Can Platinum Recover?
Platinum Market Overview: Platinum futures rose 10.38% in Q2 2024 but have struggled since, remaining around the $1,000 pivot point for nearly a decade, disappointing investors with low liquidity and price volatility compared to gold.
Future Outlook: Despite historical underperformance, rising production costs and a potential supply-demand deficit could lead to a significant price recovery for platinum, making it an attractive alternative for investors as gold continues to rise.
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Analyst Views on PPLT
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Platinum Prices Rise Amid Market Turmoil from China's Tax Changes
Platinum Market Volatility: Platinum has experienced significant volatility, with a record intraday price surge of 6.4% to $1,646 per ounce, following the announcement of the phase-out of a long-standing tax benefit in China, the largest consumer of platinum.
Impact of Tax Rebate Removal: The removal of the value-added tax rebate for platinum imports in China is expected to create a more competitive market, as it previously favored China Platinum Co. This change has led to increased premiums in Shanghai and speculation about buyers securing metal before the deadline.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: The platinum market is facing a structural deficit, with nearly 90% of production coming from South Africa. Despite rising prices, supply has not increased significantly, and demand, particularly from China, continues to grow, especially in jewelry and investment sectors.
Investment Performance: The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF has seen a substantial increase of 78.33% year-to-date, reflecting the strong performance of platinum as a commodity amid tight market conditions.
Top ETF Sectors from Last Week with Gains of 10% or More
Wall Street Performance: Last week, Wall Street experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, the Dow down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in four weeks.
Economic Indicators: August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed a core PCE increase of 2.9% annually, supporting expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end, while consumer sentiment slightly weakened with a 55.1 reading in September.
Federal Reserve Actions: The Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 in September, with a high probability of another cut in October, amid concerns over a weakening labor market.
Tariff Announcements and Commodity Performance: President Trump announced new tariffs on various imports starting October 1, while platinum and palladium prices surged due to supply issues and increased industrial demand, alongside significant gains in lithium and silver mining ETFs.
Platinum Market Experiences Most Constrained Conditions in Five Years, According to Report
Platinum Market Status: The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reports a persistent structural deficit in the platinum market, with supply expected to hit a five-year low while demand, particularly from investment and jewelry sectors, continues to rise.
Price Performance and Demand Trends: Platinum has significantly outperformed other commodities, reaching a ten-year high of $1,450 per ounce. Strong demand from China is driving investment and jewelry consumption, while automotive and industrial demand are projected to decline.
Significant Outflows from PPLT ETF
PPLT Share Price Analysis: PPLT's 52-week low is $82.35 and high is $133.8009, with the last trade recorded at $130.91, indicating a strong position near its high.
Understanding ETFs: ETFs function like stocks, trading in "units" that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, affecting the underlying assets and market dynamics.
Platinum Rally Is Not Enough To Incentivize New Supply
Platinum Market Dynamics: Platinum prices have surged over 47% in 2025 due to a combination of high demand and limited supply, leading to increased lease rates and concerns among industrial users who rely on leased metal for production.
Supply Challenges: Despite expectations for higher mine output, the market faces long-term structural imbalances with declining recycling supplies and significant barriers to new production, as highlighted by Valterra Platinum's recent performance and outlook.
Gold Isn't The Only Game In Town—Precious Metals ETFs Are Casting A Wider Net
Gold's Performance and Market Concerns: Gold has surged over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, but analysts warn it may be overpriced due to fear rather than fundamentals.
Rise of Alternative Precious Metals: Other metals like silver and platinum are gaining traction as investors seek alternatives; ETFs tracking these metals are becoming popular amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and ongoing inflation risks.
Platinum Prices Rise Amid Market Turmoil from China's Tax Changes
Platinum Market Volatility: Platinum has experienced significant volatility, with a record intraday price surge of 6.4% to $1,646 per ounce, following the announcement of the phase-out of a long-standing tax benefit in China, the largest consumer of platinum.
Impact of Tax Rebate Removal: The removal of the value-added tax rebate for platinum imports in China is expected to create a more competitive market, as it previously favored China Platinum Co. This change has led to increased premiums in Shanghai and speculation about buyers securing metal before the deadline.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: The platinum market is facing a structural deficit, with nearly 90% of production coming from South Africa. Despite rising prices, supply has not increased significantly, and demand, particularly from China, continues to grow, especially in jewelry and investment sectors.
Investment Performance: The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF has seen a substantial increase of 78.33% year-to-date, reflecting the strong performance of platinum as a commodity amid tight market conditions.
Top ETF Sectors from Last Week with Gains of 10% or More
Wall Street Performance: Last week, Wall Street experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, the Dow down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in four weeks.
Economic Indicators: August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed a core PCE increase of 2.9% annually, supporting expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end, while consumer sentiment slightly weakened with a 55.1 reading in September.
Federal Reserve Actions: The Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 in September, with a high probability of another cut in October, amid concerns over a weakening labor market.
Tariff Announcements and Commodity Performance: President Trump announced new tariffs on various imports starting October 1, while platinum and palladium prices surged due to supply issues and increased industrial demand, alongside significant gains in lithium and silver mining ETFs.
Platinum Market Experiences Most Constrained Conditions in Five Years, According to Report
Platinum Market Status: The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reports a persistent structural deficit in the platinum market, with supply expected to hit a five-year low while demand, particularly from investment and jewelry sectors, continues to rise.
Price Performance and Demand Trends: Platinum has significantly outperformed other commodities, reaching a ten-year high of $1,450 per ounce. Strong demand from China is driving investment and jewelry consumption, while automotive and industrial demand are projected to decline.
Significant Outflows from PPLT ETF
PPLT Share Price Analysis: PPLT's 52-week low is $82.35 and high is $133.8009, with the last trade recorded at $130.91, indicating a strong position near its high.
Understanding ETFs: ETFs function like stocks, trading in "units" that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, affecting the underlying assets and market dynamics.
Platinum Rally Is Not Enough To Incentivize New Supply
Platinum Market Dynamics: Platinum prices have surged over 47% in 2025 due to a combination of high demand and limited supply, leading to increased lease rates and concerns among industrial users who rely on leased metal for production.
Supply Challenges: Despite expectations for higher mine output, the market faces long-term structural imbalances with declining recycling supplies and significant barriers to new production, as highlighted by Valterra Platinum's recent performance and outlook.
Gold Isn't The Only Game In Town—Precious Metals ETFs Are Casting A Wider Net
Gold's Performance and Market Concerns: Gold has surged over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, but analysts warn it may be overpriced due to fear rather than fundamentals.
Rise of Alternative Precious Metals: Other metals like silver and platinum are gaining traction as investors seek alternatives; ETFs tracking these metals are becoming popular amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and ongoing inflation risks.
