Citi Maintains CHINA RES BEER as Preferred Choice with Buy Rating and Target Price of HKD38
Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.
Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.
Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.
Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.
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Citi Maintains CHINA RES BEER as Preferred Choice with Buy Rating and Target Price of HKD38
Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.
Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.
Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.
Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.
<UOB Kay Hian's Consumer Ratings and Target Prices (Table)>
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.
Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.
Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.
AH Smart Index Removes CEA/TSINGTAO BREWERY and Adds SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES/SERES
Index Review Announcement: The China Securities Index Company and Hang Seng Indexes Company released the half-yearly review results for the Hang Seng CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong AH Smart Index, which includes the largest 50 AH companies under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme.
Constituent Changes: The index maintains 50 constituent companies, with SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES and SERES being newly included, while CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY were excluded.
Future Share Class Determination: The share classes of the companies included in the index will be determined in March 2026, aligning with the monthly share class switching exercise.
Market Data: The report includes short selling data for the excluded companies, indicating significant short selling activity and ratios for both CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY.
HSI Rises by 141 Points on Settlement Day as Chinese Developers Soar; Consumer Stocks Improve After Noon
Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks rose on the settlement date, with the HSI increasing by 141 points (0.5%) to close at 27,968, while the HSCEI gained 40 points (0.4%) to finish at 9,552. The HSTECH, however, fell by 59 points (1%) to close at 5,841.
Chinese Developers Surge: Significant gains were observed among Chinese developers, attributed to reports that they are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" metrics monthly. Notable increases included KWG GROUP (+40.96%), CHINA AOYUAN (+32.88%), and SUNAC (+29.13%).
Short Selling Activity: The short selling activity was notable, with various developers experiencing high ratios, such as SHIMAO GROUP (6.765%) and CIFI HOLD GP (1.472%), indicating a mix of investor sentiment in the market.
Consumer Stocks Rise: Consumer stocks also saw increases, with ZJLD surging by 12.35% and CTG DUTY-FREE by 7.98%, alongside other notable gains in companies like TSINGTAO BREW (+5.63%) and ANTA SPORTS (+4.80%).
<Research> Bernstein Reveals Top Asia-Pacific Picks for First Half of 2026 (Table)
CNOOC and JD.com Short Selling: CNOOC has a short selling value of $28.22M with a ratio of 3.983%, while JD.com shows a significantly higher short selling value of $91.22M and a ratio of 19.039%.
Stock Performance of Various Companies: Companies like SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and MediaTek are mentioned, with some showing minor fluctuations in stock prices.
Brent Oil Price Forecast: Citi has raised its three-month Brent oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, indicating a positive outlook for oil prices.
Short Selling Data Overview: The report includes short selling data for various companies, with notable figures for Tsingtao Brew and Kunlun Energy, reflecting varying levels of market activity.
Citi Lowers BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD11.4 and Reduces Sales and Profit Projections
Citi's Sales Forecast Adjustment: Citi has reduced its 2025-27 sales forecasts for BUD APAC by 3% to 4% due to a less favorable outlook for its China business, particularly for 4Q25 sales impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026.
Core Net Profit Forecasts Cut: The bank has also lowered its core net profit forecasts for BUD APAC by 10% for 2025 and 2026, and by 9% for 2027, reflecting weakened operating leverage.
Target Price Revision: BUD APAC's target price has been decreased from HKD12.4 to HKD11.4, although Citi maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Preference for Chinese Beer Makers: Citi's ranking of Chinese beer makers remains unchanged, with BUD APAC positioned below CHINA RES BEER and TSINGTAO BREW in their preference order.
Citi Maintains CHINA RES BEER as Preferred Choice with Buy Rating and Target Price of HKD38
Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.
Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.
Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.
Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.
<UOB Kay Hian's Consumer Ratings and Target Prices (Table)>
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.
Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.
Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.
Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.
AH Smart Index Removes CEA/TSINGTAO BREWERY and Adds SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES/SERES
Index Review Announcement: The China Securities Index Company and Hang Seng Indexes Company released the half-yearly review results for the Hang Seng CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong AH Smart Index, which includes the largest 50 AH companies under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme.
Constituent Changes: The index maintains 50 constituent companies, with SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES and SERES being newly included, while CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY were excluded.
Future Share Class Determination: The share classes of the companies included in the index will be determined in March 2026, aligning with the monthly share class switching exercise.
Market Data: The report includes short selling data for the excluded companies, indicating significant short selling activity and ratios for both CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY.
HSI Rises by 141 Points on Settlement Day as Chinese Developers Soar; Consumer Stocks Improve After Noon
Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks rose on the settlement date, with the HSI increasing by 141 points (0.5%) to close at 27,968, while the HSCEI gained 40 points (0.4%) to finish at 9,552. The HSTECH, however, fell by 59 points (1%) to close at 5,841.
Chinese Developers Surge: Significant gains were observed among Chinese developers, attributed to reports that they are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" metrics monthly. Notable increases included KWG GROUP (+40.96%), CHINA AOYUAN (+32.88%), and SUNAC (+29.13%).
Short Selling Activity: The short selling activity was notable, with various developers experiencing high ratios, such as SHIMAO GROUP (6.765%) and CIFI HOLD GP (1.472%), indicating a mix of investor sentiment in the market.
Consumer Stocks Rise: Consumer stocks also saw increases, with ZJLD surging by 12.35% and CTG DUTY-FREE by 7.98%, alongside other notable gains in companies like TSINGTAO BREW (+5.63%) and ANTA SPORTS (+4.80%).
<Research> Bernstein Reveals Top Asia-Pacific Picks for First Half of 2026 (Table)
CNOOC and JD.com Short Selling: CNOOC has a short selling value of $28.22M with a ratio of 3.983%, while JD.com shows a significantly higher short selling value of $91.22M and a ratio of 19.039%.
Stock Performance of Various Companies: Companies like SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and MediaTek are mentioned, with some showing minor fluctuations in stock prices.
Brent Oil Price Forecast: Citi has raised its three-month Brent oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, indicating a positive outlook for oil prices.
Short Selling Data Overview: The report includes short selling data for various companies, with notable figures for Tsingtao Brew and Kunlun Energy, reflecting varying levels of market activity.
Citi Lowers BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD11.4 and Reduces Sales and Profit Projections
Citi's Sales Forecast Adjustment: Citi has reduced its 2025-27 sales forecasts for BUD APAC by 3% to 4% due to a less favorable outlook for its China business, particularly for 4Q25 sales impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026.
Core Net Profit Forecasts Cut: The bank has also lowered its core net profit forecasts for BUD APAC by 10% for 2025 and 2026, and by 9% for 2027, reflecting weakened operating leverage.
Target Price Revision: BUD APAC's target price has been decreased from HKD12.4 to HKD11.4, although Citi maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Preference for Chinese Beer Makers: Citi's ranking of Chinese beer makers remains unchanged, with BUD APAC positioned below CHINA RES BEER and TSINGTAO BREW in their preference order.
