Brokers Anticipate 77% Drop in BABA-W 2FQ Adjusted Net Profit; Emphasis on Instant Retail, Cloud, and AI Insights
Earnings Forecast: Alibaba is expected to announce its second fiscal quarter results for FY2026 on November 25, 2025, with non-GAAP net profit forecasts ranging from RMB8.238 billion to RMB11.2 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 69.3-77.4%.
Revenue Expectations: Revenue for the same quarter is projected to be between RMB236.229 billion and RMB247.652 billion, indicating a slight year-over-year drop of 0.1% to a rise of 4.7%, with a median estimate of RMB242.39 billion.
EBITA Projections: Analysts predict Alibaba's EBITA for the second quarter of FY2026 will range from RMB5.901 billion to RMB8.205 billion, marking a drastic year-over-year decrease of 79.8-85.5%.
Market Focus: Investors are particularly interested in Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth and the competitive landscape in food delivery and quick commerce, as well as the company's guidance on business trends and capital expenditures.
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<Research>CMSI Reduces BABA-W (09988.HK) Price Target to $170, Maintains Overweight Rating
Financial Results: BABA-W reported financial results for Q3 FY2025, with revenue and adjusted EBITA falling 2% and 27% below expectations, primarily due to weak e-commerce growth and high investments in instant retail and AI, resulting in a 7% drop in share price.
Growth Prospects: Despite the disappointing results, analysts believe BABA-W's growth prospects are improving, presenting a favorable entry point for long-term investors, leading to a reduction in target prices for its US stock and H-shares.
JPM Maintains Overweight Rating on BABA-W (09988.HK); Alibaba Cloud and Quick Commerce Valuations Ignored
JP Morgan's Analysis of Alibaba: JP Morgan's report indicates that Alibaba's stock is undervalued, primarily reflecting only its domestic e-commerce earnings, while overlooking the potential of Alibaba Cloud and quick commerce platforms.
Forecast Adjustments: The broker has lowered its revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts for Alibaba for FY26 and FY27, resulting in a reduction of the target stock price for both US and H-share listings.
Alibaba Cloud Growth: Alibaba Cloud has shown significant revenue growth, rebounding to 36% in the latest quarter, with AI product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for ten consecutive quarters.
Jefferies' Position: Jefferies has also adjusted its target price for Alibaba to $206 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing improvements in quick commerce fundamentals.
Alibaba's Qianwen Allegedly Introduces AI-Powered Ride-Hailing Functionality
Stock Performance: BABA-W (09988.HK) experienced a decline of 2.183%, with short selling amounting to $3.72 billion and a ratio of 14.488%.
AI Ride-Hailing Feature: Alibaba's Qianwen has introduced an AI ride-hailing feature that allows users to perform tasks like vehicle selection and scheduling through voice commands.
Integrated Services: Qianwen leverages Alibaba's ecosystem to provide a range of integrated services, including flight, hotel, and taxi bookings.
Analyst Outlook: UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on BABA-W, noting that while recent results missed expectations, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Joseph Tsai of BABA-W: The Primary Aim of AI Is to Make AI Applications Widely Accessible
Joseph Tsai's Speech: At the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting, Joseph Tsai discussed four key factors for the success and growth of the AI industry in China.
China's Manufacturing Advantage: Tsai highlighted that China possesses the world's largest manufacturing system, contributing nearly 30% of global manufacturing added value, which is crucial for AI development.
Digitalization and Data Utilization: The rapid digitalization of China's vast production network generates massive industrial data, which is essential for training industrial AI.
AI's Societal Impact: Tsai emphasized that the ultimate goal of AI is to not only develop advanced models but also to make AI applications widely accessible for societal benefits.
HKD8B Net Inflow to TRACKER FUND from Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) saw significant net inflows of HKD8 billion, with HKD5.9 billion from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD2.1 billion from Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Short Selling Activity: The short selling for TRACKER FUND reached $9.87 billion, with a ratio of 48.692%, while other notable stocks like HSCEI ETF and TENCENT also experienced substantial short selling.
Net Outflows: BABA-W (09988.HK) recorded the highest net outflow of HKD287.3 million, while HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK) had a net outflow of HKD242.4 million.
Overall Trading Summary: The total Southbound Trading net outflow was HKD0, accounting for 47.17% of the total transaction amount of HKD116.3 billion.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $52.5B, Representing 27.9% of Total Eligible Securities Turnover at Market Close
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $52.5 billion, accounting for 27.9% of the eligible securities turnover, an increase from 22.4% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) at $9.87 billion, CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) at $4.93 billion, and HSCEI ETF (02828.HK) at $3.66 billion.
Short Selling Ratios: TRACKER FUND has the highest short selling ratio at 70.6%, followed by CSOP HS TECH at 58.1% and HSCEI ETF at 61.3%.
Other Notable Stocks: Tencent (00700.HK) and Alibaba (09988.HK) also featured in the top five, with short selling amounts of $1.78 billion and $1.52 billion, respectively, and ratios of 20.3% and 26.2%.
<Research>CMSI Reduces BABA-W (09988.HK) Price Target to $170, Maintains Overweight Rating
Financial Results: BABA-W reported financial results for Q3 FY2025, with revenue and adjusted EBITA falling 2% and 27% below expectations, primarily due to weak e-commerce growth and high investments in instant retail and AI, resulting in a 7% drop in share price.
Growth Prospects: Despite the disappointing results, analysts believe BABA-W's growth prospects are improving, presenting a favorable entry point for long-term investors, leading to a reduction in target prices for its US stock and H-shares.
JPM Maintains Overweight Rating on BABA-W (09988.HK); Alibaba Cloud and Quick Commerce Valuations Ignored
JP Morgan's Analysis of Alibaba: JP Morgan's report indicates that Alibaba's stock is undervalued, primarily reflecting only its domestic e-commerce earnings, while overlooking the potential of Alibaba Cloud and quick commerce platforms.
Forecast Adjustments: The broker has lowered its revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts for Alibaba for FY26 and FY27, resulting in a reduction of the target stock price for both US and H-share listings.
Alibaba Cloud Growth: Alibaba Cloud has shown significant revenue growth, rebounding to 36% in the latest quarter, with AI product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for ten consecutive quarters.
Jefferies' Position: Jefferies has also adjusted its target price for Alibaba to $206 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing improvements in quick commerce fundamentals.
Alibaba's Qianwen Allegedly Introduces AI-Powered Ride-Hailing Functionality
Stock Performance: BABA-W (09988.HK) experienced a decline of 2.183%, with short selling amounting to $3.72 billion and a ratio of 14.488%.
AI Ride-Hailing Feature: Alibaba's Qianwen has introduced an AI ride-hailing feature that allows users to perform tasks like vehicle selection and scheduling through voice commands.
Integrated Services: Qianwen leverages Alibaba's ecosystem to provide a range of integrated services, including flight, hotel, and taxi bookings.
Analyst Outlook: UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on BABA-W, noting that while recent results missed expectations, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Joseph Tsai of BABA-W: The Primary Aim of AI Is to Make AI Applications Widely Accessible
Joseph Tsai's Speech: At the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting, Joseph Tsai discussed four key factors for the success and growth of the AI industry in China.
China's Manufacturing Advantage: Tsai highlighted that China possesses the world's largest manufacturing system, contributing nearly 30% of global manufacturing added value, which is crucial for AI development.
Digitalization and Data Utilization: The rapid digitalization of China's vast production network generates massive industrial data, which is essential for training industrial AI.
AI's Societal Impact: Tsai emphasized that the ultimate goal of AI is to not only develop advanced models but also to make AI applications widely accessible for societal benefits.
HKD8B Net Inflow to TRACKER FUND from Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) saw significant net inflows of HKD8 billion, with HKD5.9 billion from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD2.1 billion from Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Short Selling Activity: The short selling for TRACKER FUND reached $9.87 billion, with a ratio of 48.692%, while other notable stocks like HSCEI ETF and TENCENT also experienced substantial short selling.
Net Outflows: BABA-W (09988.HK) recorded the highest net outflow of HKD287.3 million, while HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK) had a net outflow of HKD242.4 million.
Overall Trading Summary: The total Southbound Trading net outflow was HKD0, accounting for 47.17% of the total transaction amount of HKD116.3 billion.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $52.5B, Representing 27.9% of Total Eligible Securities Turnover at Market Close
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $52.5 billion, accounting for 27.9% of the eligible securities turnover, an increase from 22.4% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) at $9.87 billion, CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) at $4.93 billion, and HSCEI ETF (02828.HK) at $3.66 billion.
Short Selling Ratios: TRACKER FUND has the highest short selling ratio at 70.6%, followed by CSOP HS TECH at 58.1% and HSCEI ETF at 61.3%.
Other Notable Stocks: Tencent (00700.HK) and Alibaba (09988.HK) also featured in the top five, with short selling amounts of $1.78 billion and $1.52 billion, respectively, and ratios of 20.3% and 26.2%.
