience strong growth in 2026, driven by profitability trends and base effects, according to Morgan Stanley's research report.
Profit Margin Forecast: The net profit margin for JD LOGISTICS is expected to increase from 3.6% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026, and further to 3.8% in 2027.
Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for JD LOGISTICS by 11% for 2026 and 15% for 2027.
Target Price and Rating Upgrade: The target price for JD LOGISTICS has been increased from HKD12.8 to HKD16.2, and the rating has been upgraded from Equalweight to Overweight due to attractive valuation.
JPM: JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) Projects Margin Improvement in 1Q; Maintains Overweight Rating
JD Logistics' Shift in Strategy: JD Logistics has shown a significant change in priorities, focusing on profitability and disciplined capital allocation, which reflects a broader trend in China's logistics industry.
Industry Cooperation and Efficiency: Companies like ZTO Express, SF Holding, and J&T Express are emphasizing operational efficiency and sustainable returns, indicating a collective shift in the logistics sector towards margin-oriented strategies.
Positive Market Reaction: Following JD Logistics' quarterly results, the stock price surged by approximately 20%, marking a turnaround after five consecutive quarters of declines post-earnings announcements.
Future Growth Expectations: Analysts predict that JD Logistics' renewed focus on sustainable profitability and overseas expansion will lead to a re-rating of Chinese logistics stocks, with JP Morgan maintaining an Overweight rating and a target price of HKD15.
G Sachs Revises Price Targets for JD LOGISTICS and JD INDUSTRIALS to $18.7 and $17
Goldman Sachs Outlook: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about JD-SW's future, predicting growth reactivation and profit recovery by 2026, despite a decline in revenue and profit in 4Q25.
JD Retail Performance: JD Retail's 4Q25 results showed a solid profit performance with a narrowing loss in the delivery business, while daily necessities and advertising revenue experienced double-digit growth.
Target Price Adjustments: Goldman Sachs raised its target price for JD LOGISTICS from $17.4 to $18.7 and lowered JD INDUSTRIALS' target price from $19.6 to $17, maintaining a Buy rating for both.
Overall Market Sentiment: The broker continues to view JD-SW as a revaluation story, keeping its rating and target price at Buy and $169, respectively.
Nomura Raises JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) Price Target to $18 Following Strong 4Q25 Revenue and Profit Performance
4Q25 Performance: JD LOGISTICS reported a 22% year-over-year increase in total revenue for 4Q25, surpassing market expectations, primarily driven by growth in internal revenue despite a decline in external revenue.
Profit Margins: The non-IFRS operating profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year to 3.0%, attributed to a narrower gross margin, yet it still exceeded Nomura's forecast by 0.2 percentage points.
Analyst Ratings: Nomura maintained a "Buy" rating on JD LOGISTICS and raised its target price from $17 to $18, reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
Earnings Forecasts: Nomura also increased its adjusted EPS forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 by 9% and 13%, respectively, indicating an improving profit outlook for the company.
HSI Rises 435 Points as JD-SW Jumps 10% and JD LOGISTICS Soars 23%
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains, with the HSI rising 1.7% to 25,757, the HSCEI up 2.1% to 8,628, and the HSTECH increasing 3.2% to 4,947, alongside a total market turnover of $292.766 billion.
JD Series Surge: JD-SW shares surged nearly 10% to $106.6 following positive results, while JD LOGISTICS experienced a remarkable 23% increase, making it the largest gainer among blue chips.
Tech Stocks Rally: Major tech companies like TENCENT, BABA-W, and MEITUAN-W saw their stock prices rise between 3.1% and 5.2%, reflecting a broader positive trend in the tech sector.
BILIBILI-W Decline: Despite reporting a 94% increase in adjusted net profit, BILIBILI-W's stock price fell by 4.5%, contrasting with other companies that experienced gains.
