CICC: WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) Chairman's Club Anticipated to Drive Robust Lunar New Year Reservations
4Q25 Financial Results: WYNN MACAU reported a net revenue of US$968 million for 4Q25, a 4% increase year-over-year, but adjusted property EBITDA fell 7% to US$271 million, below market expectations.
Future Performance Outlook: CICC forecasts strong performance for WYNN MACAU during the 2026 Lunar New Year, driven by the new premium gaming area at Wynn Palace, with positive business trends anticipated to continue into 2026.
Brokerage Ratings: M Stanley has maintained an Overweight rating on WYNN MACAU, keeping its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged, along with a target price of $7.2.
Market Activity: The stock has seen short selling of $19.38 million, with a short selling ratio of 21.606%, indicating some market caution despite the overall positive outlook.
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HSBC Research Updates Ratings and Target Prices for Casinos (Table)
Stock Performance: Several casino stocks in Hong Kong showed positive gains, with Galaxy Entertainment up by 1.895% and MGM China by 1.751%.
Short Selling Data: Galaxy Entertainment had the highest short selling amount at $40.21M, while MGM China had the highest short selling ratio at 58.844%.
Analyst Ratings: UBS upgraded Sands China Ltd and Melco International Development to "Buy" while maintaining a 5% GGR growth forecast for the year.
Current Ratings: SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau are rated as "Hold," with target prices of 2.2 and 6.5 respectively.
<Study>UBS Casino Ratings and Target Prices (Table)
Stock Ratings and Target Prices: Various companies in the gaming sector have received updated ratings and target prices, with Melco Resorts rated as "Buy" and Sands China downgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy".
Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity is noted across several companies, with Sands China experiencing the highest short selling ratio at 52.992%.
Market Performance: Most companies listed, including Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, have seen declines in their stock prices, with Galaxy down by 4.522%.
Analyst Recommendations: CLSA has highlighted Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China as top picks following a positive report on Macau's gaming revenue for February.
JPM Suggests Focused Investment Strategy, Identifies GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice; February GGR Exceeds Expectations
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February increased by 4% year-on-year to MOP20.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a notable surge in the last week of February driven by high-end customer demand.
Investor Recommendations: JPMorgan advised investors to be selective, favoring GALAXY ENT with a target price of HKD52, while rating SJM HOLDINGS and MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT as Underweight with lower target prices.
M Stanley: GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD Favorably Viewed for Steady Cash Flow Growth and Dividends in the Casino Sector
Macau Casino Performance: The Lunar New Year performance for Macau casinos was moderate, raising concerns from Morgan Stanley about profit pressures due to promotional activities, despite better GGR performance compared to other Chinese consumers.
Positive Financial Indicators: Continuous growth in cash flow and dividends makes casino valuations attractive, with no AI risks impacting the sector.
Broker Recommendations: CLSA predicts a 7.4% YoY increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected visitor influx, favoring GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA for their high dividends.
Morgan Stanley Ratings: Morgan Stanley's ratings for Macau casinos include "Overweight" for SANDS CHINA, GALAXY ENT, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated "Underweight" due to potential EBITDA fluctuations.
HSBC Research Maintains Buy Ratings on SANDS CHINA LTD, GALAXY ENT, and MGM CHINA; Spring Festival Visitor Numbers Show Strong Travel Spending Resilience
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, averaging MOP786 million per day, with a notable increase during the Chinese New Year Golden Week.
Daily GGR Trends: The average daily GGR was initially sluggish but accelerated to MOP1.2-1.3 billion in the last three days of the period, reflecting a 10-15% increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Citi's GGR Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered its GGR forecast for Macau in February to MOP19.5 billion, indicating a more cautious outlook.
Stock Performance Overview: The report includes stock performance data for major gaming companies in Macau, highlighting short selling ratios and price changes for companies like Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Macau.
JPM Adjusts February GGR Projections, Names GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, with a daily average of MOP650 million, falling short of JPMorgan's expectations during the Lunar New Year period.
Forecast Adjustments: Due to mixed performance, JPMorgan revised its February GGR forecast to a flat to 2% increase year-on-year, down from a previous estimate of 2-5% growth, while maintaining a 12-13% growth expectation for the first two months of 2026.
Casino Stock Preferences: JPMorgan updated its preference order for Macau casino stocks, ranking Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick, followed by MGM China and Sands China, all rated Overweight, while Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were rated Underweight.
Market Reactions: The report noted a decline in casino stocks, with Sands China slipping 2.5% after Citi cut its GGR forecast, reflecting broader market concerns about the gaming sector's performance.
HSBC Research Updates Ratings and Target Prices for Casinos (Table)
Stock Performance: Several casino stocks in Hong Kong showed positive gains, with Galaxy Entertainment up by 1.895% and MGM China by 1.751%.
Short Selling Data: Galaxy Entertainment had the highest short selling amount at $40.21M, while MGM China had the highest short selling ratio at 58.844%.
Analyst Ratings: UBS upgraded Sands China Ltd and Melco International Development to "Buy" while maintaining a 5% GGR growth forecast for the year.
Current Ratings: SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau are rated as "Hold," with target prices of 2.2 and 6.5 respectively.
<Study>UBS Casino Ratings and Target Prices (Table)
Stock Ratings and Target Prices: Various companies in the gaming sector have received updated ratings and target prices, with Melco Resorts rated as "Buy" and Sands China downgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy".
Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity is noted across several companies, with Sands China experiencing the highest short selling ratio at 52.992%.
Market Performance: Most companies listed, including Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, have seen declines in their stock prices, with Galaxy down by 4.522%.
Analyst Recommendations: CLSA has highlighted Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China as top picks following a positive report on Macau's gaming revenue for February.
JPM Suggests Focused Investment Strategy, Identifies GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice; February GGR Exceeds Expectations
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February increased by 4% year-on-year to MOP20.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a notable surge in the last week of February driven by high-end customer demand.
Investor Recommendations: JPMorgan advised investors to be selective, favoring GALAXY ENT with a target price of HKD52, while rating SJM HOLDINGS and MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT as Underweight with lower target prices.
M Stanley: GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD Favorably Viewed for Steady Cash Flow Growth and Dividends in the Casino Sector
Macau Casino Performance: The Lunar New Year performance for Macau casinos was moderate, raising concerns from Morgan Stanley about profit pressures due to promotional activities, despite better GGR performance compared to other Chinese consumers.
Positive Financial Indicators: Continuous growth in cash flow and dividends makes casino valuations attractive, with no AI risks impacting the sector.
Broker Recommendations: CLSA predicts a 7.4% YoY increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected visitor influx, favoring GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA for their high dividends.
Morgan Stanley Ratings: Morgan Stanley's ratings for Macau casinos include "Overweight" for SANDS CHINA, GALAXY ENT, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated "Underweight" due to potential EBITDA fluctuations.
HSBC Research Maintains Buy Ratings on SANDS CHINA LTD, GALAXY ENT, and MGM CHINA; Spring Festival Visitor Numbers Show Strong Travel Spending Resilience
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, averaging MOP786 million per day, with a notable increase during the Chinese New Year Golden Week.
Daily GGR Trends: The average daily GGR was initially sluggish but accelerated to MOP1.2-1.3 billion in the last three days of the period, reflecting a 10-15% increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Citi's GGR Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered its GGR forecast for Macau in February to MOP19.5 billion, indicating a more cautious outlook.
Stock Performance Overview: The report includes stock performance data for major gaming companies in Macau, highlighting short selling ratios and price changes for companies like Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Macau.
JPM Adjusts February GGR Projections, Names GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, with a daily average of MOP650 million, falling short of JPMorgan's expectations during the Lunar New Year period.
Forecast Adjustments: Due to mixed performance, JPMorgan revised its February GGR forecast to a flat to 2% increase year-on-year, down from a previous estimate of 2-5% growth, while maintaining a 12-13% growth expectation for the first two months of 2026.
Casino Stock Preferences: JPMorgan updated its preference order for Macau casino stocks, ranking Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick, followed by MGM China and Sands China, all rated Overweight, while Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were rated Underweight.
Market Reactions: The report noted a decline in casino stocks, with Sands China slipping 2.5% after Citi cut its GGR forecast, reflecting broader market concerns about the gaming sector's performance.
